WinterWolf Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 1:07 PM, dryslot said: Looks like the weekend is going to be quite gusty up here being in the gradient between Fiona and the HP to the west, Gust could reach 50mph+ for the elevations. Expand Double that and then some probably for Cape Breton, N.S. They gonna get rolled I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 21, 2022 Author Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 1:11 PM, MJO812 said: Expand The guidance for this one reminds me of Ivan. hurricane ivan - Google Search 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 1:11 PM, MJO812 said: Expand Damage ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Up here that would be a nice cold, raw rain with a NE wind at 5mph. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 1:11 PM, MJO812 said: Expand Looks like we get some rain from that perhaps? 982mb in West Virginia…with a big swath of rain, we take. Edit: The last frame that Kevin posted has it strengthening to 978mb in PA..interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 1:13 PM, WinterWolf said: Looks like we get some rain from that perhaps? 982mb in West Virginia…with a big swath of rain, we take. Expand We need it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 The benchmark hurricane. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 1:10 PM, WinterWolf said: Double that and then some probably for Cape Breton, N.S. They gonna get rolled I think. Expand Obviously, But were going to be a few hundred miles from the center here and typically would see nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 186 mph gust at Blue Hill …lord in heaven! Truly one for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 1:39 PM, dryslot said: Obviously, But were going to be a few hundred miles from the center here and typically would see nothing. Expand Very impressive for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 1:32 PM, WxWatcher007 said: The benchmark hurricane. Expand None of us alive today will experience anything like that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 I am hacking the holy hell out of my work calendar for basically the next two weeks. We went from 0 to 100 in the snap of a finger in the basin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 1:47 PM, Whineminster said: None of us alive today will experience anything like that Expand I'm not 100% convinced of that. It was 80+ years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 I never thought in ‘85 it would be 35+ years before I’d experience anything like that again. And that was only a strong cat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 2:15 PM, SouthCoastMA said: I'm not 100% convinced of that. It was 80+ years ago Expand Agreed…It can happen anytime. Very low probability obviously, but it can and does happen. Just a matter of when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 2:19 PM, Cyclone-68 said: I never thought in ‘85 it would be 35+ years before I’d experience anything like that again. And that was only a strong cat 1 Expand This is true too. But it only takes one. We never know when that special system happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 For some reason I always think that happened earlier in September... no idea why that is stuck in my head. And the odds of getting exactly that track and strength are pretty low, but wouldn't take a big storm to do similar damage (minus the deaths) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 1:11 PM, MJO812 said: Expand Boring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 2:15 PM, SouthCoastMA said: I'm not 100% convinced of that. It was 80+ years ago Expand Last similar one before 38 was the colonial hurricane. These things only happen once every few hundred years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 3:39 PM, Whineminster said: Last similar one before 38 was the colonial hurricane. These things only happen once every few hundred years. Expand Mother Nature: "oh would you look at that! It's only been 84 years, better cancel what I had in store for SNE. Need to wait another hundred years. Drat." 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 3:39 PM, Whineminster said: Last similar one before 38 was the colonial hurricane. These things only happen once every few hundred years. Expand 1815 was close. so its a once every 100-150 year type storm based on the small 400 year sample size. Carol in 1954 was pretty bad too (Cat 3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 3:44 PM, SouthCoastMA said: 1815 was close. so its a once every 100-150 year type storm based on the small 400 year sample size. Carol in 1954 was pretty bad too (Cat 3). Expand Even worse than ‘38 for areas around Boston I believe I read before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 3:44 PM, SouthCoastMA said: 1815 was close. so its a once every 100-150 year type storm based on the small 400 year sample size. Carol in 1954 was pretty bad too (Cat 3). Expand Need to check in with ginxy and the ancient sediment cores to find the return rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 4:07 PM, dendrite said: Need to check in with ginxy and the ancient sediment cores to find the return rate. Expand Looks like they did the work for me. https://today.tamu.edu/2015/02/23/monster-hurricanes-have-hit-new-england-for-2000-years/ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 4:08 PM, dendrite said: Looks like they did the work for me. https://today.tamu.edu/2015/02/23/monster-hurricanes-have-hit-new-england-for-2000-years/ Expand I was too high From a coastal risk perspective, U.S. emergency officials should consider a plan involving a major hurricane – at Category 3 or higher intensity – every 30 to 40 years instead of every 100 or 200 years as currently believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 I mean I'd take those return rates with a grain of salt since we're relying just on cores, but with a warming climate maybe we get above that threshold which allows a higher frequency of majors getting up to our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 On 9/21/2022 at 4:21 PM, dendrite said: I mean I'd take those return rates with a grain of salt since we're relying just on cores, but with a warming climate maybe we get above that threshold which allows a higher frequency of majors getting up to our latitude. Expand But flow is faster during a warming climate, so it would push them out to sea more. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Speaking of intense hurricanes, Fiona looks like it is going to be quite the blow to the Maritimes. I don't know accurate the GFS is with hurricane intensity so far north but 929mb around landfall is very impressive. Lucky for us that hook was not further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Looks like quite the unprecedented event for those folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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