Tracking the Tropics

[ROOSTA]

Not confirmed but reported on local TV station, gusts near LF in the 170 range. Water rescues everywhere.
Moving into feeder band right now. This is knocking power out... see you's all on the otherside.
New Smyrna Beach 74G in the last hour.   

[Ginx snewx]

58 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Link?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Cantore getting absolutely destroyed in PG

[Torch Tiger]

2.5 hours and counting of 100+mph gusts 

[ineedsnow]

thinking of booking a flight out of BDL to Myrtle beach for 6AM tomorrow most models are south of there but have been trending north..  would it be worth it?

[mreaves]

3 hours ago, BrianW said:

 

 

2 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Got an uncle with a place in Naples, wonder how it's faring? 

See what Stein says above

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, ROOSTA said:

Not confirmed but reported on local TV station, gusts near LF in the 170 range. Water rescues everywhere.
Moving into feeder band right now. This is knocking power out... see you's all on the otherside.
New Smyrna Beach 74G in the last hour.   

Good luck. Keep us updated if you can.

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

thinking of booking a flight out of BDL to Myrtle beach for 6AM tomorrow most models are south of there but have been trending north..  would it be worth it?

You’d need to head further south, I think, otherwise it’s a waste. It’ll probably degrade quickly if you’re not near the center.

It’s also still unclear how good the structure of Ian will be after it crosses. I think it’ll be a hurricane at the next landfall, but based on the current track it doesn’t look like there’s a lot of time to maximize potential.

If I were chasing, and lord knows I tried figuring it out, I’d probably position in North Charleston and be ready to go west or east. Much of Charleston will be underwater no matter what Ian does so I wouldn’t do that. 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Good luck. Keep us updated if you can.

You’d need to head further south, I think, otherwise it’s a waste. It’ll probably degrade quickly if you’re not near the center.

It’s also still unclear how good the structure of Ian will be after it crosses. I think it’ll be a hurricane at the next landfall, but based on the current track it doesn’t look like there’s a lot of time to maximize potential.

If I were chasing, and lord knows I tried figuring it out, I’d probably position in North Charleston and be ready to go west or east. Much of Charleston will be underwater no matter what Ian does so I wouldn’t do that. 

I was thinking Charleston but its double the price.. also wondering with Ian being east already if models will adjust north?

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I was thinking Charleston but its double the price.. also wondering with Ian being east already if models will adjust north?

Not much of a window IMO for it to adjust that much east. You also have to consider whether you’d be wasting money if you travel and this washes out as a strong TS with an ill defined center. 

Even if it comes in as a 75kt cane you won’t likely be close enough to see those gusts because that’s a flood/surge zone near Charleston. If it were a high 2 or 3 it’d be more worth it I think, but until I see a more definitive move toward that potential it’s a very low likelihood.  

[ineedsnow]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Not much of a window IMO for it to adjust that much east. You also have to consider whether you’d be wasting money if you travel and this washes out as a strong TS with an ill defined center. 

Even if it comes in as a 75kt cane you won’t likely be close enough to see those gusts because that’s a flood/surge zone near Charleston. If it were a high 2 or 3 it’d be more worth it I think, but until I see a more definitive move toward that potential it’s a very low likelihood.  

Probably wait to see what the 0z models do tonight.. thanks for your input!

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Probably wait to see what the 0z models do tonight.. thanks for your input!

Yeah, I’d definitely wait to see if it’s even worth it. 

While it sucks to miss a storm, it also sucks to chase an underperformer. I know from experience lol.

[Hoth]

Mercifully, it looks like my relatives in Sarasota dodged a bullet. Strong tropical storm conditions there all day, but no surge or really damaging wind. What a relief!

[HoarfrostHubb]

From Mike Seidel

 

[Hoth]

17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

From Mike Seidel

 

Man, look at the wind shear off the tops of those waves. Insane.

[kdxken]

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Man, look at the wind shear off the tops of those waves. Insane.

That's freaking awesome. Usual disclaimer, I feel for the folks getting hammered.

[MarkO]

On 9/26/2022 at 9:00 PM, kdxken said:

Friend of mine prepping in Fort Myers. There could be boats crashing through the window but she ain't moving if they're still making martinis.

 

I hope she moved.

[Ginx snewx]

 Seems lots of peeps calling 911 for water rescues, big story developing. 

[kdxken]

32 minutes ago, MarkO said:

I hope she moved.

Got out just in time.

[Whineminster]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

From Mike Seidel

 

Rivals @CoastalWx October noreaster last year.

IMO noreasters don't get enough respect because we're not 5' above sea level for miles. 

 

[CoastalWx]

That is nuts 

[Ginx snewx]

She gone

[WxWatcher007]

On 9/19/2022 at 8:39 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s coming.

East money. Obviously the last minute explosion was wild but the environment was primed for a big dog. You could see it from a mile away.

Still thinking October produces a couple good storms too if we can get some seeds in the Caribbean. 

[MJOatleast7]

East money. Obviously the last minute explosion was wild but the environment was primed for a big dog. You could see it from a mile away.
Still thinking October produces a couple good storms too if we can get some seeds in the Caribbean. 

Hurricane hunter report seemed to coincide with the RI that happened just before landfall. The observer said it was more lightning than he’d ever seen in his career as a hurricane hunter.

Sounds like the plane passed near or through a hot tower accompanying the RI. Would love to see the data from that pass.


.

[JC-CT]

On 9/26/2022 at 9:00 PM, kdxken said:

Friend of mine prepping in Fort Myers. There could be boats crashing through the window but she ain't moving if they're still making martinis.

 

Why is Amy Klobuchar in Fort Myers? Cool that your friends with the Klobs though.

[CoastalWx]

6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

She gone

Confirmed?

[Damage In Tolland]

Daylight is going to reveal unfathomable devastation 

[Modfan2]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Daylight is going to reveal unfathomable devastation 

We are still getting decent TS gust here in Stuart after 6+ inches of rain and a few Tornado warnings Tuesday night into Wednesday; nothing compared to SW FL. 

[Modfan2]

Florida Power and Light outages; 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

A lot of the models want to recharge Ian over the Atlantic and bring it into Hilton Head area. 

[Damage In Tolland]

It will be a strong cat 1 at LF. Winds 90-95mph