40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Tropical is my thing and all I need is something reasonably chaseable, so I’m interested in this one. Personal interest aside, I agree that regardless of what models may show, the window for significant direct impacts in the US is not open that much. We’re still fairly far out and without much upper level recon data near the storm, but that’s where we are. I’d probably put the odds at a US hit, including an OBX scrape, at ~25% currently. Perfectly fair and agreed. I love the tropics, but TS level impact doesn't do much for me. 25% of some sort of direct impact on the US, regardless of intensity, seems about right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How does his post imply that the CMC settles it? The CMC has been the furthest west all along... not sure I see your point. I was joking with winter wolfs reply to the news a garbage model didn’t do anything with Fiona 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I was joking with winter wolfs reply to the news a garbage model didn’t do anything with Fiona Yea, that's fine...it just wasn't initially apparent to me that the model we were referring to was the CMC Only reason I was confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Tropical is my thing and all I need is something reasonably chaseable, so I’m interested in this one. Personal interest aside, I agree that regardless of what models may show, the window for significant direct impacts in the US is not open that much. We’re still fairly far out and without much upper level recon data near the storm, but that’s where we are. I’d probably put the odds of a US hit, including an OBX scrape, at ~25% currently. You shouldn't allow your self to be "gas-lit" into questioning why it is you engage, or need to justify your commitment to your passion. Unless your Jeffrey Dahmer ...LOL Really, when a poser drive-by pot shots a comment about how this doesn't deserve its coverage, in a tenor that's clearly dismissive ..or in a lot of ways ...condescendingly lofty, they are really being reflective about themselves. They likely have some sort of psycho-babble difficulty or issue in their own wiring where controlling their own disappointment escapes them. Yet, they find some sort of personal amelioration in lecturing others about a virtue they don't really have enough of for themselves - self control. Control that would have prevented their own disappointment in the first place. I call it disappointment, but in this context it's kind of a loaded definition at that. That may not be precisely the motivation but... it's in that area of the spectrum. We've all done that from time to time ... some more jocular, while others appear to be more 'instructively' gaslighting. If one has an innate passion for tropical weather phenomenon, than tropical phenomenon anywhere in reality is going to draw their attention - hey man... life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness... And like all human beings, ...they may then seek other's perspective for that essence of the shared experience. That's normal. The posters that chide that normalcy ... part of our own maturity, too, it's not so much that we don't respond- to us the real 'bore' is even reading their shade. If it is not "funny" or something very obviously jocular, we seldom get half way through the first sentence and we're already scrolling... Or should be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You shouldn't allow your self to be "gas-lit" into questioning why it is you engage, or need to justify your commitment to your passion. Unless your Jeffrey Dahmer ...LOL Really, when a poser drive-by pot shots a comment about how this doesn't deserve its coverage, in a tenor that's clearly dismissive ..or in a lot of ways ...condescendingly lofty, they are really being reflective about themselves. They likely have some sort of psycho-babble difficulty or issue in their own wiring where controlling their own disappointment escapes them. Yet, they find some sort of personal amelioration in lecturing others about a virtue they don't really have enough of for themselves - self control. Control that would have prevented their own disappointment in the first place. I call it disappointment, but in this context it's kind of a loaded definition at that. That may not be precisely the motivation but... it's in that area of the spectrum. We've all done that from time to time ... some more jocular, while others appear to be more 'instructively' gaslighting. If one has an innate passion for tropical weather phenomenon, than tropical phenomenon anywhere in reality is going to draw their attention - hey man... life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness... And like all human beings, ...they may then seek other's perspective for that essence of the shared experience. That's normal. The posters that chide that normalcy ... part of our own maturity, too, it's not so much that we don't respond- to us the real 'bore' is even reading their shade. If it is not "funny" or something very obviously jocular, we seldom get half way through the first sentence and we're already scrolling... Or should be. Right for the wrong reason...in all honestly, my "psycho-babble" motivation for doing this has nothing to do with disappointment because I never had hopes for this, honestly; but instead its a conflict between my apathy as it pertains to this particular system as a hobbyist, with my recognition that its probably just about blog-worthy and I don't care to exert the effort as a result of said apathy. But I did ultimately characterize his stance as "fair", so while perhaps my initial posture bordered on condescending, it ended in validation. On other note, I am willing to bet that those "gaslight" posts are consumed in their entirety at a far higher rate than your posts. JK-kinda... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Been watching the satellite loop for a few minutes. Obviously the LLC has a counterclockwise spin, but anyone else think that hot tower to its east has something of a clockwise spin presentation to it? Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 The normal error for TC position/movement between any day 5- and 7, has a greater sensitivity that normal for Fiona. The reason has to do re-ordering super synoptic across the N arc of the Pacific, and how that structures ( eventually...) the flow over N. America. The N. Pac is in a state of yawing because of complex/extended topic ...but whatever for now. In determining where Fiona will situated by day 5 ... that much may actually be more confident than normal. The features that normally contribute to forcing/steering area not really in a heightened state of variability, so odds are very much in favor of the fairly tightly constrained consensus for somewhere N of the Isle of Hispaniola by 72 hours. ...There is some wild card options for less(more) intensity due to two factors: One, shear in the near terms. You know there really does seem to be something to "survival trends" aft of a TC's present state, when assessing future. It's objectively shown that systems that survive shear, tend to survive more shear. Other systems can go poof the moment they get smacked around a bit. With that ultra sciency sounding rendition ... Fiona has not only been surviving, it's managed to climb some mph ratings - although I'm willing to hunch if anyone else is, that NHC isn't shy about doing that because it is nearing population and PR sort of requires the awareness... Two is whether or not Fiona interacts with the western or eastern end of Hispaniola. The Central Cordillera of western half of that land mass serrates to 6-8K feat, with some peaks nearing 10K. The contrasting ...the eastern ~ half of that landmass is planar, ranging from near sea-level to 600 feet. A weak Fiona obviously would benefit by NOT attempting to cross the western end of Hispaniola, then. A stronger/strengthening Fiona might fair better, but not much. Any TC attempting to cross that western aspect is going to disconnect itself above the waist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right for the wrong reason...in all honestly, my "psycho-babble" motivation for doing this has nothing to do with disappointment because I never had hopes for this, honestly; but instead its a conflict between my apathy as it pertains to this particular system as a hobbyist, with my recognition that its probably just about blog-worthy and I don't care to exert the effort as a result of said apathy. But I did ultimately characterize his stance as "fair", so while perhaps my initial posture bordered on condescending, it ended in validation. On other note, I am willing to bet that those "gaslight" posts are consumed in their entirety at a far higher rate than your posts. JK-kinda... What oh, I didn't know that conversation had you in tow... I was just responding to ... whomever that poster was for what the content. Whatever - Like I said in the next sentence, "That may not be precisely the motivation but... it's in that area of the spectrum" And it is, sorry - right for the right reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 I like what the NHC has. Mentions it could be a cane even near Hispaniola...and then reorganizes quickly after any interaction with the island. Another option is that it feels a tug NE with the trough off the SE...but then is missed and meanders back NW. That's the euro basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Like everyone else I’m so desperate for any weather related excitement that I hope this one comes together and does something..Doesn’t need to be 1938/1954 or even 1985 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I like what the NHC has. Mentions it could be a cane even near Hispaniola...and then reorganizes quickly after any interaction with the island. Another option is that it feels a tug NE with the trough off the SE...but then is missed and meanders back NW. That's the euro basically. I think any tugs away from the coast greatly reduces the odds of impact even if the trough is missed. There’s another one right after it, and it doesn’t cut off. We’d be in business if it did but those are reserved for April lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What oh, I didn't know that conversation had you in tow... I was just responding to ... whomever that poster was for what the content. Whatever - Like I said in the next sentence, "That may not be precisely the motivation but... it's in that area of the spectrum" And it is, sorry - right for the right reason. No...wrong reason. Again, its not out of disappointment, but its knowing I should blog about it when I don't want to. If presuming to tell others how they feel is not the epitome of condescending "psycho-babble", then I'm not sure what is. Irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No...wrong reason. Again, its not out of disappointment, but its knowing I should blog about it when I don't want to. If presuming to tell others how they feel is not the epitome of condescending "psycho-babble", then I'm not sure what is. Irony. ok, again - I didn't know you were in the motivation in that. The phenomenon I am talking about is right/correct - Whether that relates to you in that conversation's thread, I'll take your word for it - but I also don't give a shit. lol - wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Lots of violent verbiage today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 I knew that first comment would set things off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: ok, well - I didn't know you were in the motivation in that. The phenomenon I am talking about is right/correct - Whether that relates to you in that conversation's thread, I'll take your word for it - but I also don't give a shit. lol - wow I don't give a shit how others feel, I'll just go on to write 8 paragraphs about how they feel that no one will read. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 50 minutes ago, Hoth said: Been watching the satellite loop for a few minutes. Obviously the LLC has a counterclockwise spin, but anyone else think that hot tower to its east has something of a clockwise spin presentation to it? Weird. That convection is quasi-disassociated from Fiona's core ... so that might atone for that behavior. Convection on its own that collapses often takes on subtle rotation - I've seen that do that both cyclonically and anti-cyclonically. I think it's just momentum distribution at the time the collapse occurs ...If it subtly favors one or the other, than the collapsing/DVM will briefly exaggerate that motion by centrifugal acceleration/conservation of angular momentum. Think ice-skater drawing their extremities inward, and they speed up rotation? When the mass collapses, it goes inward so if there is a tendency of momentum in ether direction, that will exhibit briefly.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I knew that first comment would set things off Nah... I was talking to you, friend. Trying to offer some reassurance. You don't have to answer to that sort of antic - if you don't want to. But it's wasting your time. Ray is making it all about him, which I don't care to be involved in - When I said that to you, I had 0 awareness that he was involved in the comments you were making. This is all I am going to say on this moving forward. Just letting you know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 I think I see why the GFS takes off more than anything else....it looks like it manages to keep the drier air to the west further removed from the core of Fiona, after it gets IVOF the Bahamas early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 John, I was just trolling you towards the end...I get it, in all seriousness. NP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Perfectly fair and agreed. I love the tropics, but TS level impact doesn't do much for me. 25% of some sort of direct impact on the US, regardless of intensity, seems about right. I don't see any type of favorable blocking pattern and/or strong neutral/negative tilt trough coming in. The only chance of an impact is the Euro scenario where it gets left behind close to the east coast that ridging builds in enough to push it NW. Slim odds though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I don't see any type of favorable blocking pattern and/or strong neutral/negative tilt trough coming in. The only chance of an impact is the Euro scenario where it gets left behind close to the east coast that ridging builds in enough to push it NW. Slim odds though Yep. This is why I was telling people not to get wrapped up in watching how close it passes to the NE...unless you are interested in waves, then that is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 If it misses us I hope it misses by 2000 miles and not something like Eduardo from several years back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I see why the GFS takes off more than anything else....it looks like it manages to keep the drier air to the west further removed from the core of Fiona, after it gets IVOF the Bahamas early next week. Now-obs: ...I'm seeing anvil trajectories out ahead of Fiona beginning to move more perpendicular to the storm's west motion - that may be a negation of shear taking place. Meanwhile, there is convection beginning to re associate with eastern/inner core region just in the last hour and half. These may or may not be related - I suspect they are. These might be signals for a better structure ensuing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Now-obs: ...I'm seeing anvil trajectories out ahead of Fiona beginning to move more perpendicular to the storm's west motion - that may be a negation of shear taking place. Meanwhile, there is convection beginning to re associate with eastern/inner core region just in the last hour and half. These might be signals for a better structure ensuing... I'm just blogging right now and one of my slides is actually to illustrate that small window for some reorganization over the next 12-24 hours or so before it gets a bit more hostile again INVOF greater Antilles. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 I think it has until tomorrow to ramp up some, but it should struggle again as it bypasses PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 This modeled steering pattern ain’t it. Too many troughs. Ridges out of place. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Can see why the GFS still fishin'. Gets the storm pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Can see why the GFS still fishin'. Gets the storm pretty far north. Its a catch 22....if it entrains more dry air once n of the islands, it intensifies more slowly, and threatens the se as a more meager system...if it ingests less dry air, it goes to town and gives ginxy and pickles their wave orgy. This is why major impactor is exceedingly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Can see why the GFS still fishin'. Gets the storm pretty far north. And cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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