John1122 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Looks like most of us are barely going to get anything from Ian at this point and the 16 day forecast is dry as well. Unfortunate as we head into fire season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 hour ago, John1122 said: Looks like most of us are barely going to get anything from Ian at this point and the 16 day forecast is dry as well. Unfortunate as we head into fire season. Yeah, depressing. I was concerned it may shift east. Should of figured with that boundary sitting off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 It’s getting extremely dry going into a season of leaves falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 If I'm not mistaken cool and dry conditions once in October are considered ideal for fall foliage. Display wise we may all be in for a treat. So long as those reds oranges and yellows aren't flames. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 17 hours ago, BlunderStorm said: If I'm not mistaken cool and dry conditions once in October are considered ideal for fall foliage. Display wise we may all be in for a treat. So long as those reds oranges and yellows aren't flames. Yeah, considering if it's not hot with it and if September wasn't dry. My location was received about half the average for September so, hopefully won't affect them too much. Although,It has some as some leaves are brown, particularly on edges. Maples are coloring up good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 3, 2022 Author Share Posted October 3, 2022 Some signs that a fairly stout(but is it long lasting?) PNA ridge is about to form with and ensuing downstream eastern trough later this month. Still a bit early for the early winter La Nina climatology to kick-in, so we'll see. It is showing up on ensembles pretty consistently and starting to show somewhat sporadically on operational runs. But it looks "not warm." Trough is also in the Aleutians which tele connects well to cold here. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 The wx temp wise has been perfect. Only thing wrong is only a little over half inch of rain since Sept. 1st here. That is trouble leading into the season of leaves falling. Add in the much lower humidity with cooler temps. From wet to dry just like shutting off a valve. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 3, 2022 Author Share Posted October 3, 2022 3 hours ago, Matthew70 said: The wx temp wise has been perfect. Only thing wrong is only a little over half inch of rain since Sept. 1st here. That is trouble leading into the season of leaves falling. Add in the much lower humidity with cooler temps. From wet to dry just like shutting off a valve. We were in Clarksville Saturday more middle school state XC championships. Pretty amazing how dry it is there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 5, 2022 Author Share Posted October 5, 2022 Gonna have to read my comment today in the Winter Spec Thread for this to make sense. The hybrid coastal/inland snow set-up is clearly apparent on the 18z GFS late. No idea if that verifies, but the potential is there. It is not unprecedented. I remember @tnweathernuthaving to trudge through snow to get to the South Carolina game one year....snow in South Carolina!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 8, 2022 Author Share Posted October 8, 2022 Kind of crazy, but there is a winter wx set-up in the day 7-10 time frame. Climatology says otherwise, but still..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Pain I want more Summer 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 4 hours ago, MattPetrulli said: Pain I want more Summer Yeah, Models continue to advertise that fairly consistently. Reminds me of October '89 somewhat. Snowshowers all day the 20th with off and on dustings at my home in Pennington gap then. That November and December was cold. December record cold. Pattern flipped very last day of that Month to cold west/warm east for rest of Winter followed by a cold Spring, particularly April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 10, 2022 Author Share Posted October 10, 2022 Looks like a temporary trough amplification in the East, a transient(maybe 5-10 ridge out West), and then a more permanent trough in the East for November if the "shoulder season" Euro Weeklies are accurate. You all know the rules on that. That pattern would bring early snows to the mountains and snow showers to the valleys. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 42 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Looks like a temporary trough amplification in the East, a transient(maybe 5-10 ridge out West), and then a more permanent trough in the East for November if the "shoulder season" Euro Weeklies are accurate. You all know the rules on that. That pattern would bring early snows to the mountains and snow showers to the valleys. Yeah so far from the end of September through current the pattern has been remarkable. Reminds me of the patterns some 15 to 20 years ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Yeah so far from the end of September through current the pattern has been remarkable. Reminds me of the patterns some 15 to 20 years ago. Yeah, it sure does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Quite a run of the GFS in about 10 days. Eastern Kentucky paste bomb. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 12, 2022 Author Share Posted October 12, 2022 Very familiar pattern on the LR GFS w/ a Hudson Bay Block but crappy Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 First frost of the year may come in the next week or so. Gonna be some chilly nights next week by the looks of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Very familiar pattern on the LR GFS w/ a Hudson Bay Block but crappy Pacific. Yeah, a -PNA pattern looking pretty likely to setup for a while. Hopefully Pattern will revert back to dominant+PNA in November and we can get blocking in conjunction. May wind up with a 10-11 type Nina Winter. No big Snows but cold with quite a bit of nickle and dime events. Had a month solid of snow cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 Looks like a warm 11-15 day period to close out October. November is very up in the air with competing influences. I'll get serious about a winter outlook in early November. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 14, 2022 Author Share Posted October 14, 2022 On 10/12/2022 at 10:18 PM, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, a -PNA pattern looking pretty likely to setup for a while. Hopefully Pattern will revert back to dominant+PNA in November and we can get blocking in conjunction. May wind up with a 10-11 type Nina Winter. No big Snows but cold with quite a bit of nickle and dime events. Had a month solid of snow cover. Last night's Weeklies and 12z GEFS seem to signal just a temporary crappy Pacific set-up (TCPSu) vs (PCPSu...permanently crappy Pacific). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Last night's Weeklies and 12z GEFS seem to signal just a temporary crappy Pacific set-up (TCPSu) vs (PCPSu...permanently crappy Pacific). Yeah, sure hope they're right Buddy. Always worrisome to get a -PNA during a Nina however. Sometimes hard to dislodge, particularly if that Nina enhanced PAC Ridge sets up strong. If we can have a +PNA in place as the -NAO is still going, could be some early snows for sure. Actually, yesterday's EPS was contrary to the Op Euro irt ridge east/trough west . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 GFS keeps trying to brew something up around Halloween. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 18, 2022 Author Share Posted October 18, 2022 2 hours ago, John1122 said: GFS keeps trying to brew something up around Halloween. Fits our climatology fairly well. Seems like we have seen our first snow storm around halloween about 1/5 years. When I was a kid in Knoxville, that was unheard of. However, of late, early season storms have not been uncommon for the mountains. The GFS has been sniffing something out during that time frame for several days. It will be interesting to see if other modeling picks it up as it sits at 240h right now. I bet if we look back, the GFS might have had this from the word "go." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 18, 2022 Author Share Posted October 18, 2022 Yep, indeed the GFS has had it between hour 330-348. As maligned as the model is sometimes(and rightfully so), it has an uncanny ability to catch some major events at wicked long ranges. Strat splits come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 18, 2022 Author Share Posted October 18, 2022 @John1122, the 12z GFS has it yet again (different variation). That is a pretty potent set-up if it grabs energy out of the GOM at this time of the year. BTW, the GFS did pretty well with today's cold/snow at very LR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 Winter weather at Halloween is becoming a tradition, esp if you count cold rain. However Chatty had flurries one recent Halloween. I prefer severe wx but whatever. Actually if some things come together right early next week, but they won't. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 I seem to recall snow around this time of year in 1995 but it was during the evening/overnight rather than during daylight hours. End of October/early November it's much more common. In 2014 we had a few inches Halloween night into November 1st. 1993 we had 3 inches on Halloween afternoon into early evening. We got snow from Sandy in 2013 on the 23rd I believe. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 7 hours ago, John1122 said: I seem to recall snow around this time of year in 1995 but it was during the evening/overnight rather than during daylight hours. End of October/early November it's much more common. In 2014 we had a few inches Halloween night into November 1st. 1993 we had 3 inches on Halloween afternoon into early evening. We got snow from Sandy in 2013 on the 23rd I believe. Yeah, the 25th in 1995 it sleeted and snow showered that afternoon. We had 2" Halloween '93 and 2" next morning. It snowed all day on Halloween but much of it didn't stick. Had it all stuck there'd been a couple inches more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 22, 2022 Share Posted October 22, 2022 I'll take my chances with this outlook all day. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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