Tracking the Tropics

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Here?  SNE? What you thinking? 

Gulf....my only concern is that it could be one of those lame, low riders that nails central America or the Yucatan. Looks unlikely, but long way out...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Don't worry some storm will form and miss by 1000 miles but he will use it to say "see my forecast had merit"....he is far more predictable than any hurricane.

Its a shame what he has become with the rise of the internet.....he was at the top of the industry 20 years ago.

[dendrite]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You wonder what will be left?

It's gone this time.

[klw]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Tropical violence for Tampa on GFS.

Hurricane Giselle?

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am eager to watch Fiona unfold in the Maritimes. I usually don't care about systems outside of the continental US, but something about a LI express redux, though displaced east, intrigues me....will be nice to sit back and watch and not have to worry about the blog, too. Its rare that a system that captures my interest doesn't necessitate blogs, so that will be cool.

I'll be busy next week, though.....gonna fire out a quick winter update today, then onto the tropics all of next week.

I’ve been closely tracking it for a few days now. It’s pretty incredible to see the EPS members throwing out these solutions. We’ll see if it verifies. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, klw said:

Hurricane Giselle?

Apparently disjointed from the low level circulation that remains in TB.

[MJO812]

[Sn0waddict]

Imagine if that went through the CT river valley instead..sheesh.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Imagine if that went through the CT river valley instead..sheesh.

One of these storms will

[MJO812]

[Cyclone-68]

Holt crap this will be getting international headlines pretty soon one would think

[Cyclone-68]

For the record I’d love a tropical system/hurricane for here but not an 928mb gorilla 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Imagine if that went through the CT river valley instead..sheesh.

It would be very bad, but not quite as bad as NF is going to get it on these runs because its having extratropical energy phase into it with latitude.

[WinterWolf]

I don’t believe for a second that it will be in the 920’s wherever it hits in Atlantic Canada.  Those runs are folly.  However, If that ever did verify like that, they’d be knocked back into the age of the Vikings for god sakes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t believe for a second that it will be in the 920’s wherever it hits in Atlantic Canada.  Those runs are folly.  However, If that ever did verify like that, they’d be knocked back into the age of the Vikings for god sakes. 

It maybe like 10-15mb higher than that, but for the most part, the insane intensity is relatively accurate with all of that extra tropical juice from the front phasing in. Remember, this isn't a purely tropical entity at that latitude....look at the front being absorbed into the circulation.

[40/70 Benchmark]

929mb at the latitude of S NH 105hrs out on the EURO.

Think about that-

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It maybe like 10-15mb higher than that, but for the most part, the insane intensity is relatively accurate with all of that extra tropical juice from the front phasing in. Remember, this isn't a purely tropical entity at that latitude....look at the front being absorbed into the circulation.

I feel ya brother…points well taken. But no way 920’s imo. Even if you add 10mb on a mid 930’s system is a wrecking machine for the ages up that way. I guess we’ll see?  

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

929mb at the latitude of S NH 105hrs out on the EURO.

Think about that-

Super impressive for sure. 

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t believe for a second that it will be in the 920’s wherever it hits in Atlantic Canada.  Those runs are folly.  However, If that ever did verify like that, they’d be knocked back into the age of the Vikings for god sakes. 

920s would be hard, but 940s/950s certainly look doable, especially if Fiona takes off further south and is slower to weaken. Like Ray said, the transition blows this up. The angle of approach probably maximizes potential too.

[Hazey]

SST's are above average even up this latitude. If there is ever a chance at breaking the Atlantic Canada all time low pressure, this is it.  

[FXWX]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a shame what he has become with the rise of the internet.....he was at the top of the industry 20 years ago.

Agree 100%...  He just moves on from one failed hype to the next... very predictable scenario...  every year there is at least 1, if not multiple mentions of Hazel, the 38 storm and other historic events.  Compared to a decade or 2 ago, his credibility is shot...

[tunafish]

1 minute ago, Hazey said:

SST's are above average even up this latitude. If there is ever a chance at breaking the Atlantic Canada all time low pressure, this is it.  

Is Halifax/NS as woefully unprepared for a storm like this as New England is?

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

920s would be hard, but 940s/950s certainly look doable, especially if Fiona takes off further south and is slower to weaken. Like Ray said, the transition blows this up. The angle of approach probably maximizes potential too.

Yea, agree. I do think 930s are in play.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Agree 100%...  He just moves on from one failed hype to the next... very predictable scenario...  every year there is at least 1, if not multiple mentions of Hazel, the 38 storm and other historic events.  Compared to a decade or 2 ago, his credibility is shot...

Unfortunately, do you want to know what the real travesty is? This is probably the more profitable avenue for him at this point, since he had established a reputation as a prominent contributor in the field, he has a platform and can use the sensationalism as a vehicle for a tremendous volume of "click", which generates massive income.

If you have ever read the book on the Red Sox "Feeding the Monster", this is the equivalent of that within the meteorological industry.

[Hoth]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

929mb at the latitude of S NH 105hrs out on the EURO.

Think about that-

Insane. I believe the Euro had a few runs prior to Sandy in the upper 920s, and it bottomed around 940. Perhaps a similar situation here? Or maybe because it’s further north there’s a higher ceiling?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Insane. I believe the Euro had a few runs prior to Sandy in the upper 920s, and it bottomed around 940. Perhaps a similar situation here? Or maybe because it’s further north there’s a higher ceiling?

I think that is probably a good starting point for the over/under...

[WxWatcher007]

12z Euro

[40/70 Benchmark]

I feel like this may retain more tropical characteristics than Sandy did, though, so the winds around the core maybe stronger.

[Torch Tiger]

Decent model agreement on a major strike. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

 

If that happens, it may impact my decision to meet up with my brother in Panama City Beach at the end of October.