40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2022 Author Share Posted September 25, 2022 51 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Seems like there will be a substantial amount of shear with the strong trough just off to the north. I would think the two biggest concerns are going to be storm surge and maybe rainfall/flooding. Looks like the system could slow down quite a bit too. Wouldn't be surprised to see a small area of 15-20'' of rain. Yea, this is why I was saying the further west it goes, the weaker the LF. N gulf coast will primarily bring hydro issues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 925mb from the 12z GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 If Ian could just slow down a little more I think I could get there. It’ll be close. Ugh. What a chase in NS. Damage all the way back to New Brunswick. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 A clip of the damage survey. Will probably upload the longer one tomorrow. Time to track Ian. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Euro still towards Tampa. Nice model war. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Given how euro was so Far East and now correcting west, not a good performance. GFS now capitulated to Euro. UKMET and Euro the same. Epic disaster for Tampa area on both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, this is why I was saying the further west it goes, the weaker the LF. N gulf coast will primarily bring hydro issues. I would bet LF near Tampa. Euro UKMET both have best initialization 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: The GFS has become the superior model with tropical. There have been a few storms over the last 2-3 years where it was GFS vs. everything else and the GFS came out on top. Wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 GFS all alone now with panhandle track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS now capitulated to Euro. UKMET and Euro the same. Epic disaster for Tampa area on both. I wouldn’t lock that in yet. I just want a euro fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wut It’s been handling tropicals well overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Euro is what cat 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I wouldn’t lock that in yet. I just want a euro fail. EPS on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is what cat 2? Almost all models slow to a crawl. Big water amounts now showing up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s been handling tropicals well overall. Except the tens of fake storms it generates. I mean we haven't had a tropical system but the GFS has modeled at least 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Except the tens of fake storms it generates. I mean we haven't had a tropical system but the GFS has modeled at least 4 I don’t care about day 10 storms. It’s inside day 5. If this goes to Tampa I’ll b glad to be knighted by the euro. I’m not forecasting so happily observing from the outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I'm going to need a boat. From the onset of this tropical system as a threat since what a week, 10 days ago I've really tried to avoid the run-to-run model craze. It's crunch time, it's coming, I'm hooked. It was the GFS that in one run had 40-50" of TOTAL-P, that run also featured a direct hit. Whew! A weakening system with landfall near the Big Bend on the present trajectory is still a severe hit for my location. Ian appears to be getting its act together and because of that the trend to track into the Pan Handle are diminishing. Time to stock-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 hour ago, ROOSTA said: I'm going to need a boat. From the onset of this tropical system as a threat since what a week, 10 days ago I've really tried to avoid the run-to-run model craze. It's crunch time, it's coming, I'm hooked. It was the GFS that in one run had 40-50" of TOTAL-P, that run also featured a direct hit. Whew! A weakening system with landfall near the Big Bend on the present trajectory is still a severe hit for my location. Ian appears to be getting its act together and because of that the trend to track into the Pan Handle are diminishing. Time to stock-up. Where are you in Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is what cat 2? DT posted Cat 1-2 for Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Flooding concern prob the biggest threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Flooding concern prob the biggest threat. Surge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Surge? I’m thinking rainfall. But surge could be bad depending on individual bays and the angle it is pushing. that’s a lot of rain modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Might want to rethink amount of forest damage Ray. Holy crap did NS take a beating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Where are you in Florida Hey Steve, Altoona LAT 28.97 LON 81.63 ASL 108FT. Wide-open area so there will not be flying projectiles. I'm going to have to stock-up on water and non-perishables. The stores should open back-up quickly. It's the electric I'm really worried about. Other concerns to lesser degrees. Big Old Southern Oaks surround the house, I mean huge they must be over 200yrs. old. No window protection. Need a battery back-up for at least 1 computer to run observations and keep the camera running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2022 Author Share Posted September 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Might want to rethink amount of forest damage Ray. Holy crap did NS take a beating All I said was it didn't match '38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 25, 2022 Author Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: DT posted Cat 1-2 for Tampa Wind won't be the story with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wind won't be the story with this one. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 big jump east on the GFS congrats Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: All I said was it didn't match '38. Might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: Hey Steve, Altoona LAT 28.97 LON 81.63 ASL 108FT. Wide-open area so there will not be flying projectiles. I'm going to have to stock-up on water and non-perishables. The stores should open back-up quickly. It's the electric I'm really worried about. Other concerns to lesser degrees. Big Old Southern Oaks surround the house, I mean huge they must be over 200yrs. old. No window protection. Need a battery back-up for at least 1 computer to run observations and keep the camera running. Family in Holiday and Port Richey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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