Tracking the Tropics

[wxeyeNH]

12Z GFS is beautiful if you want a strong New England hurricane.  Storm intensifies as it moves north over the gulf stream  High pressure to our east blocks it from escaping out to sea.  Trough comes in from the west and yanks it northward.  Long Island up the Connecticut River.  Only 270 hours away.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

12Z GFS is beautiful if you want a strong New England hurricane.  Storm intensifies as it moves north over the gulf stream  High pressure to our east blocks it from escaping out to sea.  Trough comes in from the west and yanks it northward.  Long Island up the Connecticut River.  Only 270 hours away.

Up to that point, its similar to Bob, but the difference is that Bob was allowed to leak east beyond that....this one is blocked, so all hell breaks lose.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The blocking is key to avoid the inevitable and inexorable eastward leak in track upon approach that is often so crucial to averting disaster at this latitude. Surprising how many forecasters miss that.

[Hoth]

If that plays out verbatim, I will be taking work off and going to Fishers to watch every last tree on the island blow down a la 1815. 

[wxeyeNH]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The blocking is key to avoid the inevitable and inexorable eastward leak in track upon approach that is often so crucial to averting disaster at this latitude. Surprising how many forecasters miss that.

For a big storm in New England (wind) the storm center has to stay west.  The other factor is that a storm starts weakening north of the Carolina's so you need a strong trough to the west to yank it north very quickly. 

At least this is something to watch although what could go wrong? Dry air, wind shear, islands with mountains, high pressure and trough location and only 270 hours out.

[dendrite]

My early call is 66F, partly cloudy, wind WNW 8mph

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The blocking is key to avoid the inevitable and inexorable eastward leak in track upon approach that is often so crucial to averting disaster at this latitude. Surprising how many forecasters miss that.

Something will save us from disaster…it (just about) always does. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Something will save us from disaster…it (just about) always does. 

One day it won't-

[Modfan2]

28 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

12Z GFS is beautiful if you want a strong New England hurricane.  Storm intensifies as it moves north over the gulf stream  High pressure to our east blocks it from escaping out to sea.  Trough comes in from the west and yanks it northward.  Long Island up the Connecticut River.  Only 270 hours away.

Lock it Lol! That’s a James storm if I ever saw one!

[Cyclone-68]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The thing that matters right now is organization and survival in a marginal to hostile environment. Zero concerns about track currently IMO. 

Shhh! Reverse logic lol 

[40/70 Benchmark]

CMC ends up in the GOM, and ICON near the Bahamas...NAVGEM looks like it may recurve east of Bahamas..

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Something will save us from disaster…it (just about) always does. 

Sorry but I'd lock this one in. I recently moved to VA after years of cheerleading 1938 vol. 2, so it's pretty much inevitable up there now. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Step one ... upgrade to Depression status -

Presently looks really healthy on conventional sat channels...  

[WxWatcher007]

I’m not going to lie, I’d love to see our boring period end with a bang. September cane or October nuke. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m not going to lie, I’d love to see our boring period end with a bang. September cane or October nuke. 

This.
 

Agreed. 

[WinterWolf]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One day it won't-

For sure…but we always seem to be saved every year from the big one. It will happen eventually as you said.

But when?  

[Hoth]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

For sure…but we always seem to be saved every year from the big one. It will happen eventually as you said.

But when?  

1635, 1815, 1938, …? The top dogs seem to only show up every 100-150 years or so. Could still be a while. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

1635, 1815, 1938, …? The top dogs seem to only show up every 100-150 years or so. Could still be a while. 

Well, we have the Carol's, Donna's, Gloria's and Bob's sprinkled in that at a greater rate of return, which are destructive enough in their own right.

We are overdue for one of those.

[Torch Tiger]

Euro kinda looks no bueno, just a guess, only saw D7.

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

1635, 1815, 1938, …? The top dogs seem to only show up every 100-150 years or so. Could still be a while. 

1944 and 1821 were pretty decent.

[Hoth]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, we have the Carol's, Donna's, Gloria's and Bob's sprinkled in that at a greater rate of return, which are destructive enough in their own right.

We are overdue for one of those.

Absolutely. Those are probably more like a 30-50 year return rate I’d guess. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro is fish which is the likely scenario, but has something anyways.

[CoastalWx]

Tossed for gfs.  

[Torch Tiger]

Looks like the storm is left behind @ 240?  Either way, the Euro on board with a decent hurricane somewhere off the coast.  That's a start

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is fish which is the likely scenario, but has something anyways.

99% chance it’s a fish…that’s a given.  But the fact it has something there, is all we need to know at the moment. 

[SnoSki14]

Models can't figure things out 5 days out let alone 10. 

For example Euro's mega ridge from a couple runs ago is completely gone. 

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tossed for gfs.  

These two guidance have flip (reversed) across the western hemisphere entirely from where they were 24 hours ago.  Yesterday, the Euro was a warm ridge and the GFS was the bully N stream.   Utterly, flipped.  12z GFS now carries a bulging heat dome/ridge after this next Wed, and the Euro looks well above 50% similar to those previous GFS runs.

Either solution could prevail. ..

I can see why they are tussling over it.  The entire N arc of the Pacific circulation mode is entering an A/B phase due to the absorption of a "Merbok" into a two stream phase over the eastern limb of the WPO domain, ...sending a shock wave through the flow that ends up as a powerful jet moving SE through Canada in a week.   That's the gist of this Euro, and the previous GFS ( again, now flipped themes).

The models are taking turns with more than less proficiency in that phase and subsequent consequence down stream.  

Which... if there is going to be a hurricane to monitor - that's not really part of that above, but it could 'chancy' be in the right(wrong) place at the right(wrong) time...etc..etc...  That's all this is - timing as far as the hurricane part of this.  

[Hoth]

Some hints at lower heights in the GL at the end of the run, but nothing like the GFS. 

[Whineminster]

We're so much more infrastructure hardened now than those old years. People will be sorely disappointed. ASEMAATT had a friggin 100 mph wind blaster spectacular last October, and yeah they didn't have power for a week but it wasn't a humanitarian crisis. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is fish which is the likely scenario, but has something anyways.

Yea, will probably end up OTS.