Carvers Gap Posted November 16, 2022 Author Share Posted November 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: I'm thinking mainly warm phases until SST'S warm further East. However, low amp may be the case, and other Drivers (east aligned Nina Ridge and HLB) may trump. That is my thinking. The Nina pattern around the dateline(cool SSTs) does not favor convection. Now, if the Nino manages to be slightly ahead of schedule or there is some warm upwelling, that could help us during the second half of winter. Either way, I think we see some help on the Atlantic side and maybe a very jostled strat most of the winter. I would not be surprised to see some sort of Alaska origin, cold air train. Basically a high in the Aleutians(not good), but AN heights over Greenland and HB. That would send the cold air down the Rockies. It would modify as it slides eastward under the Greenland/HB block but might be cold enough. Storm track would be a sneaky bonus. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 We were something like +10 for the first 12 days of the month. In the last few days it's already shaved down to +4 here. We will be well BN for the month by the time this cold snap eases up around next Monday. Not sure if we will be able to recover back to AN or not, the CPC basically closes the month out with normal to below normal temps in the 8-14 day range. The GFS and GEFS have additional cold shots black Friday into that Monday and also in the D14-16 range. I feel pretty good about November closing out BN overall. Usually, but not always, a sign that there will at the least be a stretch of very memorable winter weather in the valley region. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 hours ago, John1122 said: We were something like +10 for the first 12 days of the month. In the last few days it's already shaved down to +4 here. We will be well BN for the month by the time this cold snap eases up around next Monday. Not sure if we will be able to recover back to AN or not, the CPC basically closes the month out with normal to below normal temps in the 8-14 day range. The GFS and GEFS have additional cold shots black Friday into that Monday and also in the D14-16 range. I feel pretty good about November closing out BN overall. Usually, but not always, a sign that there will at the least be a stretch of very memorable winter weather in the valley region. Yep, correlation is pretty decent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Euro had an interesting evolution at the end of its run overnight: Obviously not a great look for anywhere outside of SWVA and elevations, but at least it's something. Hopefully it ends up better than the last one I was interested in, lol. GFS quite a bit different with its evolution of the system. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 A few days ago that was severe coming up from the Gulf. Now it's a clipper. Trends like that are bullish cold, but I remain pessimistic. Anytime I'm optimistic it's a jinx. Getting serious, two streams were always progged for Thanksgiving. Appears the northern one is now dominant vs previous southern. The obligatory Midwest winter storm for Thanksgiving is now forecast. If that holds, I'll be in the Southeast Mountains thread. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Euro had an interesting evolution at the end of its run overnight: Obviously not a great look for anywhere outside of SWVA and elevations, but at least it's something. Hopefully it ends up better than the last one I was interested in, lol. GFS quite a bit different with its evolution of the system. A little more cold ahead of that here and it could wind up being a decent snow storm. Still maybe a couple inches in Valley's with a decent amount up high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Euro had an interesting evolution at the end of its run overnight: Obviously not a great look for anywhere outside of SWVA and elevations, but at least it's something. Hopefully it ends up better than the last one I was interested in, lol. GFS quite a bit different with its evolution of the system. 12z GFS has that now almost exactly. If real, that is a pretty significant upslope snow event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Is this the time where we talk about the Euro holding back shortwaves in the SW too long 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Is this the time where we talk about the Euro holding back shortwaves in the SW too long Yeah, sure looks to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 I know it won’t happen but there’s a major hurricane approaching Florida in the long range GFS. F* that mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 You -NAO lovers are gonna love the 6z GFS: Of course it is still waaayyyy out there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 No idea if correct, but the blocking up top looks short lived. Could easily be models decaying that pattern too quickly, and we have seen that many times before. OTH, the MJO is not gonna play nice, and we could be seeing a ridge back in the East to start December (duration TBD). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 Just to tag onto my post above. Blocking over Greenland is not far enough southwest to fight the upcoming PAC pattern which is nearly opposite of optimal for cold in the East. It is not a classic Greenland block on the GEFS. Need it centered closer to the Davis Straits. Otherwise, Michigan benefits and cold doesn’t press. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 53 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: You -NAO lovers are gonna love the 6z GFS: Of course it is still waaayyyy out there. That is the textbook look we need. Ensemble is continuing the meh look from the past several runs which sends a ridge into the middle of the country and builds eastward. This could be a time where the operational may lead the way. It seems like the GFS operational does handle early season cold better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 it's a situation where it would be fun to see how many Ensemble members show such stout blocking and which don't, to give us the more washed out meh look. Is it like a big snow on the ensembles where one or two with major blocking skew the mean, or more of an even split? Not sure there is a model service that gives individual ensemble members H5 looks though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Just to tag onto my post above. Blocking over Greenland is not far enough southwest to fight the upcoming PAC pattern which is nearly opposite of optimal for cold in the East. It is not a classic Greenland block on the GEFS. Need it centered closer to the Davis Straits. Otherwise, Michigan benefits and cold doesn’t press. Yeah, exactly the problem. Hoping it wraps back and presses on down. Could be the Pac jet fighting it from pressing on down on ensembles. Da** Nina. Masiello thinks late Nov. Early Dec. will mirror 1975 until the MJO moves into p. 7 and traverses thru 8-1 and flips pattern to cold snowy East. Obviously he feels confident it will make it to cold Phases. He also thinks HLB will be in place. You know my thoughts regarding the MJO. IF a strong PAC Jet gets established, it'll be hard to alter with help from MJO even in cold phases at low amplitude. Let's hope Masiello is right and my old , rusty has been arse is wrong irt the MJO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, exactly the problem. Hoping it wraps back and presses on down. Could be the Pac jet fighting it from pressing on down on ensembles. Da** Nina. Masiello thinks late Nov. Early Dec. will mirror 1975 until the MJO moves into p. 7 and traverses thru 8-1 and flips pattern to cold snowy East. Obviously he feels confident it will make it to cold Phases. He also thinks HLB will be in place. You know my thoughts regarding the MJO. IF a strong PAC Jet gets established, it'll be hard to alter with help from MJO even in cold phases at low amplitude. Let's hope Masiello is right and my old , rusty has been arse is wrong irt the MJO. Remind me of late Nov/early Dec 1975..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: it's a situation where it would be fun to see how many Ensemble members show such stout blocking and which don't, to give us the more washed out meh look. Is it like a big snow on the ensembles where one or two with major blocking skew the mean, or more of an even split? Not sure there is a model service that gives individual ensemble members H5 looks though. Cosgrove noted on FB just a few mins ago that he thinks the morning operational runs might have been in error w/ re: to the absence of snow and a storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Remind me of late Nov/early Dec 1975..... Mild late Nov. but quickly progressed cold trough in East. This maps centered Nov. 29. Check out Dec. 2. Trough already in East. https://vortex.plymouth.edu/wxp/cgi-bin/upa/gen-ctrmap-a.cgi?re=us&le=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&yy=1975&mm=11&dd=29&hh=12&sc=1.0&ge=912x650&pg=web 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 If, the pattern were to follow that 3rd year nina winter verbatim, it would be fairly cold here with several snowfalls, albeit they were minor events, generally 1-4 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 The 12z GFS...Pretty good look around the 26th. Cosgrove was money with that comment on social media. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Agree with Cosgrove on the Storm. He's a good Met and an old timer as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 12z Euro w/ same wave-along-a-front set up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Let's get this party bus rolling. At the very least it might roll in the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z Euro w/ same wave-along-a-front set up. Yeah the euro is definitely showing a more prominent cold storm for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah the euro is definitely showing a more prominent cold storm for sure. The energy dives in and is negatively tilted (versus not on the last run) over the central TN valley as compared to the prior run. LONG way to go at 168 hours out.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 1. The overal northern stream dominance reminds me a lot of 14-15. 2. 12z EPS looks much better than this morning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Gfs "caved" to euro at 12z. Can we squeeze out an extremely borderline NW event over Thanksgiving Weekend? This 5 day change is crazy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 20, 2022 Author Share Posted November 20, 2022 The 12z GFS is a doozy of a solution. That is rain changing to snow in the northwest quadrant. Mountains would get hammered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GFS is a doozy of a solution. That is rain changing to snow in the northwest quadrant. Mountains would get hammered. Yeah, wouldn't be surprised parts of the area get hammered. I've saw some heavy Snowfall on the SSW side of a LP with a negatively tilted Trough. In almost all cases, more than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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