Invest 97L--10% 2-Day/10% 5-Day Development Odds

[WxWatcher007]

We have an invest with the strong tropical wave that left the coast of Africa this weekend. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far 
eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde islands is
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear 
generally conducive for gradual development of this system while it 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the 
eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression 
could form around the middle to latter part of this week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin

 

The GFS is most aggressive with development so far, while the other operational guidance have nothing noteworthy and a modest ensemble signal for development. As is usually the case with these early systems, there's high uncertainty 10 days out let alone 5. That means the long range weenie or totally dead runs are pretty meaningless. 

It is convectively active, but we'll need to see if there's any meaningful organization taking place in the next few days. 

 

[SnoSki14]

Right on schedule we're seeing development as we clear 1st week of August. 

Climo is undefeated 

[WxWatcher007]

A generally conducive environment, as the NHC said, but not a slam dunk right now if this muddles its way to the central Atlantic.

[Floydbuster]

06Z GFS has it scraping Cape Hatteras and making landfall near Martha's Vineyard on August 23rd as a powerful hurricane. 12Z is rolling out now. 

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

06Z GFS has it scraping Cape Hatteras and making landfall near Martha's Vineyard on August 23rd as a powerful hurricane. 12Z is rolling out now. 

Much different depiction at 12z but I’ll tell ya, I think this is a more likely long tracker to watch if it remains weak early and fails to gain latitude while that trough lifts out next week. Too strong too soon and Early, but just a thought that could be wrong lol. 

[WxWatcher007]

Looking pretty disorganized this morning. 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more limited associated 
with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands. While some gradual development of this 
system is possible over the next couple of days, environmental 
conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend. 
This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 
to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[WxWatcher007]

It’s become a broken record at this point, but the Atlantic is just too hostile right now. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s become a broken record at this point, but the Atlantic is just too hostile right now. 

Clock is ticking louder each day. Season really looking like a total dud. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Clock is ticking louder each day. Season really looking like a total dud. Hopefully I'm wrong.

 Although the writing is on the wall and the chances for hyper are steadily dropping (I never expected hyper), it is still too early imho to say with confidence it will end up a "total dud". Keep in mind that the very active seasons of 1996, 1998, and 1999 (ACE 166-182) didn't have their first August NS til the 18th or 19th. Actually, 1998 and 1999 both had only their 2nd NS 8/18-19 whereas 2022 has already had three. Also, 1992 didn't have Andrew til August 16th!

[Floydbuster]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Although the writing is on the wall and the chances for hyper are steadily dropping (I never expected hyper), it is still too early imho to say with confidence it will end up a "total dud". Keep in mind that the very active seasons of 1996, 1998, and 1999 (ACE 166-182) didn't have their first August NS til the 18th or 19th. Actually, 1998 and 1999 both had only their 2nd NS 8/18-19 whereas 2022 has already had three. Also, 1992 didn't have Andrew til August 16th!

This is true, and I have often wondered "when will that happen again" when we don't see anything until August. Last time it happened in a memorable year was 2004. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[TheDreamTraveler]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

This is true, and I have often wondered "when will that happen again" when we don't see anything until August. Last time it happened in a memorable year was 2004. 

Dorian was basically the next Andrew until it miraculously stalled at the last second and turned due north. I still can't believe that happened like that. Plus considering this is a La Nina year yet again I would expect it to at least not be a dud season

[Floydbuster]

15 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Dorian was basically the next Andrew until it miraculously stalled at the last second and turned due north. I still can't believe that happened like that. Plus considering this is a La Nina year yet again I would expect it to at least not be a dud season

Nah it's not gonna be a dud season. Alot of these youngsters have been spoiled by 20 named storm swirls by July 15th.

I'm an old timer. (compared to them) I remember tracking the 2nd named storms "Bonnie" and "Bret" in '98 and '99 and they were still weeks away from where we are now. Plus, just 24 hrs ago, the GFS was showing a hurricane scraping the East Coast and then another hurricane headed for the Lesser Antilles. Yeah it dropped it, but still a sign of things to come.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Nah it's not gonna be a dud season. Alot of these youngsters have been spoiled by 20 named storm swirls by July 15th.

I'm an old timer. (compared to them) I remember tracking the 2nd named storms "Bonnie" and "Bret" in '98 and '99 and they were still weeks away from where we are now. Plus, just 24 hrs ago, the GFS was showing a hurricane scraping the East Coast and then another hurricane headed for the Lesser Antilles. Yeah it dropped it, but still a sign of things to come.

Though I fully agree, the fact that many preseason forecasts called for 20+ storms is why many had that expectation this year. There will assuredly be impactful systems but some of the hype going into this season was more than normal from a numbers perspective, right or wrong. Also- we don’t even have the named swirls to debate this year. It’s just been dead

[StantonParkHoya]

We can say we’re at 3 storms already, but that “cloudy swirl” off the SC coast in July should not have been classified.

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Though I fully agree, the fact that many preseason forecasts called for 20+ storms is why many had that expectation this year. There will assuredly be impactful systems but some of the hype going into this season was more than normal from a numbers perspective, right or wrong. Also- we don’t even have the named swirls to debate this year. It’s just been dead

I think I went something like 21/10/5.  

It’ll be hard to get 18 more NS, but the other two are doable. Given the western Atlantic. Need October to make up for a dead first 1/3 - 2/3 of August though. 

[StantonParkHoya]

53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think I went something like 21/10/5.  

It’ll be hard to get 18 more NS, but the other two are doable. Given the western Atlantic. Need October to make up for a dead first 1/3 - 2/3 of August though. 

Problem is La Niña loves a train of autumn cold fronts