STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 11:15 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Glad to see NHC finally realized it wasn’t going to go from beast cat 4 to a 1 in 12 hours prior to LF lol. That was ridiculous. Should be strong cat 3 into Sanibel Island. Expand The intensity at landfall was relative to how far north into the sheer (300mb jet streak it got ) if this was landfalling North of Tampa is would slow big time and get hit hard by shear and weaken alot The further SE landfall on west coast the stronger it should be . this may be confusing to you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 2:42 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: The intensity at landfall was relative to how far north into the sheer (300mb jet streak it got ) if this was landfalling North of Tampa is would slow big time and get hit hard by shear and weaken alot The further SE landfall on west coast the stronger it should be . this may be confusing to you Expand Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 I just saw you covered that as I was reading last couple pages I wonder if this can have some Charley like ticks . I’m not trying to act like I know anything or that the set up favors them but just because I’m not sure how prepped people are for the arrival of a potential cat 4 in Ft. Myers because that would take just a little more of a turn and be on them by morning 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 2:46 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: I just saw you covered that as I was reading last couple pages I wonder if this can have some Charley like ticks . I’m not trying to act like I know anything or that the set up favors them but just because I’m not sure how prepped people are for the arrival of a potential cat 4 in Ft. Myers because that would take just a little more of a turn and be on them by morning Expand Same page...my original thought on Friday was SW FL, and I may have overcorrected a bit yesterday to just N of TB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 While we wait for our tropical number to be called, today is the anniversary of Gloria. The last CT hurricane strike predates me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 2:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Same page...my original thought on Friday was SW FL, and I may have overcorrected a bit yesterday to just N of TB. Expand I think this will end up between Venice and Sarasota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 2:53 PM, WxWatcher007 said: While we wait for our tropical number to be called, today is the anniversary of Gloria. The last CT hurricane strike predates me. Expand I vaguely remember that....numerous trees down in Wilmington. I home in my aunt's neighborhood that a tree go right through the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Man, if models keep trending Ian south it will be heading into the Everglades by the 0z runs. If this comes in under Naples it is pretty much a bullet dodge for all of the populated areas of the W Coast. Rain could obviously still be an issue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 6:09 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Man, if models keep trending Ian south it will be heading into the Everglades by the 0z runs. If this comes in under Naples it is pretty much a bullet dodge for all of the populated areas of the W Coast. Rain could obviously still be an issue. Expand then it would just go over the swampy everglades with not much weakening and crush Miami....pick your poison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 6:44 PM, Brian5671 said: then it would just go over the swampy everglades with not much weakening and crush Miami....pick your poison Expand LOL, my coworker evacuated Anna Marie island yesterday to Miami. That would be...something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 6:09 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Man, if models keep trending Ian south it will be heading into the Everglades by the 0z runs. If this comes in under Naples it is pretty much a bullet dodge for all of the populated areas of the W Coast. Rain could obviously still be an issue. Expand Between Tampa and Clearwater Tampa Bay will siech in the SSW portion then sway back as the storm gets to its Latitude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Always in awe when I see this. Time sensitive-too big for me to post image which is a pita but oh well....sattelite loops so impressive. I think Tampa Bay gets somewhat spared as lf appears further south now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 9:21 PM, weathafella said: Always in awe when I see this. Time sensitive-too big for me to post image which is a pita but oh well....sattelite loops so impressive. I think Tampa Bay gets somewhat spared as lf appears further south now... Expand Swaying back N at 18 Z. Weebles wobble but they don't fall down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Final call Northport Florida 130 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Too bad remnants aren’t forecasted to make it here. Would have probably been the final mail in the coffin on the drought in Southern New England. Lots of areas still in moderate on Drought Monitor despite all the rain we have gotten this past month… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 9:37 PM, Ginx snewx said: Final call Northport Florida 130 mph Expand I agree with you that it may wobble a little N again. Northport LF is bad news for Fort Meyers and not great for Sarasota. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Even if the winds are not that bad, 15"+ of rain for Orlando, would probably be somewhat problematic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Looks like a Cat 4 at LF. I’d love to be in Sarasota where my grandparents lived all of my cihildhood and teen years into 20’s . Ground zero 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 10:11 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: I agree with you that it may wobble a little N again. Northport LF is bad news for Fort Meyers and not great for Sarasota. Expand My coworker’s parents are in Fort Myers and did not evacuate. I don’t understand that if you have the means. They are pretty close to the water 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 10:35 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: My coworker’s parents are in Fort Myers and did not evacuate. I don’t understand that if you have the means. They are pretty close to the water Expand Hopefully they’ll be ok. Sounds like a risky choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 10:41 PM, weathafella said: Hopefully they’ll be ok. Sounds like a risky choice. Expand She has tried to talk them into leaving. They have metal surge shutters or something similar but I fear for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 No propane, no gasoline, water flying off the shelves. Highways jammed and then you have the yahoo's who are oblivious and stay even along the coast, D'OH I fear the power will be gone for days. Irma was 6 days prompting a generator purchase. This is going to be stronger, longer. I'm glad the latest are going S. A few runs back tracking right overhead. AFD has 100+ gusts, isolated 24"+ in wordage with a lot of extremes to boot. Venice to Daytona Beach. In at 140 out at 40 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 10:46 PM, ROOSTA said: No propane, no gasoline, water flying off the shelves. Highways jammed and then you have the yahoo's who are oblivious and stay even along the coast, D'OH I fear the power will be gone for days. Irma was 6 days prompting a generator purchase. This is going to be stronger, longer. I'm glad the latest are going S. A few runs back tracking right overhead. AFD has 100+ gusts, isolated 24"+ in wordage with a lot of extremes to boot. Venice to Daytona Beach. In at 140 out at 40 Expand Wishing you the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 10:46 PM, ROOSTA said: No propane, no gasoline, water flying off the shelves. Highways jammed and then you have the yahoo's who are oblivious and stay even along the coast, D'OH I fear the power will be gone for days. Irma was 6 days prompting a generator purchase. This is going to be stronger, longer. I'm glad the latest are going S. A few runs back tracking right overhead. AFD has 100+ gusts, isolated 24"+ in wordage with a lot of extremes to boot. Venice to Daytona Beach. In at 140 out at 40 Expand At least you’re not in Tolland 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 11:56 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here are my Final thoughts...for whatever that is worth haha https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-to-have-devastating.html Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 My brother lives in Lakeland so mad I couldn't get the time off of work to be with him.. maybe get lucky and the ICON will work out with a major into the Carolinas.. would have time to make it there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 My ex’s parents had a place in Port Charlotte…last I knew. They could be in a rough spot as they are just east of Rotonda and have boat access to Charlotte Harbor from their home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 18Z UKMET finally came north a bit and is now close to 18Z GFS with a landfall near Rontonda. Fort Myers/Charlotte Harbor look like they could be among the worst spots for surge. People have to realize the track may looks a bit like Charley, but Ian is a much bigger surge threat with the larger circulation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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