Save the itchy algae! Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 The gfs has been consistently showing a tropical signature the end of Halloween week. Given it’s placement and climatology I wouldn’t be surprised to see some unusual weather in the nov 7-10th range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 26, 2022 Author Share Posted October 26, 2022 We need a tropical/hybrid to break-up a potentially monotonous pattern showing for early-mid November. Big ridge building on most modeling, and might be quite tough to move once in place. My guess is that the pattern will flip on a dime as most Nina patterns flip quite quickly to winter. Anyway, summer-ish(early fall) like pattern showing for the first part of November. The pattern looks a lot like a standing wave(ridge) over the East. It gets knocked down but keeps most of the nation east of the Mississippi 5-20+ degrees above normal. The Euro control has some areas 30+ AN. I thought we might have dodged extended summer which is common with La Nina. This will be "extended summer", but without the ultra hot temps. We have had a nice Fall so far....warmer temps are back and are going to make an attempt to hang on. Bigger issue is the quickly developing drought in conjunction with warmer-temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 Yeah I’m just going to hold off with my thoughts for a while, things were looking good until I opened my mouth then next thing you know everything went poof. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 Yes it's a warm look. Sea level press anomalies 7-day mean. Instead of ridging in Siberia and Canada, low press locks cold North. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 26, 2022 Author Share Posted October 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Save the itchy algae! said: Yeah I’m just going to hold off with my thoughts for a while, things were looking good until I opened my mouth then next thing you know everything went poof. Nah....I take full credit for the massive warm flip in modeling. Just dig back a few posts and you will see the culprit post around Oct 10th. Hot take on my part!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 We had a similar stretch in November 2020, about 7 or 8 days of +15 to +20 weather. The month was +3 to +5 across the area after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 26, 2022 Author Share Posted October 26, 2022 FTR, I do think we see a sharp switch to cold sometime in early to mid December to a cold pattern. I think this warm wx is a a 4-6 week pattern which is just beginning. Maybe the one positive to warm wx during November is that it may help with having colder wx over the holidays. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 26, 2022 Author Share Posted October 26, 2022 Just glancing at some super LR modeling, looks this indeed(the warmer weather) is a new pattern which (if you know me) I use a general duration rule of about 4-6 weeks(usually 6 weeks is my rule of thumb). Since this will begin around Nov 1, that would put the next pattern change around mid-December. Now, a pattern change could just be another warm pattern of a new variety OR a pattern which is only slightly AN OR one which is well BN. That would mean the heart of winter has a chance to be cold (mid-Dec to end of Jan) - I lean towards that. Only drawback is one cold spell during winter instead of two. Bookends of DJF would be likely warm. It is what it is. I would be difficult to find a more hostile Pacific in the LR. The only way I see us having a cold winter is if the blocking occurs in the NAO region. Though, I will ride with the idea that we will see 1-2 extreme cold shots, especially Plateau west, as that fits Nina climatology. Hopes for an early start to winter are dimming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Just glancing at some super LR modeling, looks this indeed(the warmer weather) is a new pattern which (if you know me) I use a general duration rule of about 4-6 weeks(usually 6 weeks is my rule of thumb). Since this will begin around Nov 1, that would put the next pattern change around mid-December. Now, a pattern change could just be another warm pattern of a new variety OR a pattern which is only slightly AN OR one which is well BN. That would mean the heart of winter has a chance to be cold (mid-Dec to end of Jan) - I lean towards that. Only drawback is one cold spell during winter instead of two. Bookends of DJF would be likely warm. It is what it is. I would be difficult to find a more hostile Pacific in the LR. The only way I see us having a cold winter is if the blocking occurs in the NAO region. Though, I will ride with the idea that we will see 1-2 extreme cold shots, especially Plateau west, as that fits Nina climatology. Hopes for an early start to winter are dimming. After being AN for November 2020, it had a cool shot or two but didn't flip until after a +10 to +12 stretch mid-month. Then it went BN and led into the white Christmas. Stayed pretty cold for about 8 weeks here. Less so further east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 27, 2022 Author Share Posted October 27, 2022 2 hours ago, John1122 said: After being AN for November 2020, it had a cool shot or two but didn't flip until after a +10 to +12 stretch mid-month. Then it went BN and led into the white Christmas. Stayed pretty cold for about 8 weeks here. Less so further east. Yeah, seems like something similar might be on the table.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 21 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Just glancing at some super LR modeling, looks this indeed(the warmer weather) is a new pattern which (if you know me) I use a general duration rule of about 4-6 weeks(usually 6 weeks is my rule of thumb). Since this will begin around Nov 1, that would put the next pattern change around mid-December. Now, a pattern change could just be another warm pattern of a new variety OR a pattern which is only slightly AN OR one which is well BN. That would mean the heart of winter has a chance to be cold (mid-Dec to end of Jan) - I lean towards that. Only drawback is one cold spell during winter instead of two. Bookends of DJF would be likely warm. It is what it is. I would be difficult to find a more hostile Pacific in the LR. The only way I see us having a cold winter is if the blocking occurs in the NAO region. Though, I will ride with the idea that we will see 1-2 extreme cold shots, especially Plateau west, as that fits Nina climatology. Hopes for an early start to winter are dimming. My hopes have been on the warm west coast and nepac SST'S and a neg. NAO. to throw Nina off kilter. However, current progged pattern may cool those waters in pac thereby hurting that help. Some areas in the urals/Scandinavian and natlantic are looking more favorable for -NAO. So, guess we root for that along with PV disruptions . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 7 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: My hopes have been on the warm west coast and nepac SST'S and a neg. NAO. to throw Nina off kilter. However, current progged pattern may cool those waters in pac thereby hurting that help. Some areas in the urals/Scandinavian and natlantic are looking more favorable for -NAO. So, guess we root for that along with PV disruptions . The 18z GFS is the way to a good pattern. Almost need a tropical system to jet up the coast and buckle the jet along the EC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 CFS v2 18z is seeing a similar trough amplification after Nov10th. Is that the opening shot for winter? Maybe. Long way to go. I really think one good amplification would pop the ridge in the West and put the trough in the East. Ensembles aren't biting yet. That said, and I thought about this yesterday, shoulder season LR modeling is full of false alarms(both warm cold) during past years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS is the way to a good pattern. Almost need a tropical system to jet up the coast and buckle the jet along the EC. Yeah, saw that. Sure could use a tc in more ways than one. Drought getting serious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: CFS v2 18z is seeing a similar trough amplification after Nov10th. Is that the opening shot for winter? Maybe. Long way to go. I really think one good amplification would pop the ridge in the West and put the trough in the East. Ensembles aren't biting yet. That said, and I thought about this yesterday, shoulder season LR modeling is full of false alarms(both warm cold) during past years. Agreed. Still some advertised PV stretching upcoming of which looks to aid into an Eastern trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 On 10/26/2022 at 2:21 PM, Carvers Gap said: Nah....I take full credit for the massive warm flip in modeling. Just dig back a few posts and you will see the culprit post around Oct 10th. Hot take on my part!!! I wasn't going to say anything............. lol Hope everyone has been doing well. Looking forward to the changing seasons. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 UK Met Office just went cooler than normal UK through Jan. However they do not forecast for mainland Europe and certainly not North America. Still, their NAO forecast plays a big role, so... For EU energy security I hope Europe is mild, but we can't control any of that. US is fine either way. Yes I believe SER will be the dominant weather pattern in La Nina. However a colder secondary pattern is likely, maybe stout once or twice, esp Mid South. Nina is variable and the NAO may get negative at times. Check of my favorite 7-day mean surface pressure anomaly echos my mixed sentiment. For the most part cold and stormy is locked up Arctic. No big Arctic highs. However some is spilling into China and North America. Press chart with temperature colors.. Bonus. Australia is colder than normal with that South Pole block from hell. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 2, 2022 Author Share Posted November 2, 2022 The 18z GFS is flirting with greatness. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 2, 2022 Author Share Posted November 2, 2022 Now, let me explain. There is a tropical system approaching the coast around d8-10. If it gets caught in a front racing eastward, we get the KOD(kiss of death) early season winter storm that models have been trying to cook-up for weeks. Something to keep an eye on...but the 18z GFS is almost exactly how that might occur. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Honestly, mid November and beyond isn't super early season for the area. We've had some big snow and arctic cold in the November 15th time frame. That said the GFS has been pretty consistent with a big cool down coming around the 10th-14th time frame. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 I feel like these troughs over the next week are really trying to swing though, but the little tropical critter off the SE coast is causing them to glance off to the north. Like John said, the GFS long range has certainly been consistent the past few runs with pulling a bigger trough through mid month once that tropical system gets out of the way. We didn't snow on Halloween this year, so I'll check that in the win box for hopeful winter signs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 2, 2022 Author Share Posted November 2, 2022 The GFS is really banging the drum at 6z. Cosgrove on Facebook is mentioning a cold weather intrusion. There Holy Grail of November wx (for me) is a hybrid tropical system that gets entrained in legit cold front. Outside chance of that right now. That said, the GFS has been in error w/ that look at LR for about 2-3 weeks. However, that looks is now at d8-10. We know the euro struggles during shoulder season. At the very least, the GFS is now leaning towards a cold shot late next weekend. Weather is just a wee bit more interesting than it was a few days ago... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I feel like these troughs over the next week are really trying to swing though, but the little tropical critter off the SE coast is causing them to glance off to the north. Like John said, the GFS long range has certainly been consistent the past few runs with pulling a bigger trough through mid month once that tropical system gets out of the way. We didn't snow on Halloween this year, so I'll check that in the win box for hopeful winter signs. Exactly what I've been thinking too. That pest is definitely blocking the flow as it's creating confluence n and nw of it. Providing things line up upstream, once that thing's outa the way, we may be in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 2, 2022 Author Share Posted November 2, 2022 Strong cold signal showing up on the 12z GEFS after mid-month. The Euro Weeklies had this to some extent on Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Strong cold signal showing up on the 12z GEFS after mid-month. The Euro Weeklies had this to some extent on Monday. Yeah, if we can continue to get these PV disruptions it may make for an interesting Winter regardless of enso and PDO state. The 60's Decade comes to mind. A decent amount of La nina -PDO Year's in there. They did fluctuate temp wise as you had the mild dry periods but, some healthy cold snowy one's as well. Blocking was a mainstay during those Winter's. I don't know what the catalyst was ; quite possibly PV disruptions played a role. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Please do not share the first image because it is a subscription. Does it look so familiar around here? Cold is coming, but could be very modulated into the shallow SER. Too early in the season to undercut. My favorite pressure chart is mixed signals; so of course, I'm bearish East Tenn. Maybe the Mid-South? I'm not sure if winter or severe, lol! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 hour ago, nrgjeff said: Please do not share the first image because it is a subscription. Does it look so familiar around here? Cold is coming, but could be very modulated into the shallow SER. Too early in the season to undercut. My favorite pressure chart is mixed signals; so of course, I'm bearish East Tenn. Maybe the Mid-South? I'm not sure if winter or severe, lol! Yeah you can see on the extended model run that the SER is bouncing the fronts to the north already with a shit PAC.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Yeah you can see on the extended model run that the SER is bouncing the fronts to the north already with a shit PAC.... If strong blocking can setup, it'll squash that thing enough to put at least Northern area's in the game for frozen precip regardless of the PAC setup. Also, would bring much h needed rain to the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 4, 2022 Author Share Posted November 4, 2022 The GFS and CMC are MUCH colder for next Saturday, and have a crazy hybrid system embedded. Let's see if that flip to cold holds at 12z. Major changes overnight on those two models. Euro isn't buying it quite yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Yeah, Euro continues to lag . Could be a bias of hanging energy back, keeping trough further west. May be in the differences in their MJO projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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