Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 98L is the rare 10% invest. I think high ends is a weak TS, a TD would help South Texas which is in dangerous drought and which will likely see wildfires. SHIPS 25 knots seems about right unless it starts further East. (SHIPS before landfall, post landfall, not land SHIPS was 27 knots... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 12, 2022 Author Share Posted August 12, 2022 Subtle differences between GEFS, Canadian ensembles and ECENS that are incredibly subtle to anyone, but difference between Matagorda or Padre Island is big for my lawn. Dark sky, storm SW of us drifting SW has an anvil blowing slowly NE, or cyclonic flow under a weak anticyclone. Satellite/radar confirms the sensible weather of a storm moving away but anvil being pushed towards us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 13, 2022 Author Share Posted August 13, 2022 If @forkyforkwas in either a severe or extreme or exceptional drought, he'd welcome a nothing burger TD or minimum TS. The rain even from a non-tropical system that tried and failed to be a TC is going to be a good thing. Not Metfan/Ant weenie, but I am on the Weenie Spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 13, 2022 Author Share Posted August 13, 2022 Fjords and pining. Last post on a thread only I ever posted on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 4 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Fjords and pining. Last post on a thread only I ever posted on? Nothing really to write home about yet. Hope you’re able to get some meaningful rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 13, 2022 Author Share Posted August 13, 2022 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Nothing really to write home about yet. Hope you’re able to get some meaningful rain. 98L finally has convection over the LLC although most of the storms are E of there. It could have made it to a TS if it had an extrea 12-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 98L finally has convection over the LLC although most of the storms are E of there. It could have made it to a TS if it had an extrea 12-24 hours. Hopefully we can get a little more organization for rainfall purposes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 Starting to look very good on radar. Odds are up this gets a name I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 GFS does try to get this to at least a TD before land, but the low needs some more convective organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 The vort max ESE of Brownsville might be the one to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 13, 2022 Author Share Posted August 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, Normandy said: The vort max ESE of Brownsville might be the one to watch That is why another day it could have been a contender. It is almost common for competing centers delaying organization, Dorian was a nothing burger helped by land organization, a separate dominant MLC and LLC, and just a fairly small volcanic island killing the existing primary LLC allowing the dominant MLC to develop the primary LLC and cut a day or three of mini-Fujiwara of competing centers rotating around a mean center until one wins. Joe Bastardi, in the day, probably now, pigs fighting at the trough. Or something like that. ~5 years since PPV WxBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 I bet everybody over there can "feel" the air move over them as a part of a huge thing, even if it is weak. I so LOVE that feeling, being a tiny tiny speck in a system going round and round. Cold fronts are OK, a wave coming through. But tropical systems are special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 13, 2022 Author Share Posted August 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, Prospero said: I bet everybody over there can "feel" the air move over them as a part of a huge thing, even if it is weak. I so LOVE that feeling, being a tiny tiny speck in a system going round and round. Cold fronts are OK, a wave coming through. But tropical systems are special. Less breezy in Houston than Lafayette was on the periphery of Georges some year in the 20th Century, but the bit less humid feel (Northeast winds at 1 pm are now SE at 6 pm as the low has moved past our longitude) and fair weather cu moving briskly, yeah, I feel it. Already losing that just a few hours post NE winds... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 14, 2022 Author Share Posted August 14, 2022 Unofficial TD May get reviewed post season, depending, probably, whether NHC has their @ldub23 3/0/0 season or there are landfalling majors, (more than one if the storms don't run over reduced OHC from a prior major) in October. This is a cyclone that might be interesting as a compare and contrast to Humberto, but was a drought relieving (not curing) nothing burger, if the post season review season isn't too busy. I know they do post-season tropical storm upgrades, they may just not do post-season TD analysis on something not already numbered. )hanks to the pro-met who seems to exist only as a troll weenie tagged me for what had a 35 knot ceiling which I clearly mentioned original post. If hoping for rain is 'Weenie', maybe. I am a weenie, if you are on this board only for OT and politics forum, maybe you aren't. But you aren't reading this unless you're mentioned and someone tells you... The pro-mets (one pro-met here, and JB excluded) started as weenies, still like Cat 5s if they miss land, but keep it real as a professional obligation. JB and a forum degreed met in Florida have trouble not seeing the outlier solutions are unlikely for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 With this morning’s convective burst and organization, no doubt it would have developed with more time. Waited too long to get its act together, a hallmark of the 2022 season thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Methinks 98L became a TD while moving onshore and we d likely still a TD. Great radar/sat presentation atm. Also, saw one buoy report with winds around 30-32 and gusts over 40. If this had a full day over the southern GOM with this structure…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Looks like some decent rain. Hope it helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 Another day over water and this would have been Danielle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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