40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 Not much to track, so we reminisce.... The wee hours of this morning represent the 30th anniversary of the first meteorological event that I ever pulled an all-nighter for in the landfall of Hurricane Andrew in south Florida. Even as an 11 year old, I couldn't fathom the scenes of destruction that came out of there and it took me decades to comprehend the gravity of what would have taken place had that storm made landfall about a mere 10 mi to the north, in downtown Miami. It will happen at some point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 Shredded Homestead AFB. Think reports were 2’ thick ribar was no match 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 @butterfish55 lived through this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 I do remember the initial reports in the Miami area were “this isn’t so bad..” However later on that day, they started getting reports out of the Homestead area of complete devastation. That’s when the aerial images started to appear on the news. Katrina was similar in the reporting too. “Oh the city looks to have been spared…....” A few hours later it was flooded. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2022 Author Share Posted August 24, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: I do remember the initial reports in the Miami area were “this isn’t so bad..” However later on that day, they started getting reports out of the Homestead area of complete devastation. That’s when the aerial images started to appear on the news. Katrina was similar in the reporting too. “Oh the city looks to have been spared…....” A few hours later it was flooded. Relative bullet dodged in both instances...Katrina really weakened and veered east, as it ended up a glorified N GOM collapser. Andrew just whiffed Miami to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 My clearest memory was listening to the hurricane center in Coral Gables as they reported a gust of 164 mph, followed by a very audible crash as the radar dome blew over. Several days later, we were supposed to get siggy RA plus storm force winds from the remnants, got some sprinkles and winds 20-30, not enough to cancel a bass-fishing day with fun-only "contest" in Newcastle, all fish released after measuring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2022 Author Share Posted August 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, tamarack said: My clearest memory was listening to the hurricane center in Coral Gables as they reported a gust of 164 mph, followed by a very audible crash as the radar dome blew over. Several days later, we were supposed to get siggy RA plus storm force winds from the remnants, got some sprinkles and winds 20-30, not enough to cancel a bass-fishing day with fun-only "contest" in Newcastle, all fish released after measuring. I remember seeing a young Cantore and his afro sitting in the forecast office....back before his field days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2022 Author Share Posted August 24, 2022 Dennis Smith was in the field, I remember. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 Didn’t know about this one 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 Some still don’t think this matters , it does 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 doesn't get much better looking than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 56 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: doesn't get much better looking than that Lock it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 Wake me up when they’re convectively active 1,000 miles west of the CVs. Stability has been a killer this season. The tropical Atlantic has been a graveyard for great waves. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2022 Author Share Posted August 25, 2022 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wake me up when they’re convectively active 1,000 miles west of the CVs. Stability has been a killer this season. The tropical Atlantic has been a graveyard for great waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 22 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: @butterfish55 lived through this. Can confirm....Freshman year at UMiami. Arrived on campus and moved into my dorm and Andrew hit early the next morning. The NHC at that time was located right across the street on US1. Their last recorded windspeed was 142 mph before they stopped reporting. Campus was pretty much destroyed. After 2 days they closed campus for 2 (maybe 3?) weeks and told everybody to go home. It was an amazing storm. I'll never forget the sound of the wind...Like sitting above the wing of an airplane while it's taking off. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 1 hour ago, butterfish55 said: Can confirm....Freshman year at UMiami. Arrived on campus and moved into my dorm and Andrew hit early the next morning. The NHC at that time was located right across the street on US1. Their last recorded windspeed was 142 mph before they stopped reporting. Campus was pretty much destroyed. After 2 days they closed campus for 2 (maybe 3?) weeks and told everybody to go home. It was an amazing storm. I'll never forget the sound of the wind...Like sitting above the wing of an airplane while it's taking off. Were you scared? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 Were you scared? No....I was on the second floor of a dorm. I thought it was pretty cool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 Harvey five years ago. This one a little further back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2022 Author Share Posted August 25, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Harvey five years ago. This one a little further back. Even that would be NBD where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even that would be NBD where I am. East scraper FTL. Those up the valley tracks are hard to come by. Though that might be too far west for you lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 Probably a good thing it tracked that way or Plymouth would have become a second Roanoke colony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2022 Author Share Posted August 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: East scraper FTL. Those up the valley tracks are hard to come by. Though that might be too far west for you lol. Gloria tracked out there an it was pretty good in this area. The wind field expands to the east, while contracting to the west with extratropical transition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 some of the 12z EPS members might be good for a east coast hit if it ran a little longer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2022 Author Share Posted August 26, 2022 16 hours ago, ineedsnow said: some of the 12z EPS members might be good for a east coast hit if it ran a little longer Always instills a lot of confidence when you need to long for a DGEX like extension in order to see the potential fruits of the season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Always instills a lot of confidence when you need to long for a DGEX like extension in order to see the potential fruits of the season. I don't even agree - not sure what the poster is looking at. That circulation mode wouldn't allow an EC engagement. But not sure exactly what they are seeing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 NHC seems quite hog-tied to the models in recent era. I noticed this behavior began some .. 7 or so years ago, where they don't pull the trigger on Invests regions, unless the models emerge a cyclone in that same vicinity. It's purely a statistical move, I suspect. Though not sure ... they may be able to prove the models have crossed over a skill threshold, where/when they now can project discrete regions of interest with superior ability over human observation-based extrapolations. Fine... you use what works. But looking out over the MDR since yesterday... they carry on with two, low chance Invests. One near 65W over the eastern Caribbean, the other near the same latitude way east near the Cape Verdi Islands. The vast region in between ...? Nothing - Meanwhile, there has been a persistent deep convective event existing in perpetuity ... in the vast region in between. One that now appears to be taking on cyclonic motion on higher res vis imagery as the dawn swept over the Basin. They may right. This isn't intended to cast shade or doubt, or deride their skill and efforts...It's just that it's a little head scratching at times like these, when they're holding onto coughing entities while ignoring the health of the other contender. Now watch... just because I post this missive... in 2 hours flat it'll disappear in spite of 24 to 30 hour of perpetuity... and the other two will explode - typical. They probably have some kind of super ensemble regression algorithms or some Sci Fi shit going on to deduce stuff, were as we the hoi polloi celebrate our egos as prognosticators by utilizing the granular crap we get for free on the cartoon web sites. ...so whatever. I "think" the eastern Caribbean disturbance might be the one the overnight GFS solutions eventually bomb in the Gulf - I mean, I don't deny the disturbance is actually there. Nor abase needing to monitor it. I just wonder if this might be a rare situ where the mid MDR feature, being ignored, dark-horses the spin-up race. SAL does not leap out as being very preventative per Wisc.edu, nor does the relative shear in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 26, 2022 Author Share Posted August 26, 2022 I'm just in complete "believe when see" mode with respect to the tropics right now. I don't care to look, or even discuss any model output and you frankly couldn't pay me two give a rat's ass until something actually develops and is flourishing on the map in real time. I just have no interest in the latest 240 hour artifact of your laptop whipping up the virtual Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm just in complete "believe when see" mode with respect to the tropics right now. I don't care to look, or even discuss any model output and you frankly couldn't pay me two give a rat's ass until something actually develops and is on the map and flourishing. Wow ..someone's in a huffy mode today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 Is there any opportunity for any “home grown” cyclone threats this fall? Cape Verde is nice but obviously too many things can go wrong traveling hundreds of miles across the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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