Matthew70 Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 Next weekend looks quite January ish temp wise. Then following week rain with highs in low 50’s here in mid state. Enjoy this next week. That’s the forecast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 5, 2022 Author Share Posted November 5, 2022 22 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, Euro continues to lag . Could be a bias of hanging energy back, keeping trough further west. May be in the differences in their MJO projection. Euro during shoulder season is less than accurate for sure. It seems to lack the ability to see cold shots. However, the model is still usable when it does that. Just have to see only when he warmth backs-off, and usually that is when BN temps move through. Its seasonal is very warm for winter. Even though it is biased warm and it is shoulder season, its solution is plausible. We actually have not had a "stinker" of a winter in some time west of the Apps. Generally, we have had a storm or two that drops some white stuff(Chattanooga excluded). There are, however, winters in TN where it snows very, very little at all lower elevations. We are long overdue for one of those. That said, I think we see some extreme cold at some point west of the Apps. Base-warm winter pattern though looks to be likely - QBO, solar, IO, and Pac are bearish for sustained cold after December. But who knows? Recent climo patterns don't really follow the rules the mid-late 20th century. Winter has already set-in out West and is right on time. This also fits Nina climatology. IMHO, December is our best shot, maybe early January. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 45 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Euro during shoulder season is less than accurate for sure. It seems to lack the ability to see cold shots. However, the model is still usable when it does that. Just have to see only when he warmth backs-off, and usually that is when BN temps move through. Its seasonal is very warm for winter. Even though it is biased warm and it is shoulder season, its solution is plausible. We actually have not had a "stinker" of a winter in some time west of the Apps. Generally, we have had a storm or two that drops some white stuff(Chattanooga excluded). There are, however, winters in TN where it snows very, very little at all lower elevations. We are long overdue for one of those. That said, I think we see some extreme cold at some point west of the Apps. Base-warm winter pattern though looks to be likely - QBO, solar, IO, and Pac are bearish for sustained cold after December. But who knows? Recent climo patterns don't really follow the rules the mid-late 20th century. Winter has already set-in out West and is right on time. This also fits Nina climatology. IMHO, December is our best shot, maybe early January. Excellent points Carver's . Glad you posted those. Odds do favor milder than avg. for particularly the eastern forum obviously as the Pac is a big Driver. Solar definitely not good either. As mentioned many times, and we all basically know, what we need to alter the canonical Nina Pattern is a formidable -NAO. Saw a post on MA Forum about 2 Winter's with similar aspects as this Nov. irt pattern and indexes. Analogues; 1978-79 and 85-86. Both were good Winter's snow wise here . Both featured dominant blocking. 78-79 was a record cold one for the Nation as a whole. Every continental US State was below average except for Maine and Florida ! 85-86 featured slightly below avg Temps here with above average Snowfall. Area's SE of us were above average Temperature. Incidentally, it was a third Year Nina as well. Great Analogue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 The GFS rolled out a November to remember event that run. Would be a throw back to the 1950s when we played Kentucky in deep snow at Neyland around November 20th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 Griteater has some early morning winter thoughts this AM: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 Legit snow set-up for next Thursday(16th to clarify) if the GFS at 12z today is to be believed. That window has shown up on multiple runs. Still, the GFS has shown those only to be in error - so huge grain of salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Griteater has some early morning winter thoughts this AM: If ever there was going to be an outlier(Grid references those), it is this year. Why? Climatology has been wonky for the past 4-5 years - almost doing the exact opposite of analogs at times. I believe this has to do with the temperature gradient in the Pacific being for uniform that stratified during ENSO events(reference one of the guys in New England for that...TyphoonTIp I believe). I do think the mean trough will be centered in the western Plains and Mountain West w/ intrusions into the East. This warm November is gonna flip hard to BN temps I believe. If it does that, I think the La Nina pattern is likely going to be a traditional sequence of BN/Seasonal December -> early cold shot January -> WARM February and and early end to winter. 2023-2024 I am about as bullish as one can be. -QBO, weak El Nino after 3 La Ninas, Pacific SST gradient reset after this cold episode(should accentuate the El Nino response here)....loaded for bear. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: If ever there was going to be an outlier(Grid references those), it is this year. Why? Climatology has been wonky for the past 4-5 years - almost doing the exact opposite of analogs at times. I believe this has to do with the temperature gradient in the Pacific being for uniform that stratified during ENSO events(reference one of the guys in New England for that...TyphoonTIp I believe). I do think the mean trough will be centered in the western Plains and Mountain West w/ intrusions into the East. This warm November is gonna flip hard to BN temps I believe. If it does that, I think the La Nina pattern is likely going to be a traditional sequence of BN/Seasonal December -> early cold shot January -> WARM February and and early end to winter. 2023-2024 I am about as bullish as one can be. -QBO, weak El Nino after 3 La Ninas, Pacific SST gradient reset after this cold episode(should accentuate the El Nino response here)....loaded for bear. Just dont want no freaking split of the SPV.Last few decades when we get the SSWE and it splits our winters are garbage,might be different this time if it does but lately it hasnt been. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 3 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Just dont want no freaking split of the SPV.Last few decades when we get the SSWE and it splits our winters are garbage,might be different this time if it does but lately it hasnt been. Yeah. SPVs tend to favor EurAsia. When we do get the split (and equatorial push of Arctic air) in NA, it favors the west. We have had some really good winters with the SPV and some really craptastic winters. The year with the Memphis sub-zero, multi-day snow storm...that was a good SPV split if I remember correctly. Seems like we do well with maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of splits. If we want winter to continue into Jan/Feb this year, we may need one. The positive QBO lends itself to less blocking. Nina should help early on, and hurt us later on....Right now, looks to me like we are setting up for a mid-Nov to late Dec cold shot, and then we could be done with the exception of thread-the-needle stuff. That early season cold pattern(potential...not certain) should not be related to the SPV, though admittedly I haven't looked at stratospheric stuff much at all in about 2 weeks. That thing could be on fire right now, and I wouldn't know. LOL. Then, Nina climatology should send the trough into the Mountain West during Jan/Feb - where it is now actually. So, if the SPV trough normally goes there anyway and Nina has it in the Mountain West anyway, I am for taking a 1 in 4 shot in splitting it and sending it eastward mid to late winter. Again, I think the rising QBO really argues against blocking after December. QBO should flip back to a more favorable cycle next August or so. But some winters don't behave. A third year La Nina is a total crapshoot in the meager analog packages available for that rare occurrence. You guys have had some great recent winters in middle TN. Knoxville has done OK as well. The closer one is to the Apps, the less these past Nina winters have been helpful re: snow. I think you all get one more potentially good winter before the ENSO pattern switches up to one which favors coastal tracks next winter as Nino takes hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 3 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Just dont want no freaking split of the SPV.Last few decades when we get the SSWE and it splits our winters are garbage,might be different this time if it does but lately it hasnt been. Ha! Ha! Man, you have a to tell me when you know a split is coming. I had heard rumors and just looked at the 18z GFS due to your comments. Textbook split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 Yeah, not sure I want to see a SSW and subsequent SPV/TPV split that early. Now, if one wanted a wall-to-wall cold winter...those can start that way. I don't see that happening BTW. OTH, we could see our early cold December dump westward (climo says eastward in December), and we could see DJF go warm. Man, I am kicking myself for not seeing that. The massive warm-up along the East Coast is often a pre-cursor to big SPV splits. Mega kudos to Jax for point that out. Hope you are doing well, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 So, basically the split is shown on the 18z GFS around 10-12 days out. Usually takes a couple of weeks after that IF it is going to send cold southward in the troposphere. Timing on that would be the first or second week of December if North America benefits at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 So, shoulder season modeling coupled with the randomness of SPV potential....wx modeling is likely going to struggle mightily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 6, 2022 Author Share Posted November 6, 2022 @Math/Met, that was quite the mountain wave event last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 I hadn't even looked yet at SPV stuff this early. Just looked at it this AM and yeah its getting thwacked around even this early. When was the last one we had in Nov/ Dec? At 50mb the Euro gets a good N. European ridge going in about 7 days: GFS goes on to get a pretty good split at that level through the end of its run: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 I guess it's that time again, lol. The Euro's take on the MJO is pretty classic La nina: It hits the phase 8 area and it's like, "ohhhh noo, can't go there, back to 5, 6, and 7." I do remember that when we have it hang round in 6 in high amplitude it can favor the sort of SPV split the models are showing is possible. Soon I'll have to go look at Anthony Masiello posts about Siberian night jets and other such things, lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 48 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I guess it's that time again, lol. The Euro's take on the MJO is pretty classic La nina: It hits the phase 8 area and it's like, "ohhhh noo, can't go there, back to 5, 6, and 7." I do remember that when we have it hang round in 6 in high amplitude it can favor the sort of SPV split the models are showing is possible. Soon I'll have to go look at Anthony Masiello posts about Siberian night jets and other such things, lol. We are gonna be fighting the MJO all winter the the IO and dateline SST setup. Probably going to be in the warm phases all winter as a generality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I hadn't even looked yet at SPV stuff this early. Just looked at it this AM and yeah its getting thwacked around even this early. When was the last one we had in Nov/ Dec? At 50mb the Euro gets a good N. European ridge going in about 7 days: GFS goes on to get a pretty good split at that level through the end of its run: Is there a 3-D animation of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Is there a 3-D animation of it? Yeah, I actually looked it up and was thinking about gifing it, but hadn't got around to it yet. I will later this PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 This helps explain the incoming cold pattern. High press eastern Siberia plays nicely with the AK 500 mb ridge forecast on models. Snow cover is also AN (Rutgers map not shown). Note snowcover is worthless without pressure context. Low press / high snow is stormy and mild. High press high snow sets the table for cold if it's delivered. Looking ahead, models don't keep the cold pattern long. However it bears watching. If the cold hangs in longer than a couple weeks, it could be the November preview of winter deal. Of course a quick strong mild recovery may also be a winter preview. We'll know more after the Champions Classic Novie 15th, because college basketball has all the answers, haha! 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 GFS for the 14th-16th is interesting. I-40 special . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 1 hour ago, nrgjeff said: This helps explain the incoming cold pattern. High press eastern Siberia plays nicely with the AK 500 mb ridge forecast on models. Snow cover is also AN (Rutgers map not shown). Note snowcover is worthless without pressure context. Low press / high snow is stormy and mild. High press high snow sets the table for cold if it's delivered. Looking ahead, models don't keep the cold pattern long. However it bears watching. If the cold hangs in longer than a couple weeks, it could be the November preview of winter deal. Of course a quick strong mild recovery may also be a winter preview. We'll know more after the Champions Classic Novie 15th, because college basketball has all the answers, haha! Great post ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 3 hours ago, nrgjeff said: This helps explain the incoming cold pattern. High press eastern Siberia plays nicely with the AK 500 mb ridge forecast on models. Snow cover is also AN (Rutgers map not shown). Note snowcover is worthless without pressure context. Low press / high snow is stormy and mild. High press high snow sets the table for cold if it's delivered. Looking ahead, models don't keep the cold pattern long. However it bears watching. If the cold hangs in longer than a couple weeks, it could be the November preview of winter deal. Of course a quick strong mild recovery may also be a winter preview. We'll know more after the Champions Classic Novie 15th, because college basketball has all the answers, haha! Thanks Jeff for this. Great analysis as always. I do think we may actually see more of a pronounced pattern change in December but this is a warning shot. I could be wrong though... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: We are gonna be fighting the MJO all winter the the IO and dateline SST setup. Probably going to be in the warm phases all winter as a generality. Sure looks that way. Best we can hope for is it stays rather low amp in the warm phases but, that's not too likely. Hopefully another Driver can knock things off kilter. There are a couple things that have a chance but odds are stacked against them being dominant for any sustainability. The rising QBO is a big concern imo . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Yeah, I actually looked it up and was thinking about gifing it, but hadn't got around to it yet. I will later this PM. Saw it on Twitter. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 7, 2022 Author Share Posted November 7, 2022 The 12z GFS does not have a long term, strat split. BUT, the strat is on fire even as it reconsolidates. There is an equatorial displacement of cold air d10-15 on the GFS. Is it right? I don't know. Looks like two stout, cold air masses are depicted on it. At this point, that looks like our first winter-storm window. Yeah, I know it is November. That said, that pattern is ripe for a storm -> cold, GOM open for business. Likely will be more of a cutter, but if one of those 1040+ highs presses south it will displace the storm track southward in response. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 10 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Is there a 3-D animation of it? Here ya go: source for those interested: https://stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d It usually refreshes once a day with 0z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 18z GFS is much excite: 7 days isn't too bantry. ? Let's just add that the Euro looks a smidge different for that time frame. Might even dig out the old ensembles tomorrow AM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 8, 2022 Author Share Posted November 8, 2022 4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Here ya go: source for those interested: https://stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d It usually refreshes once a day with 0z GFS Looks to me like only the tropospheric is displaced. Pretty solid consolidation up top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Not sure if right thread but we know the MS river is very low & dry. Now we have the fire dangers starting. This is near Rockwood off I40 tonight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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