Invest 90L

[GaWx]

 90L has just been designated. This based on projected steering is a potential troublemaker for the E Caribbean, Bahamas, and the CONUS for around late next week. It is the so called "lead AEW" that is now near 16N, 29-30W, that has lead to a good number of GFS runs (back to the 0Z of 8/15 run), many GEFS members, and some EPS members doing just that. 

 OTOH, the Euro had done little with it until the 12Z 8/19 run though it had one earlier run (8/12/22 12Z) with a weak but organizing surface low late. Today's 0Z Euro did have this at 992 mb just E of the Bahamas at day 10.

 Starting last night near DMAX, convection centered on the weak low blossomed and it has maintained itself. The latest SAL outbreak's SE edge has been moving westward with this to its NW and N, but has so far remained separated and allowed the convection to hold on many hours past DMAX.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al902022

AL, 90, 2022082212, , BEST, 0, 162N, 293W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al782022 to al902022

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde 
Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this 
system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 to 
15 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Latto

 

[Windspeed]

Really depends on where (if) a low can close off within the axis for potential downstream intensification. The overall wave is just a little too far north where SSTs are probably too marginal for significant development. However, if any circulation develops further south, it will have a much better envelope for development. I am kind of meh on this for now. We shall see...

[WxWatcher007]

Seems a little early for an invest, but I guess we get extra data. SHIPS has a pretty hostile environment ahead, consistent with my thought (and operational guidance) that this doesn’t develop until it reaches 60W at least.

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Seems a little early for an invest, but I guess we get extra data. SHIPS has a pretty hostile environment ahead, consistent with my thought (and operational guidance) that this doesn’t develop until it reaches 60W at least.

it is very early and convection will likely wane (like it is now doing) and wax for the next several days.

So far, it continues to remain largely separated from the nearby strong SAL as they both move westward.

[WxWatcher007]

38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

it is very early and convection will likely wane (like it is now doing) and wax for the next several days.

So far, it continues to remain largely separated from the nearby strong SAL as they both move westward.

Yeah this should be an interesting one to track. It has potential, but it’s heavily dependent on an environment we’re not quite sure about yet. 

[GaWx]

 This gets to as strong as a 982 mb hurricane on the 12Z GFS on Sept 3rd as it recurves well offshore the US after getting as far west as 70W (at 30N) on Sept 1st.

[Floydbuster]

Wake me when it crosses 60W.

[NorthHillsWx]

This will be the first one to set the table for future AEWs. GFS does a good job showing how the SAL circulating through the MDR is modified after each wave passage and the environment becomes better and better. The end of the GFS run shows a very moist environment after the passage of subsequent waves that should lead to MDR development coinciding with peak season.

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 This gets to as strong as a 982 mb hurricane on the 12Z GFS on Sept 3rd as it recurves well offshore the US after getting as far west as 70W (at 30N) on Sept 1st.

I guess we will see  if  it shows  up on the Euro shortly. One  bad sign is  it doesnt do anything  on the GFS until it escapes the  tropics. Will it  make  it all the way across with any gas  left to try to develop off the SE? Other than that everything  else  is  once again delayed. If this craps  out then 0/0/0 Aug looks golden.

 

 

 

 

Getting  from 30 to 70 thru all this hostility  will be fun to watch but what the  heck, at  least  for  now its a wave with showers. I personally would  have waited a few days to call it an invest just to see  if it survives. 2 PTC's already couldnt  make  it.

 

 

You can see the  Cat5 TUTT ne  of PR.  2 things will happen. It will vamoose and give 90L a slight  chance or  it sits right there and knocks the snot  out  of  90L. If that TUTT is still there in 4 days then development drops to 0/0

 

Andy isnt terribly  optimistic for  90L, and  peak season cancel?

 

Euro bows to King TUTT and the  bone dry air. Nothing  thru 192 from 90L. I think we are  being  punked about this  being  MJO phase 2, lol. Yea, Euro shows something weak at  192 but  that will likely  get  pushed  back and  it still has  tha  Cat 5 TUTT to get thru. I really think there was  no need to call this an  invest. Maybe they are  just  bored.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

 

I  dont think i have ever seen a  bigger  nothing season than this year. Prospects  overall dont  look good. For  "homebrews" you  need several things.

A-waves that  can hold together and  make  it  to the waters  off the  SE coast. Not this season

B-High pressure  locked  in the NW ATL. We  have  low  pressure. 

C-The area  just  off Africa offers the  best  chance for something to develop but  who cares?

I  apologize  for  posting about the entire tropics  here  but  i only  have  5 posts. I will be  back in the  other thread after this. I doubt  90L will be worth  posting about.

I think the green stuff East  of FLA is  90L. On satellite  it appears to be rapidly  drying  up for  now.

 

[GaWx]

 The NHC has raised the 2 day chance for TC formation for this from 0% to 10% and the 5 day chance from 20% to 30% as of the 2PM TWO.

 We're currently just past DMIN out there and convection did diminish as expected per models. Let's see what happens tonight with DMAX.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The NHC has raised the 2 day chance for TC formation for this from 0% to 10% and the 5 day chance from 20% to 30% as of the 2PM TWO.

 We're currently just past DMIN out there and convection did diminish as expected per models. Let's see what happens tonight with DMAX.

They also had that last gulf system as >70% haha 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

They also had that last gulf system as >70% haha 

They’re all different, but yeah.   

[GaWx]

 Looking at the closeup loop shows that despite the current lack of significant convection there is still a rather tight circulation centered near 16.2N, 32.7W moving westward still just to the SE of the westward stratocumulus/SAL. 
 
 Will convection come back with later tonight's DMAX like it did last night? DMAX out that far east is probably somewhere around 1-6 AM EDT.

[GaWx]

Considering how it looked at this time yesterday and that we're approaching DMAX where it is, this is currently looking pretty anemic. Thus, this is not surprising:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 
Shower activity has diminished somewhat associated with a tropical 
wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for 
gradual development during the next several days while the system 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the 
tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Small naked swirl approaching 40W, but the storms, what they are, are well East of it.  It sure doesn't look like it wants to develop.  That swirl is well West, almost 5 degrees, from where the invest officially is.

[WxWatcher007]

It would have been nice to see a quick spin up, but that’s just not the basin environment we have. Whatever develops here and elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic is going to go through a prolonged and ugly process.

The further south and west a disturbance is, away from dry/stable air and shear by incessant wave breaking induced shear, will have better odds. Problem is a wave has to avoid being suffocated by dry air or run through the wood chipper by shear before getting to the fabled Goldilocks zone.  

[ldub23]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It would have been nice to see a quick spin up, but that’s just not the basin environment we have. Whatever develops here and elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic is going to go through a prolonged and ugly process.

The further south and west a disturbance is, away from dry/stable air and shear by incessant wave breaking induced shear, will have better odds. Problem is a wave has to avoid being suffocated by dry air or run through the wood chipper by shear before getting to the fabled Goldilocks zone.  

I think we are down now to a  1 storm scenario now. Can a  storm fight thru the Sahara and somehow  find a  place to develop and threaten the  coast? By the way, as expected the  Euro is showing  my "Who gives a damn storm". If  its accurate it  will either  bebop or  just  die.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I think we are down now to a  1 storm scenario now. Can a  storm fight thru the Sahara and somehow  find a  place to develop and threaten the  coast? By the way, as expected the  Euro is showing  my "Who gives a damn storm". If  its accurate it  will either  bebop or  just  die.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

If you’re talking about August, I think I agree. September will have more than 1 NS/hurricane/major IMO. Even if the eastern MDR continues to suck, the Caribbean should start opening up and it shouldn’t have the same dry air and stability issues. Not sure about shear if this WB keeps happening. 

[GaWx]

 NHC TWO down to 0%/10% as of 8AM EDT after being as high as 10%/30% yesterday. Continuing to look more anemic to me vs early yesterday morning when there was a ball of convection near a circulation center at DMAX. DMAX early this morning was very unimpressive. Apparently that nearby SAL is close enough to help to keep this in check:

 
 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic: 
Shower activity remains minimal in association with a tropical 
wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur 
during the next several days while the system moves westward to 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

Not surprising. We’re looking at a much longer time horizon with this one, if it even develops at all. 

I wonder if/when they will put lemons on the trailing wave and potential disturbance near the Antilles. Those have some ensemble support. 

[Kevin Reilly]

26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not surprising. We’re looking at a much longer time horizon with this one, if it even develops at all. 

I wonder if/when they will put lemons on the trailing wave and potential disturbance near the Antilles. Those have some ensemble support. 

Yep, agree think the development region area to focus on will be as it gets Puerto Rico Points west long way to go but we are closing in on nothing for August as the days dwindle away. There is also a string of upper air lows to contend with too as it heads westbound it's a real wait and see. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The satellite naked LLC swirl 5 degrees W of the invest location has disappeared.  Maybe this comes back next weekend, but it is dead.  Pining for the fjords.  Ya murio.

 

I'd say next but this probably a week away, minimum.