Fall 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro and GFS are pretty optimistic for plateau areas for rain Friday:

Euro:

 

GFS:

 

The occasional snow chances that had been showing up aren't looking so hot right now, but that could always change. At any rate, more precip is coming next week too to help with the drought. 

[John1122]

I'll take a good soaker just for the final nail in the fire coffin.  There's been a fire a few miles from here all week. Gets smoky in the evenings. 

[John1122]

That said, the 18z GFS is a good snow event for the MidState and West Tennessee. The 12z was snowmageddon for Kentucky and the northern areas Plateau and West. So a winter storm is still on the table for somewhere in the region but we know that story. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

If nothing else, finally get to get some fires in the fireplace for the Holiday mood. Euro looks nice and chilly especially long range. 

Nice Aleutian low, AK ridge, and room for something to sneak in across the southern US and perhaps time it right with a cold HP from Canada. 

[John1122]

They aren't as aggressive but the Euro and Canadian took small steps towards the GFS regarding potential snow in our region.  Cold is looking to settle in for a decent stretch.

[PowellVolz]

Not sure if right thread but we know the MS river is very low & dry.  Now we have the fire dangers starting. This is near Rockwood off I40 tonight. 

This was a controlled burn


.

[Matthew70]

9 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

This was a controlled burn


.

Thank you for the update. 

[PowellVolz]

Thank you for the update. 

However it looked ferocious in the pictures and videos.


.

[Knoxtron]

Anyone buying the highres NAM? Looks like we'd get a solid dusting tomorrow night up on Walden Ridge/Plateau 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The NAM has definitely trying to honk on a flurry or two for me. Are you atop a mt. down near Soddy-Daisy @Knoxtron? I would be down for what the NAM is selling. 

MRX is kinda-sorta interested in the next system: 

The main question with this system will be
temperatures at the onset of precip Tuesday morning. It will be a
race between precip arrival and warm advection bringing surface
temps above freezing. Model soundings show a prominent warm nose
that suggests some freezing rain potential for a brief period in
northern sections early Tuesday, but model differences in precip
onset timing make this very uncertain (NAM being faster with the
northward spread of precip than the GFS). For now, the forecast will
mention snow or a rain/snow mix early Tuesday morning for the
mountains, SW VA/NE TN and the northern Cumberland Plateau. Overall,
the potential impact appears low at this time. Any precip with this
system ends Tuesday night.

 

I'll take a wintry mix too! This Tuesday-Wednesday system would have some better potential for NE TN and SW VA, except for the dreaded Lakes low, messing with the mid levels. But it at least looks like western areas Arkansas and NW TN will get a shot of snow again. 

 

I'm slightly interested in the Fridayish time frame. Euro and GFS show a jet streak and broad vorticity advection, but at this time there's nothing upstream (i.e. blocking) to amplify it enough to throw precip back into our area:

 

A couple EPS members show accumulating snow for Elizabethton (using that city since it is in the far eastern part of the forum area), but several show snow falling, even if only flurries. Several GEFS members show a general 1-3" for Elizabethton too. If that were to happen, if might look something like this: 

 

EPS member 49:

To be fair that is only one member, but it is an early one this year, and I think even though it isn't likely, it is plausible, given what happened with this system that's coming through today:

The above is a 16 frame gif of the trend of the GFS for 18z today. You can tell the mid-upper level pattern isn't changing too much overt he 16 runs (maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I read the thickness lines on the map), but as we get closer to verification, the model is like "oh, maybe there will be some precip. there and, oh yeah, we'll move it a little bit NW too." 

it's not like it's that unusual for precip to make it back a little further NW that models show, but ever situation is unique and this could be a whole lot of nothing. 

Webb also thinks there's a shot, (at least for western NC and S. VA) so something to keep an eye on as a warm up for the season:

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I guess I should have looked at the 0z GFS before I went through all that above lol:

 

[Knoxtron]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The NAM has definitely trying to honk on a flurry or two for me. Are you atop a mt. down near Soddy-Daisy @Knoxtron? I would be down for what the NAM is selling. 

 

Yeah, wife and I moved from Knoxville to the Plateau just outside Soddy-Daisy at an elevation of 2100', really hoping we see a little more snow than we did in Knoxville!  Being up in the clouds is a new experience for me, it is a very strange feeling as an avid weather watcher ha

Thanks for sharing! Gonna take some time to shake off the warm nose PTSD Sure looks like the GFS wants a warmup in about 10 days, only to be reloading the cold back our way around day 15 

 

 

Nice little wind gust and temps are finally dropping into the 40s at the moment, stayed in the mid 50s since last night.
House Weather Station

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1#

[nrgjeff]

The rain is needed. For southeast Tennessee the precipitation type question is answered by an old rock ballad. Cold November Rain by G&R.

This overcast has me feeling very pessimistic about everything. No snow this winter, haha.

[Carvers Gap]

We were in Indianapolis foe the past four days for Marching Band Nationals.  Cross country running season preceded that!  Now, it is time for a break.  
 

When we arrived the temp was 75!  Prelims were at Lucas Field and the temps outside for our walk down were hot! 
 

Two days later moderate snow was falling.  We ended up with 2-3” of the white stuff.  Nearly the same thing occurred last year.

[nrgjeff]

My favorite chart explains a lot today. Not shown, Rutgers snow cover is AN in the NH. Below we see high pressure all over Canada; hence, it's cold in the Lower 48.

Note that Siberia is already back in low pressure. That's not just Putin's approval rating. I believe we get a mild couple weeks starting around Thanksgiving.

The big question is whether this record -EPO in November (currently) foreshadows more blocking much of this winter. I'd really like to see a full cycle through both patterns. 

I thought we'd know more by Champions Classic Tuesday tomorrow. It'll have to be the Thanksgiving week basketball tournaments. 

[Met1985]

33 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

My favorite chart explains a lot today. Not shown, Rutgers snow cover is AN in the NH. Below we see high pressure all over Canada; hence, it's cold in the Lower 48.

Note that Siberia is already back in low pressure. That's not just Putin's approval rating. I believe we get a mild couple weeks starting around Thanksgiving.

The big question is whether this record -EPO in November (currently) foreshadows more blocking much of this winter. I'd really like to see a full cycle through both patterns. 

I thought we'd know more by Champions Classic Tuesday tomorrow. It'll have to be the Thanksgiving week basketball tournaments. 

I have noticed we are seeing signs that the NAO and AO are going into more blocking heading into December...

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is just flat out cold.  I didn’t think the Euro Weeklies yesterday looked warm either.  
 

(A bit rusty as I put my pattern discussion in the observation thread earlier...still, brrrr)

[Carvers Gap]

In the LR, it seems like as we lose the EPO, the NAO starts to build.  Been a while since I have seen that type of good fortune.

[Met1985]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

In the LR, it seems like as we lose the EPO, the NAO starts to build.  Been a while since I have seen that type of good fortune.

Yeah no kidding.  Looks like blocking really setting in over the top and in the NAO regions.  The Pacific doesn't look great but I think the pattern continues to evolve into something more favorable as we head into December for sure.

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah no kidding.  Looks like blocking really setting in over the top and in the NAO regions.  The Pacific doesn't look great but I think the pattern continues to evolve into something more favorable as we head into December for sure.

I saw where Cosgrove in his Sat wx update mentioned there are some similarities to  NovDec 83, 93, 95, and 13.  
 

Sorry, I should have referenced your NAO discussion above when I posted earlier.  Good find.

[Carvers Gap]

Even on the LR CFS2, the EPO and NAO never really form a couplet but they do this -> -EPO -> -NAO -> EPO over the next 6 weeks.  

[Met1985]

33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I saw where Cosgrove in his Sat wx update mentioned there are some similarities to  NovDec 83, 93, 95, and 13.  
 

Sorry, I should have referenced your NAO discussion above when I posted earlier.  Good find.

Yeah I saw that as well. This may be one of the more legitimate blocking patterns for us in a bit. Hey at least we have something to track currently and not waiting until January like last year.

[Met1985]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Even on the LR CFS2, the EPO and NAO never really form a couplet but they do this -> -EPO -> -NAO -> EPO over the next 6 weeks.  

Yeah I saw that as well. Currently a lot of good signs through the holiday season....

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I saw that as well. This may be one of the more legitimate blocking patterns for us in a bit. Hey at least we have something to track currently and not waiting until January like last year.

Man it is like someone just flip the lights off for summer.  Record highs last Monday.  Snow in the mountains over the weekend.  

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Man it is like someone just flip the lights off for summer.  Record highs last Monday.  Snow in the mountains over the weekend.  

Yeah no kidding! Literally overnight went from mid 70s to freezing cold. I had really wrote November off but boy was I wrong.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Interesting line up of convection in the western Pac:

 

The majority of the tropical convection is still in what we would call phase 4 on the MJO RMM plots, but last time I looked a few days ago the whole tropical Pac was pretty empty. Maybe we can get some of that to hang around while the MJO wave slowly percolates eastward? Might help facilitate some of that blocking y'all been talking about. 

GFS pushes it even further east to the central Pac over the next few days:

Euro does the same, but it eventually interacts with storms N. of Hawaii:

Of course it could also be too early in the season for any of this to matter, but that's all I have while we wait to see how all this evolves over the next couple of weeks. 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Gonna be fighting a crappy Pacific most of the winter.  SSTs favor a 4-6 MJO setup from what I have read.  We will have to have a -NAO to counter it.   Not optimal, but that is the way I believe.  Looks promising at least for the first third of winter.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I am not totally 100% sold on fighting a crappy Pac just yet. Now, I may be 90% sold on it, but not 100%. I want to see what happens if the MJO wave can catch up to some of the convection in the Pacific. I suspect by this time next month the tale will be told. 

Seems like around this time for the past couple of years like I notice some convection in the better parts of the Pac and then it will just fizzle out. Could be that will happen in this instance too. One of the mets in the general forecasting part if the bigger forum seemed to think there was also a chance that the dying La Nina might allow for the MJO to make it to the better phases, at least later in the winter, since it had a strong pass this last time. 

[nrgjeff]

Convection is trying to get into better (for cold) West Pac phases. However when the only Invest is in the Indian ocean, I say the muddled tie goes to the warm signal Indo Subcontinent. 

Keep in mind my job here is Devil's Advocate; so, I could be wrong. Except I'll be right in southeast Tenn.

[Daniel Boone]

I'm thinking mainly warm phases until SST'S warm further East. However, low amp may be the case, and other Drivers (east aligned Nina Ridge and HLB) may trump.