Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Glad to see NHC finally realized it wasn’t going to go from beast cat 4 to a 1 in 12 hours prior to LF lol. That was ridiculous. Should be strong cat 3 into Sanibel Island. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Glad to see NHC finally realized it wasn’t going to go from beast cat 4 to a 1 in 12 hours prior to LF lol. That was ridiculous. Should be strong cat 3 into Sanibel Island. Ya that was ridiculous, some of the public let their guard down for sure.. Unfortunately Marco Island to Sarasota under the gun for catastrophic storm surge and wind with only 24 hours to prepare now. Tampa metro looking to dodge a bullet being north now with potentially moderate storm surge, however now euro and gfs forecasting 25-50" of rain and widespread 80-100mph winds through a large part of western Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya that was ridiculous, some of the public let their guard down for sure.. Unfortunately Marco Island to Sarasota under the gun for catastrophic storm surge and wind with only 24 hours to prepare now. Tampa metro looking to dodge a bullet being north now with potentially moderate storm surge, however now euro and gfs forecasting 25-50" of rain and widespread 80-100mph winds through a large part of western Florida. I saw 15-30” maps. What has 50”? That would be unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I saw 15-30” maps. What has 50”? That would be unreal 6z GFS basically stalls near the coast for 24-36 hours. Don't think any other model has such an extreme stall. However, the NW quad is at risk of some excessive rainfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: 6z GFS basically stalls near the coast for 24-36 hours. Don't think any other model has such an extreme stall. However, the NW quad is at risk of some excessive rainfall. ya euro is 20-30" widespread though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Crazy the house I just stayed at in Cape Coral right on the Bay might be a 100% loss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I wonder if this thing ramps up to category 5 today. Didn't expect the core to be so strong and intact as it's about to enter the gulf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I asked my sister in law if they had good insurance............ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I saw 15-30” maps. What has 50”? That would be unreal I think 25-50 is the next shading on NWS maps? Pivotal total Euro qpf has some 25-28" amounts near Tampa Harvey had some 60" amounts (not that I would expect anything like that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 GFS is showing some 40" amounts oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Rainfall totals for the next 7 days from WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 32 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: GFS is showing some 40" amounts oof 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 39 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: GFS is showing some 40" amounts oof Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Cat 4 should be easy to do today provided the structure still looks excellent after fully crossing Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 23 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Where? On the Pivotal GFS total qpf map I looked at. Hover over the area and it will give you amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Cat 4 should be easy to do today provided the structure still looks excellent after fully crossing Cuba. Deeply concerning. Great structure and jet fuel water ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Just now, Hoth said: Deeply concerning. Great structure and jet fuel water ahead. Yeah, we'll see what the ceiling is today. This was an easy call for this to become a major long before it even developed. Fortunately, some weakening is possible as shear picks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: GFS is showing some 40" amounts oof I wish we could get 40" some day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Very impressive as it comes off of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Glad to see NHC finally realized it wasn’t going to go from beast cat 4 to a 1 in 12 hours prior to LF lol. That was ridiculous. Should be strong cat 3 into Sanibel Island. That was contingent on a further north track. The more southern LF changes things because it doesn't encounter the hostile conditions prior to LF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Rainfall totals for the next 7 days from WPC Get that PD 1 looking monstrosity out of the way now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Ian moving with the shear and getting ventilation from the trough. At this point only an EWRC would equal a less than major hurricane impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, Whineminster said: I wish we could get 40" some day. that's what she said? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Ian moving with the shear and getting ventilation from the trough. At this point only an EWRC would equal a less than major hurricane impact. Yea, my only pause in a less than MH LF was it gaining too much latitude, but that is by the boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Get that PD 1 looking monstrosity out of the way now. Agree but I would like some rain right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, my only pause in a less than MH LF was it gaining to much latitude, but that is by the boards. What are your thoughts about the track adjusting further east after LF, putting it back out (briefly) over the Atlantic? Seems more viable today than yesterday, but still a relatively low likelihood compared to it meandering just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: What are your thoughts about the track adjusting further east after LF, putting it back out (briefly) over the Atlantic? Seems more viable today than yesterday, but still a relatively low likelihood compared to it meandering just inland. I haven't really even considered it because I'm not really interested in that part of it. It was never an option up here, aside from remnant rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't really even considered it because I'm not really interested in that part of it. It was never an option up here, aside from remnant rains. Fair enough. I respect the consistency on avoiding things not of interest to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Fair enough. I respect the consistency on avoiding things not of interest to you. No, I mean...its fair game to discuss and certainly relevant. I just have zero interest in what this does beyond FL....conditions don't look favorable for regeneration, and I'm not in the habit of tracking moist carcasses. Its going to bring rain to the se, I'm sure....WHOOP DE DOO. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 We won't even see any cirrus from Ian up here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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