Winter 2022-2023 Outlook Discussion

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Because it’s never too early to be wrong 

Farmer’s Almanac

 

 

[GaWx]

My early feelings about the SE's winter of 2022-3 fwiw:

 We're headed toward a third fall/winter in a row with cold ENSO. Eight others since 1850-51 are as follows based on Eric Webb's research:

1874-5, 1894-5, 1910-1, 1917-8, 1956-7, 1975-6, 1985-6, and 2000-1

 

 Here are how it went for these 8 in the SE in general:

 - 1874-5: nothing of note

 - 1894-5: Feb was the coldest and snowiest Feb on record with back to back extreme cold plunges and heavy snow to the Gulf coast; also, late Dec. had one extreme cold plunge and Jan was pretty cold overall

 - 1910-1: cold Dec and an Arctic plunge early Jan; otherwise nothing of note

 - 1917-8: Dec-Jan along with 1976-7 within the two coldest Dec-Jan periods on record and included well above normal wintry precip. in many areas to the Gulf coast

 -1956-7: nothing notable/mild winter

 -1975-6: cool to cold Dec-Jan overall with several Arctic plunges

 - 1985-6: cold Dec; several Arctic plunges through the winter 

 - 2000-01: one of coldest Decembers on record; some had generous amounts of snow in Dec as compared to climo such as 3" at Atlanta

 

 Summary of SE US temperatures:

- Dec: 5 of 8 cold to cool along with an Arctic plunge in one of the other 4 with only one mild

- Jan: 3 of 8 cold with only one mild

- Feb: 6 of 8 mild (actually the last 6) although 1895 coldest on record

 

 My conclusions for SE US this winter based on these 8 ENSO analogs:

- Although sample size isn't that big, this analog set is encouraging me to feel that's there's a very good shot at a chilly Dec and a decent chance at a chilly Jan.

- These analogs suggest a very good chance for a mild Feb although 1895 says don't assume anything.

- With 3 of these 8 analogs having historic 1-2 month periods of cold accompanied by ample to historic wintry precip (1894-5, 1917-8, 2000-1), I think there's a good chance for a memorable several week+ period for cold and wintry precip. this winter.

------------------------

I used this from Eric Webb to find the ENSO analogs:

https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/ens_oni_magi_definitions_timeseries_jan_1850_-_jul_2022.xlsx

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Below average/EC trough: Sept 23 - Oct 10 is the theme. We haven't seen anything close to what is going to happen since 2003. This year stands out. Follow the images. many. all with the same starting theme. Above and below average years. (It tends to happens in clusters:)

[WinstonSalemArlington]

I love a chilly October, but I also fear it's correlated to a mild winter 

[Met1985]

3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

The love a chilly October, but I also fear it's correlated to a mild winter 

Id say there is really no correlation.  As we have seen some very mild October's and mild winters following. Seasons in Seasons are fine with me.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Swinging between mild to chilly for next 12 days

 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Anyway, check out this +PNA signal after we have an anomalous trough/ridge over the EC Sept23-Oct10

(whole earth is cold actually.. ^14 years since 1986, 1948-2020 maps are warmer/2nd half ) 

+PNA December too (mountains SE have biggest snowstorms in Dec)

if we can -EPO October, like I think we will

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[Shack]

Looking for Grit's thoughts.  Always a good read.

[CaryWx]

1 hour ago, Shack said:

Looking for Grit's thoughts.  Always a good read.

This.

[eyewall]

[Upstate Tiger]

9 hours ago, eyewall said:

This combined with the data shared today on pre 1990 October freezes is pretty eye opening.  Depending on perspective, one could assume a change is inevitable.  I’m going to enjoy this awesome stretch of fall weather and hope for a good winter storm or 2. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[Met1985]

8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

That's not too bad of a look but I'll take that with a grain of salt also.

[eyewall]

On 10/20/2022 at 11:30 AM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

Wash, rinse, repeat.

[GaWx]

On 10/20/2022 at 11:30 AM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

Folks,

 Keep in mind that this map is showing probabilities. The SE US is in the 33-50% chance range for above normal (based on 30 year average) ("A") temperatures. That means that none of the SE actually has a likelihood of A. Rather, the SE has a higher chance for A than for either N or B. For example, let's say you're on the 40% chance for A line (as is the case for RDU, CLT, CAE, AGS, and MCN). That means your area has a 40% chance for A, 33% chance for N, and 27% chance for B. I got that info from here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal_info.php

 In my 1st post ITT (two months ago), I listed eight 3rd year cold ENSO analog winters using Eric Webb's tables. Here's how those turned out at ATL:

- 1874-5: N (based on AGS, MGM, & SAV being N since ATL N/A)

- 1894-5: B

- 1910-1: N

- 1917-8: B

- 1956-7: A

- 1975-6: N

- 1985-6: N

- 2000-1: B

 

 Tally for ATL for eight analogs:

3 B, 4 N, and 1 A.

 So, fwiw based on the 3rd year cold ENSO analogs, the SE US has a very good shot at not having a mild winter. Instead, the higher likelihood is for just one of the three months to be mild. 
 
 For these eight winters at ATL, here are the # of mild months:

- two winters had two

- four winters had one

- two winters had none

 

 Here are the # of cold months:

- one winter had two

- five winters had one

- two winters had none

 

 Based on all of this, the best bet is probably for one mild month, one near normal month, and one cold month. The last three of these eight winters were that way. That one cold month would have a good chance to be pretty memorable as were Feb of 1895, Dec of 1910, Dec of 1917, Jan of 1918, and Dec of 2000.

[GaWx]

On 10/22/2022 at 11:23 PM, GaWx said:

 In my 1st post ITT (two months ago), I listed eight 3rd year cold ENSO analog winters using Eric Webb's tables. Here's how those turned out at ATL:

- 1874-5: N (based on AGS, MGM, & SAV being N since ATL N/A)

- 1894-5: B

- 1910-1: N

- 1917-8: B

- 1956-7: A

- 1975-6: N

- 1985-6: N

- 2000-1: B

 

 Tally for ATL for eight analogs:

3 B, 4 N, and 1 A.

 So, fwiw based on the 3rd year cold ENSO analogs, the SE US has a very good shot at not having a mild winter. Instead, the higher likelihood is for just one of the three months to be mild. 
 
 For these eight winters at ATL, here are the # of mild months:

- two winters had two

- four winters had one

- two winters had none

 

 Here are the # of cold months:

- one winter had two

- five winters had one

- two winters had none

 

 Based on all of this, the best bet is probably for one mild month, one near normal month, and one cold month. The last three of these eight winters were that way. That one cold month would have a good chance to be pretty memorable as were Feb of 1895, Dec of 1910, Dec of 1917, Jan of 1918, and Dec of 2000.

 My post above based on 3rd year cold ENSO analogs said that the best bet for this DJF was for one mild, one near normal, and one cold. Dec was near normal. Jan, based on actual first week and forecasts through midmonth, will very likely be 7-9 AN for the first half. Combined with more warmth forecast by model consensus to dominate 1/16-1/21 means that Jan will almost certainly end up mild.

 So, that means one near normal and one mild for DJ. One might then think based on the original best bet to look for Feb to be cold. Maybe that will happen but La Niña climo will make that quite the challenge.

 I looked at the 34 La Niña Febs over the last 140+ years at ATL:

- 18 AN

- 11 NN

- only 5 BN (15%): 2006, 1934, 1917, 1910, 1904

 
 So, La Nina climo says bet heavily against a cold Feb. But my original best bet suggested one cold month. Will 2023 be one of the unusual cold La Niña Febs? Nobody knows.

 By the way, Feb of 1895 (3rd year cold ENSO) was record cold, but it was during cold neutral ENSO rather than La Niña.