CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Yep. We toss early turns to north. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 UGH wave talk.....you know a storm blows when you start hearing that...its like when the focus settles on upslope or flooding with respect to a winter storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 She gonna go through shrederola, but without a good LLC probably doesn’t matter much. It has the chance to really strengthen after. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 8 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yep. We toss early turns to north. Latest runs say bye bye to Fiona Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 46 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Latest runs say bye bye to Fiona Gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs? Eps and cmc and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps and cmc and gfs Did someone spray you with mace? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did someone spray you with mace? Posted with 1 eye open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did someone spray you with mace? Antifa got him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 Maybe its me, but I just don't see this as being worthy of anyone's time.....I think it is, and has been pretty clear that the odds of a major US impact are pretty low. The main threat was when it looked like it may cause flooding in PR, but now even that is mitigated with the southern track. Its a boring year...I get it. But I guess more and more with age I would rather not allocate my time toward tracking a lost cause- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did someone spray you with mace? "Far"? I wouldn't say that....what a reach lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: "Far"? I wouldn't say that....what a reach lol Nothing else to track so why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 If this can still be intact when it gets past Hispaniola, it's going to intensify. I'm not sold on a quick boot like the GFS has at the moment. I would favor a recurve, but I think something hitting the US is not like a 5% or less chance either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If this can still be intact when it gets past Hispaniola, it's going to intensify. I'm not sold on a quick boot like the GFS has at the moment. I would favor a recurve, but I think something hitting the US is not like a 5% or less chance either. I've always felt like a goal post track was the most likely scenario....one of those deals where nothing happens, but Steve and Pickles will whack it to waves. Pickles will probably chase the waves. Waves=cirrus in my mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: "Far"? I wouldn't say that....what a reach lol They’re all trying to capture/garner views…so that’s how they keep Joe-public interested, and not have folks tune out. Every outlet does it unfortunately…they want the business. I agree as we get older/wiser, I too won’t waste time on a junk system that’s gonna be a fish storm/miss. Check in a couple times a day, and see if anything has changed, and then its sianara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Fish sticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: They’re all trying to capture/garner views…so that’s how they keep Joe-public interested, and not have folks tune out. Every outlet does it unfortunately…they want the business. I agree as we get older/wiser, I too won’t waste time on a junk system that’s gonna be a fish storm/miss. Check in a couple times a day, and see if anything has changed, and then its sianara. I reserve the right to change my mind through tomorrow, as I have always maintained that this weekend is when I definitively decide whether or not to board this bus. But one thing is certain, the window for a major US impact is exceedingly slim. It needs to thread a narrow path within an intensity-track continuum that will afford it ample opportunity to intensify significantly, late in the game enough to not cause it to veer seaward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Fish sticks That will change at 12z lol…but I won’t waste anytime on this either as Ray said, if the consensus shows it hitting the Gorton Fisherman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 What these folks like the tweeter above fail to tell you is that, while yes....a US LF, while unlikely, remains very possible.....it would more than likely be as a TS or POSSIBLY a very minimal hurricane if it were to track that far west. It would be one of these "rain-maker" deals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I reserve the right to change my mind through tomorrow, as I have always maintained that this weekend is when I definitively decide whether or not to board this bus. But one thing is certain, the window for a major US impact is exceedingly slim. It needs to thread a narrow path within an intensity-track continuum that will afford it ample opportunity to intensify significantly, late in the game enough to not cause it to veer seaward. 100% agree. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: That will change at 12z lol…but I won’t waste anytime on this either as Ray said, if the consensus shows it hitting the Gorton Fisherman. The CEM2, which is on a bee line towards the US, probably the weakest of all of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The CEM2, which is on a bee line towards the US, probably the weakest of all of the guidance. Yup…it’s looking likely its a non starter for east coast impact. Oh well…the boring streak looks to continue. Or….Can she surprise us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If this can still be intact when it gets past Hispaniola, it's going to intensify. I'm not sold on a quick boot like the GFS has at the moment. I would favor a recurve, but I think something hitting the US is not like a 5% or less chance either. Good post . Ya past Hispaniola if it can get a LLC going or maintain one and not go over Cuba you have the bath water of SE Bahamas . We pray As things currently look favorable early next week Is the steering going to be very weak and or could you see any west Atlantic ridding push this into Florida - potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup…it’s looking likely its a non starter for east coast impact. Oh well…the boring streak looks to continue. Or….Can she surprise us? Ya cmc settles it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya cmc settles it How does his post imply that the CMC settles it? The CMC has been the furthest west all along... not sure I see your point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya cmc settles it Lol…I didn’t mean I’m basing anything off that junk model, but just being realistic, that any chance this hits the east coast is very slim. Doesn’t mean it’s a zero chance, but it’s very low. But I hope I’m completely wrong. I mean I’d Love to have some excitement in the form of a tropical entity threaten the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol…I didn’t mean I’m basing anything off that junk model, but just being realistic, that any chance this hits the east coast is very slim. Doesn’t mean it’s a zero chance, but it’s very low. But I hope I’m completely wrong. I mean I’d Love to have some excitement in the form of a tropical entity threaten the area. I didn't even realize that CEM2 was the GEM....I guess that is why he thought that, if it is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Fish sticks Where on that TT site is the linkage to track guidance ? ...I've poked around several times - is that a paid thing? If not it seems to be elusively placed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Where on that TT site is the linkage to track guidance ? ...I've poked around several times - is that a paid thing? If not it seems to be elusively placed ah think I found it.. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Tropical is my thing and all I need is something reasonably chaseable, so I’m interested in this one. Personal interest aside, I agree that regardless of what models may show, the window for significant direct impacts in the US is not open that much. We’re still fairly far out and without much upper level recon data near the storm, but that’s where we are. I’d probably put the odds of a US hit, including an OBX scrape, at ~25% currently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now