August 2022 General Discussion

[hardypalmguy]

4 hours ago, Brian D said:

Two Harbors is hosting the Festival of Sails this year, aka Tall Ships. Duluth normally hosts it, but work is going on around the waterfront there. Here's a live cam.

 

Has Duluth finally made it out of the upper 40s each day at noon now?

[bowtie`]

9 hours ago, Brian D said:

Two Harbors is hosting the Festival of Sails this year, aka Tall Ships. Duluth normally hosts it, but work is going on around the waterfront there. Here's a live cam.

 

Thanks for that link. That 1,000 footer that came in around 2 in the afternoon made those tall ships look like toy boats. lol

[Baum]

looks like we'll never quite rid ourselves of this high dew airmass as it  looked earlier in the week. Not a fan of August gumbo. 

[Brian D]

21 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Has Duluth finally made it out of the upper 40s each day at noon now?

See for yourself. Still saw some chilly mornings there over the hill. Here in town, been a little cooler with the lake on the cool side.

Duluth, MN 

2022-07-01	75	48
2022-07-02	75	52
2022-07-03	73	50
2022-07-04	64	52
2022-07-05	77	54
2022-07-06	70	53
2022-07-07	84	52
2022-07-08	73	56
2022-07-09	76	50
2022-07-10	79	61
2022-07-11	74	60
2022-07-12	80	52
2022-07-13	69	54
2022-07-14	71	49
2022-07-15	81	56
2022-07-16	85	65
2022-07-17	85	60
2022-07-18	90	65
2022-07-19	82	64
2022-07-20	82	61
2022-07-21	80	63
2022-07-22	86	63
2022-07-23	76	60
2022-07-24	71	51
2022-07-25	74	51
2022-07-26	73	58
2022-07-27	77	56
2022-07-28	72	55
2022-07-29	75	54
2022-07-30	82	56
2022-07-31	81	66
2022-08-01	74	58
2022-08-02	72	57
2022-08-03	78	57
2022-08-04	77	56

 

Two Harbors, MN

2022-07-01	87	50
2022-07-02	79	49
2022-07-03	69	45
2022-07-04	63	46
2022-07-05	54	44
2022-07-06	59	43
2022-07-07	60	44
2022-07-08	77	51
2022-07-09	66	46
2022-07-10	65	47
2022-07-11	76	48
2022-07-12	70	53
2022-07-13	80	46
2022-07-14	69	47
2022-07-15	64	49
2022-07-16	62	50
2022-07-17	82	51
2022-07-18	67	51
2022-07-19	83	57
2022-07-20	67	52
2022-07-21	86	62
2022-07-22	84	56
2022-07-23	89	57
2022-07-24	73	55
2022-07-25	75	49
2022-07-26	67	52
2022-07-27	67	52
2022-07-28	79	53
2022-07-29	75	55
2022-07-30	78	52
2022-07-31	79	55
2022-08-01	72	58
2022-08-02	76	52
2022-08-03	66	52
2022-08-04	79	56

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

Here's something a little unusual.  Showers/storms in the sw Chicago metro are moving pretty much due west.

[sbnwx85]

If you need your "tracking snow" fix, you can take a look at Alaska. Oh yea...that's the stuff.

[bowtie`]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here's something a little unusual.  Showers/storms in the sw Chicago metro are moving pretty much due west.

Kind of the same here. Was that a low or a meso low in southern Indiana? Looks like it put out a boundary that was tracking southeast to northwest. Did blow out a top that was in perfect position for the sunset, so that was nice.

[Hoosier]

Looks like a shot for at least some isolated 100 degree readings in Iowa tomorrow.

[cyclone77]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like a shot for at least some isolated 100 degree readings in Iowa tomorrow.

I'm going with 105 in Cedar Rapids.

[A-L-E-K]

Hoping 4 weekend garden variety 

[cyclone77]

Dewpoint up to 80 with a heat index of 111 atm here.  It'd be even worse if these clouds weren't around to keep temps in the lower 90s.

[Geoboy645]

Uhhh so apparently Southern Wisconsin is under a day 2 mdt for flash flooding. 

...Great Lakes...
Convection should be ongoing Sunday morning across portions of 
IA/WI/IL. By this time activity should be getting more progressive 
in nature and probably on a bit of a downward trend in intensity. 
Thus the flash flood risk, which is higher Saturday night, should 
be waning Sunday morning, before picking up later in the day. This 
activity will then push across central/southern MI during the day 
and evening. PWs over MI will be near record values, so this 
convection will pose some flash flood risk. At this time tend to 
think the progressive nature of cells will keep the risk more 
isolated in nature, but something to keep an eye on as convective 
evolution/placement becomes more clear.

The bigger flash flood risk may end up evolving Sunday night into 
early Monday over portions of northeast IA into southern/central 
WI and northern IL. A strong mid level shortwave will eject east 
out of the Northern Plains Sunday night, increasing ascent along 
the stalled out boundary and expanding the instability pool back 
northward.  Right entrance upper jet dynamics and an increasing 
low level jet into the front will also play a role in likely 
increasing convective coverage and organization over these areas 
Sunday night. The system is progressive as a whole, which will put 
a limit on rainfall duration. However thickness diffluence and 
weak Corfidi Vectors support some backbuilding/training into the 
increasing low level jet...so some increased rainfall duration 
appears probable.  The low-level inflow is stronger on day 2 than 
day 1, and exceeds the mean 850-400 hPa wind by more, so for 
portions of southern WI, this appears to be the worse heavy 
rain/flash flood day, even if it's not explicitly forecast in the 
model QPFs.  Meanwhile PWs should remain over 2" and near record 
values. Thus the ingredients seem to be there for another round of 
potentially significant rainfall, with hourly rain totals to 3" 
possible where cells train or mesocyclones track.  There is some 
uncertainty on timing of the approaching wave and the position of 
the low level boundary.  Nonetheless, some areas could see heavy 
rainfall for a second day and some potential exists for 3-5"+ type 
rainfall amounts Sunday/Sunday night over portions of northeast 
IA, central and southern WI, and possibly northern IL.  Between 
days 1-2, localized storm totals of 10-14" cannot be ruled out, 
which if it unfolded would be similar in magnitude to the other 
significant flash flood/heavy rain events since late July in St. 
Louis MO, Southern IL, and Eastern KY.  Per coordination with the 
MKX/Milwaukee WI forecast office, a Moderate Risk was hoisted for 
southern WI for Sunday into Sunday night.  There's still a chance 
that a MDT to match could be raised later day for the day 1 period 
(ending Sunday morning), depending upon convective trends later 
today and tonight.  A High Risk at some point for areas near 
southern WI can't be ruled out, depending upon how the convection 
evolves later today through Sunday night.

I've seen this type of event before, this is how we get our major summer flooding events like August 18 or June 08. And it hasn't even been that wet here either, so it is really crazy seeing a potential upgrade to High Risk mentioned.

[Hoosier]

31 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Dewpoint up to 80 with a heat index of 111 atm here.  It'd be even worse if these clouds weren't around to keep temps in the lower 90s.

Have you had an 80 dew this year prior to today?

[hawkeye_wx]

39 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Dewpoint up to 80 with a heat index of 111 atm here.  It'd be even worse if these clouds weren't around to keep temps in the lower 90s.

Dubuque and QC have officially hit a dewpoint of 80º.  It's a sauna out there, but the high cloud spillage has certainly helped keep it bearable.

[Hoosier]

Up to 99 in Des Moines.  They've already been 99'd twice this summer and hopefully today isn't the third.

Was looking back at Des Moines data, and they got 99'd 5 times in 2011 without ever reaching 100.  That's terrible.

[hawkeye_wx]

Cedar Rapids' dewpoint just reached 80º.  The heat index is 111º.  I hope we can cash this soup in for some good rain.

[cyclone77]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Have you had an 80 dew this year prior to today?

This is the 4th day we've tagged 80 this year.  June 13, July 5, July 23, and today.

MLI has 3 80 degree dew days now.  June 13, July 23, and today.  They had 79 dew July 4th.

The dew of 73 combined with 96 temp back on May 11 is probably the most impressive stat though.  Getting a temp that high that early is tough, but simultaneous with dews that high was insane.  

[Hoosier]

DSM did indeed get 99'd again.

On another note, ORD/MDW tied at 95.

[madwx]

Looking like a potential heavy rain event over the next 36 hours.  MKX talking upwards of 10” over multiple rounds

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, madwx said:

Looking like a potential heavy rain event over the next 36 hours.  MKX talking upwards of 10” over multiple rounds

Pretty bold to mention that, especially since there isn't good model agreement in the areas of heavier rain and it's not something like a remnant tropical system.  But that being said, you can imagine how it ends up happening if things go right (or wrong).

[Guest]

Best climo, my ass. Lost 2 good pairs of boxers today working in this muck.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[cyclone77]

Dew hit 81 at MLI and 82 at Sterling.  Corn crops are starting to show signs of losing green as we're getting to that point in the season.  Corn evapotranspiration still in full force but it's going to drop off quite a bit going forward.

[Guest]

Best climo, my ass. Lost 2 good pairs of boxers today working in this muck.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Anybody got Stebo's address I want to mail them to him? He's always been a non believer.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[Hoosier]

haha

[cyclone77]

41 minutes ago, Guest said:

Anybody got Stebo's address I want to mail them to him? He's always been a non believer.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

in boxers?

[cyclone77]

Dew has been 80+ at MLI for the past 7 hours.  The 2pm ob had 79, otherwise it would be 9hrs in a row.

[Geoboy645]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Pretty bold to mention that, especially since there isn't good model agreement in the areas of heavier rain and it's not something like a remnant tropical system.  But that being said, you can imagine how it ends up happening if things go right (or wrong).

I mean we have had bad experiences with this type of setup before. 8/21/18 was pretty close to this with the storm motions being slow and parallel to a stationary front. That dropped 15 inches in one night. So better to be a little high on the expectations imo.

[madwx]

5 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

I mean we have had bad experiences with this type of setup before. 8/21/18 was pretty close to this with the storm motions being slow and parallel to a stationary front. That dropped 15 inches in one night. So better to be a little high on the expectations imo.

Excited for this.  Ready 2 flood

[CheeselandSkies]

4 hours ago, madwx said:

Looking like a potential heavy rain event over the next 36 hours.  MKX talking upwards of 10” over multiple rounds

Yeah, this was kind of sneaky.

[Baum]

we maybe looking at more than garden variety if it can hold together. Although morning convection usually does weaken as it approaches.