CAPE Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 I know a lot of the forum has had a lot, and even too much rain, but I think I can speak for the northern areas that we need it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 25 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I know a lot of the forum has had a lot, and even too much rain, but I think I can speak for the northern areas that we need it. It's dry here. I lucked out Thursday a week ago with a bit over 3", but as I did stage one of the reseeding project today, the soil is parched. Like it hasn't rained in weeks. It was so powdery I had to hit it with the hose for a bit so it had some consistency as I loosened it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 34 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's dry here. I lucked out Thursday a week ago with a bit over 3", but as I did stage one of the reseeding project today, the soil is parched. Like it hasn't rained in weeks. It was so powdery I had to hit it with the hose for a bit so it had some consistency as I loosened it up. I’d like to get an early start on aerating and seeding this year, but I can’t get good plugs from aerating until the ground is good and wet. it’s not a big deal if I have to wait, but I have a few biggish projects this fall, so earlier is better. Regardless, its a beautiful evening with cool temps, low dews, and plenty of whiskey. Cheers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: GFS holding strong though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 What a spectacular day! Currently 70/61dp. Trimmed our yard for 2 hours, cut the grass for another hour, then installed a new tranny mount in my 91 Silverado with the garage door open and AC turned off. Sheer bliss! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 80 at 7 and 70 at 8. The wonders of afternoon 25-30% rh in August around DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Not as cool this morning but still refreshing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Low of 54 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Beautiful morning….cut my lawn…best it has looked in my entire lifetime in DMV in mid August timeframe: dark green and thick, pretty amazing. Almost over the intense sun season hump. Actually set my landscape lights back 15 minutes to 8:30 last night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Clouded over last night, actually had 0.02 in gauge at 7 am from showers that pushed thru around 4-5 am. That helped to hold the temp up, 59.8 at 7 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 WB 12Z ICON through midday Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 NAM is pretty dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 For those wanting a mostly dry period this week, the trend is your friend. 12z GFS has next to nothing for the eastern third of the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 sigh Watering everything today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Another rain bust it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Everything is out of whack with the setup for this one to produce rain in our region. Nice writeup from Mount Holly- Sunday morning`s 12Z sounding from Upton, NY had a PWAT value of 0.70" approaching the 10th percentile value for August 14th of 0.67". The 12Z sounding from Sterling, VA was relatively closer to normal for August 14th, 1.10" as compared to a median value of 1.27". The difference between these two soundings help depict the gradient of moisture that exists across the region, with slightly below normal values further south towards Delmarva and well below normal values further north towards northern New Jersey. This overall lack of moisture is a key factor in the near term forecast. A short wave embedded in an upper-level trough will move through the region Sunday night into Monday. While PVA associated with this wave will increase forcing, the moisture advection with this wave will not be sufficient to overcome the amount of dry air currently in place. An increase in cloud coverage is expected overnight associated with the increase in instability but the dry air will prevent precipitation from occurring through much of the earlier hours on Monday. With the initial short wave offshore, the upper-level trough will dig further south resulting in largely easterly onshore flow at the surface. While a relative increase in surface moisture can be expected with the onshore flow, PVA will be forced further south by the trough and the best forcing will be further south along with it. The decrease in forcing combined with continued dry air in the lower levels above the surface has led to further decreased rain chances for Monday. Chance PoPs remain in the areas most likely to receive precipitation (Delmarva and the Lehigh Valley) but may need to be reduced further given the drier trend. For Tuesday, the surface low will push offshore and make a turn to the north, sliding up the coast. In the mid-levels, a 500 mb low will close off during the day on Tuesday across Pennsylvania. Previous runs of the GFS had been trying to pull the surface low closer to shore and strengthen it more than other guidance. However, the 14/12z deterministic and its ensembles have reverted back in line with the ECMWF and Canadian favoring a path further offshore, albeit still a bit deeper of a low. With consensus now keeping the track of the low offshore again, precipitation chances are subsequently decreasing and becoming more confined to the Jersey shore and southern parts of Delaware. In addition, the closed 500 mb low positioning is also likely acting to reduce precipitation amounts with the core of the low progged to sit over top of us. This will act to limit large scale ascent as vorticity rounds the base of the trough off to our south and east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Light Showers. Mental note to self. Don’t believe a NAM forecast for 4-5 inches of anything!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 4 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: sigh Watering everything today. I’ll be taking advantage of the cloud cover and joining you. My backyard is getting powdery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Light rain in Vienna. Wasn't in this morning's forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 And dewpoint at IAD is up to 65 already, not too far from the disgusting range. Didn't take too bloody long, didn't it? Hopes will always be crushed in this damned climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 I had to travel to Harper Ferry’s Brewery to get rain. So pleasant. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Steady light rain also 15 minutes to the east of Harper’s Ferry… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Light rain. Trying to send some to the desert of C MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 WB 18Z GFS is actually a little wetter… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Raining good enough for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 You people are f’ing miserable. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 Been raining for a while here... probably at least past 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 Lucked into a shield of rain up this way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 Quarter inch of rain overnight. Euro kicked butt on this event I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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