Tracking the Tropics

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

CAT 2 seems NBD for FL, IMO.  Even the rain seems to just sink into the limestone they don't seem to ever flood 

Except for the billion dollar disaster with 10 to 20 inches. 

October 3 – The precursor disturbance to Tropical Storm Leslie produces 10–20 inches (255–510 mm) of rainfall across southeastern Florida, flooding about 93,000 houses. The flooding causes $950 million in damage (2000 USD), along with three indirect deaths.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, ROOSTA said:

 

Wait. With all the forecasted precipitation, won't take much wind to bring down trees and cut transmission lines. Widespread outages for days. I went 6 days without on just a brush-by a few years ago.   

I mean in terms of structural damage.

[Modfan2]

7 hours ago, Whineminster said:

CAT 2 seems NBD for FL, IMO.  Even the rain seems to just sink into the limestone they don't seem to ever flood 

During Irma parts of St Lucie County and neighboring Indian River counties received 21” and there was quite a bit of flooding.

[CoastalWx]

Well as we get closer, looks like the euro got this one. 

[CoastalWx]

Kind of stalls and weakens a bit too. Flaccid solution.

[CoastalWx]

Although euro now stalls and goes towards Far East panhandle so that’s a change too when it brought it over the peninsula.  As usual both adjust. 

[dendrite]

The rare Cedar Key landfall?

[weatherwiz]

Now that Ian is getting its act together with a more well-defined center we should get a much better idea of exact track probably with 12z guidance. Still saw some jumping and wavering with 0z/6z

[CoastalWx]

So now the euro goes west of TPA and then curves NW.  

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So now the euro goes west of TPA and then curves NW.  

Models having a lot of trouble narrowing the goalposts. Must be a mess for emergency managers.

[dendrite]

Always fun to point-click the hires models.

Date: 60 hour NAM valid 18Z WED 28 SEP 22
Station: 25.84,-85.77
Latitude:   25.84
Longitude: -85.77
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000  -681                                                                 
  1  950  -227                                                                 
SFC  926    -0  27.6  27.5 100  0.1  27.6  62 114 307.4 312.2 303.2 385.8 25.69
  3  900   253  24.1  24.1 100 -0.0  24.2  70 174 306.3 310.3 300.8 371.1 21.47
  4  850   754  21.7  21.7 100 -0.0  21.8  80 187 308.9 312.6 300.3 368.6 19.63
  5  800  1281  19.8  19.9 100 -0.0  19.9  90 186 312.3 315.8 300.5 369.4 18.54
  6  750  1838  18.1  18.1 100 -0.0  18.2  97 176 316.3 319.7 300.9 371.8 17.75
  7  700  2429  15.8  15.8 100 -0.0  15.8  99 161 319.9 323.1 300.9 371.7 16.33
  8  650  3060  13.5  13.5 100 -0.0  13.5 101 160 324.2 327.2 301.1 372.9 15.12
  9  600  3733  10.4  10.4 100 -0.0  10.4 109 154 328.2 330.8 300.9 371.8 13.35
 10  550  4457   8.4   8.4 100  0.0   8.4 112 136 334.0 336.6 301.6 376.4 12.68
 11  500  5243   4.2   4.2 100  0.0   4.2 110 120 338.2 340.3 301.2 373.6 10.42

 

[dendrite]

892mb in the eye and above freezing until 345mb. lol

Date: 60 hour NAM valid 18Z WED 28 SEP 22
Station: 25.54,-85.77
Latitude:   25.54
Longitude: -85.77
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000 -1017                                                                 
  1  950  -569                                                                 
  2  900   -80                                                                 
SFC  892    -0  29.0  28.8  99  0.2  28.9 195  37 312.2 317.7 305.6 402.6 28.87
  4  850   431  26.4  25.9  97  0.4  26.0 207  39 313.8 318.6 304.3 393.5 25.48
  5  800   969  26.7  21.5  73  5.2  22.7 206  40 319.6 323.6 303.0 384.8 20.52
  6  750  1541  24.8  18.9  70  5.8  20.4 206  41 323.4 327.1 302.8 383.6 18.68
  7  700  2145  21.9  16.0  69  5.9  17.6 207  45 326.8 330.0 302.3 380.6 16.55
  8  650  2788  19.3  12.5  65  6.8  14.4 209  44 330.8 333.6 301.8 377.5 14.14
  9  600  3476  17.1   8.8  58  8.3  11.4 211  45 335.9 338.3 301.6 376.2 11.96
 10  550  4216  14.3   4.8  53  9.5   8.0 211  46 341.1 343.1 301.4 375.0  9.87
 11  500  5018  11.4   0.9  48 10.6   4.8 212  46 347.0 348.7 301.6 375.8  8.20
 12  450  5894   8.4  -4.4  40 12.8   0.9 215  45 353.8 355.1 301.6 376.1  6.14
 13  400  6861   4.9 -10.8  31 15.7  -3.4 219  42 361.4 362.3 301.8 377.3  4.21
 14  350  7940   0.6 -18.8  22 19.4  -8.2 223  37 369.6 370.1 302.1 379.3  2.47
 15  300  9164  -5.9 -32.9  10 27.0 -14.6 224  23 377.1 377.3 302.3 380.5  0.80
 16  250 10562 -17.0 -52.1   3 35.1 -23.1 229  15 380.8 380.8 302.5 381.4  0.12

 

[CoastalWx]

I love how the spread is increasing.

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love how the spread is increasing.

Wish it would slow down more so I could get there  

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Wish it would slow down more so I could get there  

Eh, if this stalls and weakens...not sure if this would be all that exciting to be honest.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Eh, if this stalls and weakens...not sure if this would be all that exciting to be honest.

Haha I was thinking that too. Best case for me personally would be an east shift over the peninsula and then take my chances with a second landfall in the SE. Ain't likely though. 

I don't think this is it for the season and I just had a great chase, so not too much sleep lost if this one doesn't work out. 

[tunafish]

Based on current guidance, what areas are of most concern for storm surge?

TIA

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Eh, if this stalls and weakens...not sure if this would be all that exciting to be honest.

Seems boring 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

892mb in the eye and above freezing until 345mb. lol

Date: 60 hour NAM valid 18Z WED 28 SEP 22
Station: 25.54,-85.77
Latitude:   25.54
Longitude: -85.77
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000 -1017                                                                 
  1  950  -569                                                                 
  2  900   -80                                                                 
SFC  892    -0  29.0  28.8  99  0.2  28.9 195  37 312.2 317.7 305.6 402.6 28.87
  4  850   431  26.4  25.9  97  0.4  26.0 207  39 313.8 318.6 304.3 393.5 25.48
  5  800   969  26.7  21.5  73  5.2  22.7 206  40 319.6 323.6 303.0 384.8 20.52
  6  750  1541  24.8  18.9  70  5.8  20.4 206  41 323.4 327.1 302.8 383.6 18.68
  7  700  2145  21.9  16.0  69  5.9  17.6 207  45 326.8 330.0 302.3 380.6 16.55
  8  650  2788  19.3  12.5  65  6.8  14.4 209  44 330.8 333.6 301.8 377.5 14.14
  9  600  3476  17.1   8.8  58  8.3  11.4 211  45 335.9 338.3 301.6 376.2 11.96
 10  550  4216  14.3   4.8  53  9.5   8.0 211  46 341.1 343.1 301.4 375.0  9.87
 11  500  5018  11.4   0.9  48 10.6   4.8 212  46 347.0 348.7 301.6 375.8  8.20
 12  450  5894   8.4  -4.4  40 12.8   0.9 215  45 353.8 355.1 301.6 376.1  6.14
 13  400  6861   4.9 -10.8  31 15.7  -3.4 219  42 361.4 362.3 301.8 377.3  4.21
 14  350  7940   0.6 -18.8  22 19.4  -8.2 223  37 369.6 370.1 302.1 379.3  2.47
 15  300  9164  -5.9 -32.9  10 27.0 -14.6 224  23 377.1 377.3 302.3 380.5  0.80
 16  250 10562 -17.0 -52.1   3 35.1 -23.1 229  15 380.8 380.8 302.5 381.4  0.12

 

Not quite Wilma...meh

[weatherwiz]

The duration of TS force winds and hurricane force gusts could be pretty impressive. GFS bufkit for TPA has some pretty prolonged conditions. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Eh, if this stalls and weakens...not sure if this would be all that exciting to be honest.

It would increase the level of storm surge impact though. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It would increase the level of storm surge impact though. 

It will also depend on where that stalls,  but yeah for sure the storm surge impact in Tampa is probably the most pressing in this whole thing.

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It would increase the level of storm surge impact though. 

True, but I definitely do not chase water. 

That 12z GFS run would be close to catastrophic for Tampa and the surrounding area. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

True, but I definitely do not chase water. 

That 12z GFS run would be close to catastrophic for Tampa and the surrounding area. 

I thought it was the whole package though. If you’re just chasing wind damage, you’re better off joining hands with Wizzy and head to Oklahoma in April. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I thought it was the whole package though. If you’re just chasing wind damage, you’re better off joining hands with Wizzy and head to Oklahoma in April. 

Underestimating surge is the quickest way to end up with a totaled car or dead lol. Not much interest in that. Hurricanes bring much broader (and longer duration) high winds. Love severe and photogenic tors, but there's nothing like watching and experiencing extreme winds in action. 

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Underestimating surge is the quickest way to end up with a totaled car or dead lol. Not much interest in that. Hurricanes bring much broader (and longer duration) high winds. Love severe and photogenic tors, but there's nothing like watching and experiencing extreme winds in action. 

It always amazes me how a few folks don’t get it. The vast majority of us are into and fascinated by the weather for the extremes . Most folks here want to see and experience wind damage, heavy snows, severe weather , floods. People aren’t into weather for Coc k sunny days of 73 .

[ROOSTA]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

The duration of TS force winds and hurricane force gusts could be pretty impressive. GFS bufkit for TPA has some pretty prolonged conditions. 

I'm well inland. Presently, latest model forecasts "if correct" re: Ian's track will be 75-100 miles to the W. Sustained TS winds will begin WED night and not abate till FRI morning. 
THAT'S A GOOD POUNDING.   

[Hoth]

Ugh, my great uncle lives just off the beach in Siesta Key, probably just above sea level. My grandmother is just down the beach. GFS is a bad look for them. Hope this thing stays out at sea.

[radarman]

5 hours ago, dendrite said:

Always fun to point-click the hires models

gotta love a 62mb drop in 4 hours

[radarman]

HWRF chokes Ian out with dry air and personally I think there may be something to that idea, even if overdone there.