August Banter 2022

[George BM]

18 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

In my mind, you have to think about it as shifting the probability distribution.  Warming is always going to be on top of an existing mechanism.  

Tropical is tricky because there is still uncertainty how warming will manifest over the long run.  We could get the same number of storms globally, but an increase in strength.  Or other factors could intervene.  What if a result of warming ends up that the SAL becomes a dominant feature in the Atlantic?  Or the SST warming means more storms outside the climatological areas.  
 

 

I wonder if, other than the dry air intrusions into the MDR, the well above normal ssts in the 30-60N region of the Atlantic are partly to blame for robbing the deep tropics of lift.