Tracking the Tropics

[Cyclone-68]

I’m headed to Clearwater in 10 days should be interesting how this evolves 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It always amazes me how a few folks don’t get it. The vast majority of us are into and fascinated by the weather for the extremes . Most folks here want to see and experience wind damage, heavy snows, severe weather , floods. People aren’t into weather for Coc k sunny days of 73 .

Now THATS the pot calling the kettle black!! I recall last Winter where you were all juiced up hoping for an ice storm, and I had said why would you wish for something that could have severe impacts on us. Lololol. How quickly we forget. 

[dryslot]

My sister inlaws place is in Largo, Not the place you want to be right now, They are actually under a mandatory evacuation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-poised-to-pose-major.html

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'm definately curious about how Tampa Bay would handle a surge of a storm hitting at an angle like that.   I assume that has been modelled pretty often (slosh model?)

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-poised-to-pose-major.html

Why all the arrows and lines?

[Modfan2]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-poised-to-pose-major.html

Nice plot Ray; while at this moment I am too  far east (pretty much on the I 95 sign above Palm Beach)  for any major impacts other than rain and some breezy weather at this point.

[Go Kart Mozart]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-poised-to-pose-major.html

Uh oh, My father-in-law lives in Dunedin...I can throw a rock from the front door to the Gulf.  He and his lady friend are with family in SC, but their townhouse is in big trouble!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why all the arrows and lines?

The line are to delineate between more and less preferred regions for landfall, and the arrow adds emphasis.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm definately curious about how Tampa Bay would handle a surge of a storm hitting at an angle like that.   I assume that has been modelled pretty often (slosh model?)

Downtown would flood badly if this slows to a crawl as some models show.   My guess would be minimal loss of life due to sufficient lead time with warnings but billions in insurance claims.

[DavisStraight]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The line are to delineate between more and less preferred regions for landfall, and the arrow adds emphasis.

I thought that was self explanatory

[MJO812]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

That wouldn't be good.

[Typhoon Tip]

wonder if we're heading for a 'pin prick eye'

looks like Ian's almost stationary in recent sat loops. 

as it drifts nnw/n it will be approaching some of the highest integrated oceanic heat content, world over.  If shear remains low and more importantly...outflow remains efficient, ...whatever is forecast for intensity, increase it

[Hoth]

4 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Uh oh, My father-in-law lives in Dunedin...I can throw a rock from the front door to the Gulf.  He and his lady friend are with family in SC, but their townhouse is in big trouble!

My great uncle is in the same situation. He's at about 4-5 ft about sea level just off the beach in Siesta Key. He's packing up his important documents and heading inland. If the current surge forecast verifies, his house is gonzo. A very sad situation.

[Torch Tiger]

It would be sweet to see Ian criss-cross back into the gulf stream.

[Ginx snewx]

18z Euro worst case scenario for Ian

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I think the 18z euro landfall over Punta Gorda is a viable option . I felt like that area wasn’t getting enough attention based on the fact you just needed the NE trough to be a tiny bit deeper and poof influences the steering flow to adjust landfall a bit faster (stronger storm ) and not being left behind to drift around Tampa 

Not that this will be what happens but it’s been a option .
 

I also think ensembles in general are under-dispersive and do a poor account on some set ups where the viable options are Not well representing of future options and they are counted on too much . 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro worst case for Ian

That is the track for highest winds at landfall 

[kdxken]

Friend of mine prepping in Fort Myers. There could be boats crashing through the window but she ain't moving if they're still making martinis.

 

[Ginx snewx]

Looking pretty ominous for the Tampa area. Yikes

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ian has some dry air entrained . Definitely not looking like a classic cane so far but it has come a long way from Saturday nites appearance 

[Modfan2]

Under a Tropical Storm warning now in SE FL.

[Ginx snewx]

Amazing how more than 3 models now drive this center right up Tampa Bay. What a disaster coming.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Amazing how more than 3 models now drive this center right up Tampa Bay. What a disaster coming.

Euro looked south and not as bad for the area? Looked worse for Charlotte Harbor. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

This would leave a mark.  Shallow bay. Oof

 

[Hoth]

F***, a lot of these runs will make my grandmother and great uncle homeless. F***.

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

F***, a lot of these runs will make my grandmother and great uncle homeless. F***.

My friend is building a house in Palm harbor just got the windows in. 6 ft above sea level. I think they'll become portholes.

[Baroclinic Zone]

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

My friend is building a house in Palm harbor just got the windows in. 6 ft above sea level. I think they'll become portholes.

Ugh. My grandmother's condo is on the 5th floor facing the beach. Wind is her big concern. My great uncle's house is just off the beach at about 3-4 feet above sea level. Water will be his problem. They've evacuated inland, but this will be a tough hit for them. Both are north of 90 and have major health problems.