STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: The core just got ejected again ... Couple hours ago ( still is the case ) minoring anvil trajectories out ahead of Fiona were tending more toward the N as opposed to right at her - that implied lowering shear. But it doesn't appear the TC is responding to a more favorable environment - so the speculation may not be seeing some layers... Doesn’t appear to be a more favorable environment now or modeled to be now ..was there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Doesn’t appear to be a more favorable environment now or modeled to be now ..was there There is a sliver of a bit lighter shear on the analysis, but it may admittedly be irrelevant. Its not a huge deal... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 The whole tenor off the east coast is going to shift dramatically over the next week. A WAR is going to build in starting 2nd half of the week and continue to build into the following week. I’m not sold on the first big boot out to sea. The ridge axis out west as highlighted by the CPC, show plenty of wave spacing for UL heights to pump over eastern New England. The ensembles hint, similarly. My expectation is the UL heights build and push from east to west during this time frame. Key will be in how fast this happens to steer Fiona, toward or away from the CONUS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Trying to decide whether to leave Turks and Caicos tomorrow or Sunday vs wait out the storm here... Hmmmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, alex said: Trying to decide whether to leave Turks and Caicos tomorrow or Sunday vs wait out the storm here... Hmmmmm When were you originally scheduled to leave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: When were you originally scheduled to leave? Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 53 minutes ago, alex said: Wednesday The weather weenie in me would stay. I’d roll that dice with how it looks. Place won’t get razed but might be a little interesting. Might be selfish but interesting weather is a strong pull. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 18z euro looks juicy for Turks and Caicos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Yeah it’s close. Unless you had the stomach (no disrespect) to stay and let the chase come to you and live with the consequences, I’d probably prepare to leave by Sunday. You have to consider if you could deal with potentially being stuck at least a few days after a hurricane, with power out and scarce supplies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah it’s close. Unless you had the stomach (no disrespect) to stay and let the chase come to you and live with the consequences, I’d probably prepare to leave by Sunday. You have to consider if you could deal with potentially being stuck at least a few days after a hurricane, with power out and scarce supplies. To me it would depend on the safety of the structure and as long as it wasn’t On the ocean in a surge zone . These canes can blow up very fast in that area . Could be fun My only worry would be RI / if it’s motion slowed down in area and gave it more time to cook Can model watch for another day as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: To me it would depend on the safety of the structure and as long as it wasn’t On the ocean in a surge zone . These canes can blow up very fast in that area . Could be fun My only worry would be RI / if it’s motion slowed down in area and gave it more time to cook Oh yeah, flood risk would be top of mind. If there's any risk there it's an easy call to go. Even big wind can be manageable in a sound structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 At least one of us is close to the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Doesn’t Alex have small kids? That would play into my decision. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 22 minutes ago, mreaves said: Doesn’t Alex have small kids? That would play into my decision. That definitely would sway the decision swiftly to get off the island. I was thinking of just adults trying to take care of themselves. Young kids, no thanks even in just a power outage, ha. Don’t put them in harms way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2022 Author Share Posted September 17, 2022 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is a sliver of a bit lighter shear on the analysis, but it may admittedly be irrelevant. Its not a huge deal... Winds back up to 60mph....AWT Shear should pick up again later Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Euro track Friday to Saturday tried to hook this back to SE Canada . Not sure if that is actually a legit option . Had sub 540 heights in a cold pool over W MD . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 NHC 5 am disco predicts Fiona encounters “slightly more favorable conditions over the next 24-48 hours “ . I would not be surprised to see her as a cane hitting DR Also appears to be potential for a center formation currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Alaska tropical >>> New England tropical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 9 hours ago, powderfreak said: That definitely would sway the decision swiftly to get off the island. I was thinking of just adults trying to take care of themselves. Young kids, no thanks even in just a power outage, ha. Don’t put them in harms way. Talked to locals. Apparently Provo has a very strong infrastructure and they usually don't lose power in hurricanes. We are staying at a luxury resort so I doubt that they're keen on putti guests at risk, either. Wouldn't be very good publicity for Sandals. 2.5 days to go but currently inclined to stay. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Also read that the island is not prone to storm surges due to its shore topography (lots of walls which made for great diving). That would be my main concern given that Im in an oceanfront suite. Interestingly, Grand Turk, Salt Cay and some of the other parts of the chain tend to fare much worse. What to do, what do. As of right now airlines are not waiving change fees so it'd cost me about $2000 to fly out today or tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 I’d be more worried about power losses and road damage for when you fly out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 35 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro track Friday to Saturday tried to hook this back to SE Canada . Not sure if that is actually a legit option . Had sub 540 heights in a cold pool over W MD . Hmm. I’d like others to chime in, but it seems the overnight operational guidance turned that trough from a progressive kicker to something that cuts off. It could be a hiccup suite like the ones that drove this into land a few days ago, but if that becomes a trend, it’s a substantial shift even if it’s just for maritime Canada. It happens at different times on the guidance which results in radically different outcomes between the Euro/CMC and GFS, but it’s there. I didn’t expect that. The Euro in particular has been stubbornly holding onto this one. Not really changing my odds from yesterday, but it’s interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hmm. I’d like others to chime in, but it seems the overnight operational guidance turned that trough from a progressive kicker to something that cuts off. It could be a hiccup suite like the ones that drove this into land a few days ago, but if that becomes a trend, it’s a substantial shift even if it’s just for maritime Canada. It happens at different times on the guidance which results in radically different outcomes between the Euro/CMC and GFS, but it’s there. 26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I didn’t expect that. The Euro in particular has been stubbornly holding onto this one. Not really changing my odds from yesterday, but it’s interesting. The closeness in time of the first trough means it’s well enough resolved to see that the orientation is too far east; despite being deep, it becomes an NS—east story. Now if Fiona stays weak and meanders in the Bahamas, missing the D6 trough, the east coast is open to a hit seeing the WAR that builds over top. The D10 long wave pattern is pretty damn standard look for a hit/very close approach of a tropical system, whereas D6 pattern is “not a chance”. Bottom line is Fiona needs to miss the D6 trough or we are all spectators for NS and NL. If not, very exciting to track—many “in the game”. Now short term- The land interaction with PR and Hispaniola is adding significant complexity to the short term intensity guidance and therefore the ultimate track. Weak = south/west; strong =north/east. Model guidance is classically conveying too much certainty with respect to this and many tracking are falling for it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The closeness in time of the first trough means it’s well enough resolved to see that the orientation is too far east; despite being deep, it becomes an NS—east story. Now if Fiona stays weak and meanders in the Bahamas, missing the D6 trough, the east coast is open to a hit seeing the WAR that builds over top. The D10 long wave pattern is pretty damn standard look for a hit/very close approach of a tropical system, whereas D6 pattern is “not a chance”. Bottom line is Fiona needs to miss the D6 trough or we are all spectators for NS and NL. If not, very exciting to track—many “in the game”. Now short term- The land interaction with PR and Hispaniola is adding significant complexity to the short term intensity guidance and therefore the ultimate track. Weak = south/west; strong =north/east. Model guidance is classically conveying too much certainty with respect to this and many tracking are falling for it. Thanks. I think it's going to be hard for this to miss either trough. The first still looks to turn it northwestward/northward into the weakness between ridges--the weakness is there no matter what, and that D6 trough looks too big to miss. It does look disorganized currently per recon and microwave imagery, so I do think we'll need to wait to see how Hispaniola impacts it before locking things in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Thanks. I think it's going to be hard for this to miss either trough. The first still looks to turn it northwestward/northward into the weakness between ridges--the weakness is there no matter what, and that D6 trough looks too big to miss. It does look disorganized currently per recon and microwave imagery, so I do think we'll need to wait to see how Hispaniola impacts it before locking things in. What is the last time stamp on the microwave you see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What is the last time stamp on the microwave you see 10:37z so just a few hours ago. There is another new blowup of convection near the center, but you don't really see a nascent core developing yet here or with some of the recon obs on the first pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 At this point Fiona ain't missing the day 6 trough so now we'll have to see what the orientation of that trough is. Euro is very different compared to other guidance with it. How far west Fiona gets also makes a big difference. You'd need huge large scale changes for any sort of impact here though. SE Canada is easier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 If I can just weenie out for a second, that 00z Euro run was an all timer of a run for NS. I mean my God lol. And yes, to really weenie out--the busted gust product 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Ya that’s a thing of beauty for sure…why can’t we ever get a look or two from a hottie like that??? We always stuck with sloppy seconds and thirds if we’re even that fortunate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: If I can just weenie out for a second, that 00z Euro run was an all timer of a run for NS. I mean my God lol. And yes, to really weenie out--the busted gust product Looks like 1938 but for Nova Scotia! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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