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Tracking the Tropics


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  On 9/25/2022 at 2:27 PM, weatherwiz said:

Seems like there will be a substantial amount of shear with the strong trough just off to the north. I would think the two biggest concerns are going to be storm surge and maybe rainfall/flooding. Looks like the system could slow down quite a bit too. Wouldn't be surprised to see a small area of 15-20'' of rain.

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Yea, this is why I was saying the further west it goes, the weaker the LF. N gulf coast will primarily bring hydro issues.

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  On 9/25/2022 at 7:22 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Except the tens of fake storms it generates. I mean we haven't had a tropical system but the GFS has modeled at least 4

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I don’t care about day 10 storms. It’s inside day 5. If this goes to Tampa I’ll b glad to be knighted by the euro. 
 

I’m not forecasting so happily observing from the outside. 

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I'm going to need a boat.
From the onset of this tropical system as a threat since what a week, 10 days ago I've really tried to avoid the run-to-run model craze.
It's crunch time, it's coming, I'm hooked.
It was the GFS that in one run had 40-50" of TOTAL-P, that run also featured a direct hit. Whew!
A weakening system with landfall near the Big Bend on the present trajectory is still a severe hit for my location.
Ian appears to be getting its act together and because of that the trend to track into the Pan Handle are diminishing.
Time to stock-up. 

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  On 9/25/2022 at 7:46 PM, ROOSTA said:

I'm going to need a boat.
From the onset of this tropical system as a threat since what a week, 10 days ago I've really tried to avoid the run-to-run model craze.
It's crunch time, it's coming, I'm hooked.
It was the GFS that in one run had 40-50" of TOTAL-P, that run also featured a direct hit. Whew!
A weakening system with landfall near the Big Bend on the present trajectory is still a severe hit for my location.
Ian appears to be getting its act together and because of that the trend to track into the Pan Handle are diminishing.
Time to stock-up. 

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Where are you in Florida 

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  On 9/25/2022 at 9:07 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Where are you in Florida 

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Hey Steve,
Altoona
LAT 28.97
LON 81.63
ASL 108FT.
Wide-open area so there will not be flying projectiles.
I'm going to have to stock-up on water and non-perishables. The stores should open back-up quickly. It's the electric I'm really worried about. Other concerns to lesser degrees. Big Old Southern Oaks surround the house, I mean huge they must be over 200yrs. old. No window protection.
Need a battery back-up for at least 1 computer to run observations and keep the camera running. 

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  On 9/25/2022 at 10:02 PM, ROOSTA said:

Hey Steve,
Altoona
LAT 28.97
LON 81.63
ASL 108FT.
Wide-open area so there will not be flying projectiles.
I'm going to have to stock-up on water and non-perishables. The stores should open back-up quickly. It's the electric I'm really worried about. Other concerns to lesser degrees. Big Old Southern Oaks surround the house, I mean huge they must be over 200yrs. old. No window protection.
Need a battery back-up for at least 1 computer to run observations and keep the camera running. 

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Family in Holiday and Port Richey

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