Tracking the Tropics

[Whineminster]

28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

12z Euro

Cape Breton road trip?

[WxWatcher007]

34 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Cape Breton road trip?

My calendar is cleared…

[Go Kart Mozart]

38 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Cape Breton road trip?

Do you think the Les Suetes might blow just a bit?  And then the Wreckhouses of Newfoundland.

[butterfish55]

My in laws on Cape Breton (Lake Ainslie) are prepping.  13 hour drive from Raynham

[Whineminster]

Just now, butterfish55 said:

My in laws on Cape Breton (Lake Ainslie) are prepping.  13 hour drive from Raynham

I'll grab the key and warm up the truck, you pack up the slim Jims and mountain dew.

 

7 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Do you think the Les Suetes might blow just a bit?  And then the Wreckhouses of Newfoundland.

I've always wanted to check that place out. Such a badass name and it blows vehicles right over. 

[ineedsnow]

37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My calendar is cleared…

I'm holding out hope for 98L.. if it ends up being big and hits on the Gulf or east coasts I'm going.. sick of the boring weather and need some excitement 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm holding out hope for 98L.. if it ends up being big and hits on the Gulf or east coasts I'm going.. sick of the boring weather and need some excitement 

I considered flying to Bermuda Thursday 

[FXWX]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Unfortunately, do you want to know what the real travesty is? This is probably the more profitable avenue for him at this point, since he had established a reputation as a prominent contributor in the field, he has a platform and can use the sensationalism as a vehicle for a tremendous volume of "click", which generates massive income.

If you have ever read the book on the Red Sox "Feeding the Monster", this is the equivalent of that within the meteorological industry.

Absolutely no argument from me!  Not looking to get into all the well known specifics, but it is flourishing in many industries; public and private.  It is all about maintaining a revenue stream regardless of truth or facts... 

[bristolri_wx]

Obviously taken with a grain of salt verbatim, but the HMON, HWRF, and GFS 12z runs on Fiona all have it sub 930 during it's extra-tropical transition.  HWRF has it 916Mb at HR 84.  Most likely not happening, but there is model consensus of this kind of "blowing up" right before it hits the maritimes as it starts its extra-tropical transition.  It's in the 940's though most of it's journey through the North Atlantic...

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

I'll grab the key and warm up the truck, you pack up the slim Jims and mountain dew.

 

I've always wanted to check that place out. Such a badass name and it blows vehicles right over. 

Oh Canada  

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1841452099596/

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said:

Obviously taken with a grain of salt verbatim, but the HMON, HWRF, and GFS 12z runs on Fiona all have it sub 930 during it's extra-tropical transition.  HWRF has it 916Mb at HR 84.  Most likely not happening, but there is model consensus of this kind of "blowing up" right before it hits the maritimes as it starts its extra-tropical transition.  It's in the 940's though most of it's journey through the North Atlantic...

Its the models trying to convey a message, which is the extratropical jolt of energy right before this interacts with the Maritimes. Folks need to be careful not to become too immersed in the quantitative trees or risk losing sight of the qualitative forest, which is the notion that this is not going to be weakening on approach due to said transition.

Regardless of whether its 929mb or 940mb at LF, its pretty immaterial because its going to be hell.

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its the models trying to convey a message, which is the extratropical jolt of energy right before this interacts with the Maritimes. Folks need to be careful not to become too immersed in the quantitative trees or risk losing sight of the qualitative forest, which is the notion that this is not going to be weakening on approach due to said transition.

Regardless of whether its 929mb or 940mb at LF, its pretty immaterial because its going to be hell.

Yes sir …big BIG storm FOR THEM.  Gonna be super serious but exciting for that area.  

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes sir …big BIG storm FOR THEM.  Gonna be super serious but exciting for that area.  

Is it effed up that I'm jealous? I mean, I know a similar hit down here would probably put me in the dark for three weeks and require filing insurance claims and a whole lot of other headaches, but goddam I still want this beast.

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Is it effed up that I'm jealous? I mean, I know a similar hit down here would probably put me in the dark for three weeks and require filing insurance claims and a whole lot of other headaches, but goddam I still want this beast.

Exactly.

[Torch Tiger]

Cape Breton gone

[Modfan2]

47 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Is it effed up that I'm jealous? I mean, I know a similar hit down here would probably put me in the dark for three weeks and require filing insurance claims and a whole lot of other headaches, but goddam I still want this beast.

I spent 2 1/2 weeks in the FL Pan Handle for Michael and was enough for me to see. 

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I spent 2 1/2 weeks in the FL Pan Handle for Michael and was enough for me to see. 

That’s rough..you’re point is understood and well taken.  But for us weather nuts the excitement behind such a phenomenon is always incredibly alluring for folks like us. 

[powderfreak]

12 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Some action in the gulf, then turn hybrid and run into a unseasonably cold airmass so I can stay at a Airbnb in W Nowhere ville in NNE at 2k

October 2005 style.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, powderfreak said:

October 2005 style.

Don’t recall that one . I’ll take October thru November get a monster hybrid and then cut it off In a spot for NVT nw flow 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Don’t recall that one . I’ll take October thru November get a monster hybrid and then cut it off In a spot for NVT nw flow 

Hurricane Wilma pumped moisture into a strong upper level trough and dropped 12-24” across the Greens.

October 2005 was a beast for snowfall and precip.  This was like the 3rd snowstorm for the mountains.  I skied Killington on opening day, with like 50 trails open on natural snow.  Dense settled snow depths of 20-30” were present in late October at relatively low elevation.

[powderfreak]

Sorry to hijack the Tropical thread with snow stuff.  I recognize it.  That's step one to realizing you have a problem.

This is the Mount Washington Avalanche Center advisory for 10/26/2005.  It was mid-winter in late October 2005 for the mountains.

72" of snowfall on the month and 26" of water.  Good grief.

Hurricane Wilma injecting a trough with moisture... nor'easter crushes the mountains.

9:21 a.m., Wednesday, October 26, 2005

3 weeks ago I never would of thought our first 5 scale Advisory would 
start the season with such a bang. However, 27.5-inch (70cm)snowstorms 
with high winds can change conditions pretty quickly in the topography of 
the Presidentials. The summit just broke some significant records over the 
past 24 hours. First they have broken the snowiest October on record with 
72.2" (183cm) and even more impressive then that they surpassed their 
wettest month ever with 26.79" (68cm)of water. This beat the great 
Feburuay of 1969, a winter of legend. I have never seen October storms 
make such an impact on the mountain. I always look forward to snow, but it 
could be a very long season. Maybe we'll break our record of 200 
advisories out in one season. REMEMBER STRANGE ATYPICAL WEATHER MAKES 
STRANGE ATYPICAL AVALANCHES!
Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines have HIGH avalanche danger. Natural and 
human triggered avalanches are likely on a variety of aspects and angles. 
Unstable slabs are likely and travel in avalanche terrain is not 
recommended. As is typical during early season the variability of surface 
conditions and stability is great. Undoubtedly new snowfields have grown 
but are yet unseen due to whiteout conditions. So today's HIGH posting 
will have instabilities true to the definition. But these conditions 
aren't as widespread as a mid-winterstorm of 27.5 inches (70cm) when all 
snowfields are already established. There are numerous locations such as 
the top of Hillman's Highway that have unstable conditions, but have very 
limited paths established so avalanche activity will have short runs. 
Other areas like Left gully are just the opposite where full snow run-outs 
are already established. This means avalanches may run their full "mid-
winter" distances. While in 5 scale we will issue a new Advisory daily while a 
General Advisory will be updated as needed. So check back daily.

The 27.5 inches (70cm) of new snow on the summit fell over the past 30 
hours and came in with a high moisture content melting down to 4.43 inches 
(11.25cm). This creates a high density average of 16% snow. As this slow 
moving Nor'easter moves up into the Maritimes today wrap around moisture 
will continue the winter storm warning for the mountains. Snow is expected 
to continue and turn upslope later and become more sporadic. Several more 
inches should be expected. Eventually later today winds will shift from 
the current NNE to the NW. When the shift begins it should proceed fairly 
rapidly as the nearby Low moves off to the NE. The GFS model has been 
fairly true and predicts this shift to occur early this afternoon around 
1pm. The wind velocity which subsided overnight and have begun to pick up 
again. They are anticipated to be pushing 75mph (120kph) late in the day 
and should make things very interesting.

[CoastalWx]

I remember that event. It was incredible up north. That month was extremely wet down here. In fact we had significant flooding and parts of Taunton were evacuated from potential dam failure. 
 

I also had almost 2” prior to Halloween that month.

[Hoth]

58 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I spent 2 1/2 weeks in the FL Pan Handle for Michael and was enough for me to see. 

Yeah, that is extraordinary. Don't want that. But we don't get cat 5s up here either.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah, that is extraordinary. Don't want that. But we don't get cat 5s up here either.

Ya definitely no 5’s up here…we can’t even get a bonafide Cat 1 Hurricane.   

[Hazey]

Strongly worded from EC’s hurricane director.


.

[Hoth]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya definitely no 5’s up here…we can’t even get a bonafide Cat 1 Hurricane.   

Yeah, we're in whatever the hurricane equivalent of Stein is. "Bob Hoped"?

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah, we're in whatever the hurricane equivalent of Stein is. "Bob Hoped"?

Lmao…desert storm? Although Stein is gone here now. But I hear ya Hoth.  

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Sorry to hijack the Tropical thread with snow stuff.  I recognize it.  That's step one to realizing you have a problem.

This is the Mount Washington Avalanche Center advisory for 10/26/2005.  It was mid-winter in late October 2005 for the mountains.

72" of snowfall on the month and 26" of water.  Good grief.

Hurricane Wilma injecting a trough with moisture... nor'easter crushes the mountains.

9:21 a.m., Wednesday, October 26, 2005

3 weeks ago I never would of thought our first 5 scale Advisory would 
start the season with such a bang. However, 27.5-inch (70cm)snowstorms 
with high winds can change conditions pretty quickly in the topography of 
the Presidentials. The summit just broke some significant records over the 
past 24 hours. First they have broken the snowiest October on record with 
72.2" (183cm) and even more impressive then that they surpassed their 
wettest month ever with 26.79" (68cm)of water. This beat the great 
Feburuay of 1969, a winter of legend. I have never seen October storms 
make such an impact on the mountain. I always look forward to snow, but it 
could be a very long season. Maybe we'll break our record of 200 
advisories out in one season. REMEMBER STRANGE ATYPICAL WEATHER MAKES 
STRANGE ATYPICAL AVALANCHES!
Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines have HIGH avalanche danger. Natural and 
human triggered avalanches are likely on a variety of aspects and angles. 
Unstable slabs are likely and travel in avalanche terrain is not 
recommended. As is typical during early season the variability of surface 
conditions and stability is great. Undoubtedly new snowfields have grown 
but are yet unseen due to whiteout conditions. So today's HIGH posting 
will have instabilities true to the definition. But these conditions 
aren't as widespread as a mid-winterstorm of 27.5 inches (70cm) when all 
snowfields are already established. There are numerous locations such as 
the top of Hillman's Highway that have unstable conditions, but have very 
limited paths established so avalanche activity will have short runs. 
Other areas like Left gully are just the opposite where full snow run-outs 
are already established. This means avalanches may run their full "mid-
winter" distances. While in 5 scale we will issue a new Advisory daily while a 
General Advisory will be updated as needed. So check back daily.

The 27.5 inches (70cm) of new snow on the summit fell over the past 30 
hours and came in with a high moisture content melting down to 4.43 inches 
(11.25cm). This creates a high density average of 16% snow. As this slow 
moving Nor'easter moves up into the Maritimes today wrap around moisture 
will continue the winter storm warning for the mountains. Snow is expected 
to continue and turn upslope later and become more sporadic. Several more 
inches should be expected. Eventually later today winds will shift from 
the current NNE to the NW. When the shift begins it should proceed fairly 
rapidly as the nearby Low moves off to the NE. The GFS model has been 
fairly true and predicts this shift to occur early this afternoon around 
1pm. The wind velocity which subsided overnight and have begun to pick up 
again. They are anticipated to be pushing 75mph (120kph) late in the day 
and should make things very interesting.

Not hijacking at all....its relevant, as it relates to the tropics.

[dryslot]

Looks like the weekend is going to be quite gusty up here being in the gradient between Fiona and the HP to the west, Gust could reach 50mph+ for the elevations.