CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 This thing will be in the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This thing will be in the panhandle. Hopefully it rockets up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hopefully it rockets up this way Nope, strong high pressure and dry air should weaken this quite a bit, It is not the right setup for a rocket. Timing would have to change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: Nope, strong high pressure and dry air should weaken this quite a bit, It is not the right setup for a rocket. Timing would have to change. Yeah not for us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Model Intensity Guidance has been rather concerning since this thing was even a little tickle. Lots of members into the Cat 4 guidance. I would think if Ian avoids Cuba all together or just skirts the western edge higher intensity would be rather likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah not for us Euro failed us again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 50 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro failed us again I’m on team America lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 He comimg 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 ^ He drinking 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 the Euro didn't "fail" jack shit at 144+ hours in the TC prognostic space - ...get a grip 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2022 Author Share Posted September 24, 2022 I still say you want this in faster, and further south if you want an intense LF. I suspect a N GOM collapser if not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still say you want this is faster, and further south if you want an intense LF. I suspect a N GOM collapser if not. Hope so, don’t want any part of it; a Tampa north LF is fine by me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: ‘38 was moving faster than 40mph? 56 mph I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It looks like Bob down the cape. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Looks like more members on the 0z model intensity guidance are into cat 4 now disclaimer: I'm a beer deep into a 9.5% that I LOVE so I could be seeing things 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I am heading to the Jackson NH area for a vacation October 3rd. What are the chances Ian will make his way up Here by then? Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah not for us Some remnants could eventually get here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 36 minutes ago, Roger said: I am heading to the Jackson NH area for a vacation October 3rd. What are the chances Ian will make his way up Here by then? Thanks 1-2% ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Euro eats shot again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Euro eats shot again It's funny all the globals have Cat 2/3 at LF while all the Hurricane models take Ian down to TS force at LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Euro eats shot again GFS way to fast with development. EPS into Tampa. Best bet right now is Euro Suite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Since moving to FL. I've experienced several Tropical systems luckily; I'm located well inland and not taken a direct (severe) hit per se. 89mph. has been the highest recorded wind speed. I moved 2 yrs. ago down-the-street. Previous dwelling was a hand-build log structure, could and will withstand Category 4 for many years to come. I outfitted with a generator, new roof, a pool the buyer purchased a special home. Moved to an expansive property (10 acres) surrounded by cut pasture with few trees. House is brick circa '78, 2400sq ft. All because I chased some tail, that Beast-of-burden is long gone thankfully...anywho... my health has prevented me from enjoying all the new place has to offer. The GFS has been consistent trending W for several runs. The EURO has been steadfast S and E with slight adjustments to the track W. Given the timeframe and the storm has finally formed the BADBOYS seem to be coming to a compromise. A W coast scrapper? Still time to prepare, still time for the models to (models to do what models do) slight E track trend on the GFS, slight W track on the EURO. ROOSTA ON WATCH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 9 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Euro eats shot again ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 More wx boredom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: It's funny all the globals have Cat 2/3 at LF while all the Hurricane models take Ian down to TS force at LF The globals have depicted hostile conditions on approach to the US mainland really since the tropical wave was first approaching the windward islands. Seems like chasers are always way more impressed by strengthening storms than rapidly weakening ones regardless of how strong they are coming in. This could be the opposite of a Charley or a Michael. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Passing through the northern shoreline of NS and there is substantial damage. Sparsely populated, low signal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, radarman said: The globals have depicted hostile conditions on approach to the US mainland really since the tropical wave was first approaching the windward islands. Seems like chasers are always way more impressed by strengthening storms than rapidly weakening ones regardless of how strong they are coming in. This could be the opposite of a Charley or a Michael. Seems like there will be a substantial amount of shear with the strong trough just off to the north. I would think the two biggest concerns are going to be storm surge and maybe rainfall/flooding. Looks like the system could slow down quite a bit too. Wouldn't be surprised to see a small area of 15-20'' of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 48 minutes ago, radarman said: The globals have depicted hostile conditions on approach to the US mainland really since the tropical wave was first approaching the windward islands. Seems like chasers are always way more impressed by strengthening storms than rapidly weakening ones regardless of how strong they are coming in. This could be the opposite of a Charley or a Michael. Euro is a beast with 2 foot rain totals as well near Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro is a beast with 2 foot rain totals as well near Tampa Given how euro was so Far East and now correcting west, not a good performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 The GFS has become the superior model with tropical. There have been a few storms over the last 2-3 years where it was GFS vs. everything else and the GFS came out on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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