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August Discobs 2022


George BM
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25 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I know a lot of the forum has had a lot, and even too much rain, but I think I can speak for the northern areas that we need it. 

It's dry here. I lucked out Thursday a week ago with a bit over 3", but as I did stage one of the reseeding project today, the soil is parched. Like it hasn't rained in weeks. It was so powdery I had to hit it with the hose for a bit so it had some consistency as I loosened it up.

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34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's dry here. I lucked out Thursday a week ago with a bit over 3", but as I did stage one of the reseeding project today, the soil is parched. Like it hasn't rained in weeks. It was so powdery I had to hit it with the hose for a bit so it had some consistency as I loosened it up.

I’d like to get an early start on aerating and seeding this year, but I can’t get good plugs from aerating until the ground is good and wet. 

it’s not a big deal if I have to wait, but I have a few biggish projects this fall, so earlier is better.

Regardless, its a beautiful evening with cool temps, low dews, and plenty of whiskey.

Cheers! :drunk:

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Everything is out of whack with the setup for this one to produce rain in our region.

Nice writeup from Mount Holly-

Sunday morning`s 12Z sounding from Upton, NY had a PWAT value of 0.70" approaching the 10th percentile value for August 14th of 0.67". The 12Z sounding from Sterling, VA was relatively closer to normal for August 14th, 1.10" as compared to a median value of 1.27". The difference between these two soundings help depict the gradient of moisture that exists across the region, with slightly below normal values further south towards Delmarva and well below normal values further north towards northern New Jersey.

This overall lack of moisture is a key factor in the near term forecast. A short wave embedded in an upper-level trough will move through the region Sunday night into Monday. While PVA associated with this wave will increase forcing, the moisture advection with this wave will not be sufficient to overcome the amount of dry air currently in place. An increase in cloud coverage is expected overnight associated with the increase in instability but the dry air will prevent precipitation from occurring through much of the earlier hours on Monday.

With the initial short wave offshore, the upper-level trough will dig further south resulting in largely easterly onshore flow at the surface. While a relative increase in surface moisture can be expected with the onshore flow, PVA will be forced further south by the trough and the best forcing will be further south along with it. The decrease in forcing combined with continued dry air in the lower levels above the surface has led to further decreased rain chances for Monday. Chance PoPs remain in the areas most likely to receive precipitation (Delmarva and the Lehigh Valley) but may need to be reduced further given the drier trend.

For Tuesday, the surface low will push offshore and make a turn to the north, sliding up the coast. In the mid-levels, a 500 mb low will close off during the day on Tuesday across Pennsylvania. Previous runs of the GFS had been trying to pull the surface low closer to shore and strengthen it more than other guidance. However, the 14/12z deterministic and its ensembles have reverted back in line with the ECMWF and Canadian favoring a path further offshore, albeit still a bit deeper of a low. With consensus now keeping the track of the low offshore again, precipitation chances are subsequently decreasing and becoming more confined to the Jersey shore and southern parts of Delaware. In addition, the closed 500 mb low positioning is also likely acting to reduce precipitation amounts with the core of the low progged to sit over top of us. This will act to limit large scale ascent as vorticity rounds the base of the trough off to our south and east.

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