Tracking the Tropics

[WxWatcher007]

  On 9/15/2022 at 8:08 PM, CoastalWx said:

I like using H5 vorticity. That brings it inland on the GA/SC border to just west of New England.

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Is that a personal preference or is there something more to be gleamed from using that?

[CoastalWx]

  On 9/15/2022 at 8:16 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Is that a personal preference or is there something more to be gleamed from using that?

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Because for a mean, I find MSLP to be noisy. Seems like H5 vorticity is a better proxy for mean anyways. But, I would like to see the tracks to get the best idea.

[Modfan2]

  On 9/15/2022 at 8:18 PM, CoastalWx said:

Because for a mean, I find MSLP to be noisy. Seems like H5 vorticity is a better proxy for mean anyways. But, I would like to see the tracks to get the best idea.

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Let’s see if it holds together in the next 48 hours

[WxWatcher007]

  On 9/15/2022 at 8:59 PM, Modfan2 said:

Let’s see if it holds together in the next 48 hours

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I’d be surprised if it collapsed given how resilient it has been in the face of shear. It’s up to 60mph at 5pm despite the structure.

[MJO812]

Gfs coming in way further west and weaker. Major difference from 12z.

[WinterWolf]

  On 9/15/2022 at 10:16 PM, MJO812 said:

Gfs coming in way further west and weaker. Major difference from 12z.

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Didn’t we say that weaker at this point is better…that way it gets further west. Unless it’s going to Mexico?? 

[MJO812]

  On 9/15/2022 at 10:47 PM, WinterWolf said:

Didn’t we say that weaker at this point is better…that way it gets further west. Unless it’s going to Mexico?? 

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[MJO812]

[WinterWolf]

Thanks for posting Ant.
 

Well that’s a fantasy idea, but nice eye candy, Even though it misses us. 

[Hoth]

  On 9/15/2022 at 10:58 PM, MJO812 said:

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That would be awesome. Bill level wave action?

[It's Always Sunny]

18Z GFS doing 18Z GFS things...

[weathafella]

  On 9/15/2022 at 10:58 PM, MJO812 said:

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See ya drought

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 9/15/2022 at 11:36 PM, Hoth said:

That would be awesome. Bill level wave action?

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Not at that angle but def big ,  but not much wiggle room left or right at that angle of approach for seeing very large surf .Bill was clean huge swells from SSE/SE . This would be south swell and windy blown out conditions as posted and half that size If it moved Inland west over NC 

[ineedsnow]

GEFS getting closer

[WxWatcher007]

Keep the weenie runs coming. 

[ineedsnow]

  On 9/16/2022 at 12:23 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Keep the weenie runs coming. 

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[WxWatcher007]

I may wrap myself in a Canadian flag and sing O Canada if the CMC scores a coup here. 

[bristolri_wx]

  On 9/16/2022 at 12:22 AM, ineedsnow said:

GEFS getting closer

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Regardless of where that thing goes after the 72 hour window, it’s at least putting it in a location that’s historically favorable to make an approach if conditions are right…

[Hoth]

  On 9/16/2022 at 12:15 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

Not at that angle but def big ,  but not much wiggle room left or right at that angle of approach for seeing very large surf .Bill was clean huge swells from SSE/SE . This would be south swell and windy blown out conditions as posted and half that size If it moved Inland west over NC 

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That's an excellent point. Bill was approaching more or less straight out of the south, right? I still remember when the surf from that one first showed up. Our place on Fishers Island faces CT, so no direct exposure to the Atlantic. We were on our beach having a bonfire and a freak wave came in out of nowhere and totally snuffed the fire, soaked us to our knees, and pulled our cooler out into the Sound. That was when I realized what was happening. I hopped in the car and drove over to the Atlantic side of the island. You could hear the waves well before the ocean came into view--or rather you could hear the enormous waves sucking the rocks off the beach into the water as they receded. Biggest surf I've ever seen by a country mile. You could also see the outermost bands of Bill on the southern horizon, with lightning flashing against the night sky.   

[bristolri_wx]

[WxWatcher007]

  On 9/16/2022 at 12:49 AM, Hoth said:

That's an excellent point. Bill was approaching more or less straight out of the south, right? I still remember when the surf from that one first showed up. Our place on Fishers Island faces CT, so no direct exposure to the Atlantic. We were on our beach having a bonfire and a freak wave came in out of nowhere and totally snuffed the fire, soaked us to our knees, and pulled our cooler out into the Sound. That was when I realized what was happening. I hopped in the car and drove over to the Atlantic side of the island. You could hear the waves well before the ocean came into view--or rather you could hear the enormous waves sucking the rocks off the beach into the water as they receded. Biggest surf I've ever seen by a country mile. You could also see the outermost bands of Bill on the southern horizon, with lightning flashing against the night sky.   

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That sounds amazing 

[WinterWolf]

  On 9/16/2022 at 12:56 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

That sounds amazing 

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It sure does…we need Fiona to get her arse up here for an intimate visit.  

[Hoth]

  On 9/16/2022 at 12:56 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

That sounds amazing 

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One of my favorite weather memories, even though we didn't actually get a storm. Just really drove home how much power these things have to stir up water like that.

[Modfan2]

  On 9/16/2022 at 12:58 AM, WinterWolf said:

It sure does…we need Fiona to get her arse up here for an intimate visit.  

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I mean, a storm of that magnitude I wouldn’t want in New England; have said it before with the tree growth over the last 30 years two week power outages will the minimum.

[Cyclone-68]

Looks like I may need to restock my hermetically sealed bread and milk room

[Torch Tiger]

  On 9/16/2022 at 12:33 AM, ineedsnow said:

 

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NOGAPS 

[WxWatcher007]

Sharing this one here too. We’ll see if this is a brief deviation or something models will need to adjust to. There are some great products at this site btw.

 

[WinterWolf]

  On 9/16/2022 at 1:01 AM, Modfan2 said:

I mean, a storm of that magnitude I wouldn’t want in New England; have said it before with the tree growth over the last 30 years two week power outages will the minimum.

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Ya the damage would be huge…good thing it ain’t happening.  But we can dream right. 

[Torch Tiger]

  On 9/16/2022 at 12:54 AM, bristolri_wx said:

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All positive vibes and  to Fiona, hope she remains strong with a long and productive life.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 9/16/2022 at 12:58 AM, Hoth said:

One of my favorite weather memories, even though we didn't actually get a storm. Just really drove home how much power these things have to stir up water like that.

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Bills swell was  primarily SSE/ SE I think as that is why Maine got the biggest . The Storm was in our swell window for several days , initially It was approaching from SE-NW then SSE NNW then turned north and north east to the east of New England . 
 

look at Videos on you tube from Schoodic Point @ Arcadia . Probably 30 foot faces , biggest clean waves I’ve seen filmed on east coast . 48 seconds in is a monster breaking