40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m still floored that the models are still showing this as an 18h forecast. You look at that time stamp, and expect to see 320 from the GFS...but 18 on the EURO? Surreal... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Meanwhile, the 12z Euro is a nuke for FL and has the system intensify again off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1573372444609503233?s=46&t=KvsDqd_t6_pNSI8V9lwVKQ Totally...no argument. But like I said, the warning system is no comparison today, obviously...which helps mitigate death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m still floored that the models are still showing this as an 18h forecast. Amazing how zeroed in they’ve been on that landfall location as well. Very little variation in days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 Just now, Hoth said: Amazing how zeroed in they’ve been on that landfall location as well. Very little variation in days. Once they get picked up by a trough, its a pretty easy forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Once they get picked up by a trough, its a pretty easy forecast. Good point. Dealing with large-scale features is probably easier to peg down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Meanwhile, the 12z Euro is a nuke for FL and has the system intensify again off the east coast. The GFS is a good example of why the ultimate landfall intensity is a real question.....the fact that it may interact significantly with that mid latitude trough prior to LF gives me pause. Its going to need to veer in fast and south to be intense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Good point. Dealing with large-scale features is probably easier to peg down. The whole reason why tropical systems are usually a PIA is because the tropics are governed by predominately meager steering influences, and then timing the precise interaction with the westerlies is a whole other headache. Once the westerlies pick them up, its a mail-in forecast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Fiona is really starting to haul ass. Anyone know what the forward motion is presently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Fiona is really starting to haul ass. Anyone know what the forward motion is presently? 35MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 35MPH Impressive. Not ‘38, but still can’t be that many storms in the annals moving that fast in the basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Euro almost Hazels Hermine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Also looks like storm slows down a little as it does it's extra-tropical transition over Nova Scotia. Seems like it lingers there spinning for a day or so before it regains forward speed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: I spoke with them because I thought I lost my wallet with my work ID and a few credit cards in it. Luckily this man called me and said he picked up my wallet on the floor . Wife and I met the guy at his house in Sandwich. Ham and cheese? Or Bologna? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 So cool that @WxWatcher007is up there. How's the country up there? Scenic? I've never been past St. John's NB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Eps ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 JMA stalls TD9 for 3 days near/over Central/S FL 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Ian ! We Watch !!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 40 minutes ago, TheBudMan said: Ian ! We Watch !!! I thought potential Hermine was the one to watch or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: I thought potential Hermine was the one to watch or am I missing something? Fish storm out at sea took hermine name first so now it’s on to Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Diggiebot said: Fish storm out at sea took hermine name first so now it’s on to Ian Ahhh That makes sense. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: So cool that @WxWatcher007is up there. How's the country up there? Scenic? I've never been past St. John's NB It’s beautiful up here. I’m just waiting to see when this makes the turn north… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 It’s beautiful up here. I’m just waiting to see when this makes the turn north…I’m wondering if the momentum is going to drag this east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: I’m wondering if the momentum is going to drag this east a bit. 18z GFS still hooks it west as it transitions tonight and the Euro will probably do the same. It’s just a waiting game to see if it happens. This is always my most nerve wracking time but the waiting is always tough. Tropical definitely ain’t for the faint of heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Ryan says EPS very interesting for SNE for Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 I'm in deep DOO-DOO. Starting to get that feeling. For those who want, well you can have it! Nothing "fun" about it. A stall, that seems to be depicted by most the models would be worse case scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan says EPS very interesting for SNE for Ian I mean why wouldn’t it, I close down here in 2 weeks and the few days later in CT….FML! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 We at E MA wx forecasting for We in SW Florida 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Looks like Marco Island could be the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Spent afternoon and evening @ Newport . Newport bouy jacked up to 9.5ft @18 after 6 which explains why some absolutely massive sets appeared around 630 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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