CIK62 Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 Dallas flooding is 5th 1-in-1,000-year flood event in US since late July Thursday, August 25, 2022 19:12 UTC Wyatt Loy, AccuWeather staff writer In the last five weeks, five areas across the United States have all experienced what should have been very unlikely -- if not impossible -- one in 1,000-year flooding events. The most recent historic flooding event occurred in Dallas on Monday, Aug. 22, where 8 to 16 inches of rain fell over a 24-hour stretch. The heavy rain flooded buildings, submerged cars on interstates and also caused the Trinity River to swell well beyond its normal water line. All of this resulted in billions of dollars worth of damage, according to an AccuWeather estimate. AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers, who has for decades closely studied the economic impacts of extreme weather, estimated that the total damage and economic loss resulting from the catastrophic flash flooding would range between $4.5 billion and $6 billion. This flooding occurred after a 67-day dry streak in the city, and according to Allen Li, a researcher at the University of Oklahoma, this weather whiplash is not only more common due to climate change but could happen again, even multiple times over the next 1,000 years. "One in 1,000 [years] doesn't mean that only happened once over 1,000 years," Li told AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell. It only means there's a 0.1 percent chance of it happening every year. >>>>>Remember in a large set of data, if the mean changes by a little, the extremes change by a lot. Once in every 'N Years' means a 63% of the event happening at least once in the time frame specified, here 1,000 years. >>>>>> CIK62 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 93 today. Sneaky hot days over performing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 No relief in sight. I'm sure the usual areas will see some storms at some point over the next 2 weeks though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 ISP 0.52" this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: No relief in sight. I'm sure the usual areas will see some storms at some point over the next 2 weeks though. Can only hope the HRRR is on to something for tomorrow. Would certainly help bring some temporary relief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 The 12z EPS is correcting stronger with the WAR/SE Ridge through the Labor Day weekend. So a continuation of our 90°+ pattern on the warmer days. Some hint that a tropical system could make it close to the Bahamas or Gulf after Labor Day. That may be our best chance at something more than the hit or miss convection which has been dominating. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: ISP 0.52" this month. Just 1.83" there since 7/1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, doncat said: Just 1.83" there since 7/1. And a bit over an inch came with that supercell in July if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: And a bit over an inch came with that supercell in July if I recall correctly. This is the driest July 1st - August 25th period on record at ISP. 1966 had 2.91" by this day. FRG has only had 1.00" since July 1st. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Dallas flooding is 5th 1-in-1,000-year flood event in US since late July Thursday, August 25, 2022 19:12 UTC Wyatt Loy, AccuWeather staff writer In the last five weeks, five areas across the United States have all experienced what should have been very unlikely -- if not impossible -- one in 1,000-year flooding events. The most recent historic flooding event occurred in Dallas on Monday, Aug. 22, where 8 to 16 inches of rain fell over a 24-hour stretch. The heavy rain flooded buildings, submerged cars on interstates and also caused the Trinity River to swell well beyond its normal water line. All of this resulted in billions of dollars worth of damage, according to an AccuWeather estimate. AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers, who has for decades closely studied the economic impacts of extreme weather, estimated that the total damage and economic loss resulting from the catastrophic flash flooding would range between $4.5 billion and $6 billion. This flooding occurred after a 67-day dry streak in the city, and according to Allen Li, a researcher at the University of Oklahoma, this weather whiplash is not only more common due to climate change but could happen again, even multiple times over the next 1,000 years. "One in 1,000 [years] doesn't mean that only happened once over 1,000 years," Li told AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell. It only means there's a 0.1 percent chance of it happening every year. >>>>>Remember in a large set of data, if the mean changes by a little, the extremes change by a lot. Once in every 'N Years' means a 63% of the event happening at least once in the time frame specified, here 1,000 years. >>>>>> CIK62 These were considered 1000 year events in our old climate. But they may actually be 10 to 100 year events in our warmer climate. So NOAA may be doing an update on the criteria soon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 Today was another hot day. Many locations from New York City to Philadelphia saw the temperature soar to 90° or above. The remainder of August will likely see generally above normal temperatures. Additional 90° or above days are possible in parts of the region. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September. On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was -9.04 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.728 today. On August 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.586 (RMM). The August 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.229 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.1° (3.0° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 8/25 EWR: 93 ACY: 93 TEB: 93 JFK: 92 PHL: 92 ISP: 91 New Brnswck: 91 NYC: 91 LGA: 91 TTN: 90 BLM: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 This is no shot any anyone here but anybody who refers to any weather event, at this point in time, as a 1-in-1000-year-occurrence has their head in the sand at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 8/25 EWR: 93 ACY: 93 TEB: 93 JFK: 92 PHL: 92 ISP: 91 New Brnswck: 91 TTN: 91 LGA: 91 TTN: 90 BLM: 88 NYC:91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 Currently 66F/DP 64/RH 87%..................90F for a high yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and very warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 89° Newark: 91° Philadelphia: 92° The remainder of August will likely see generally warmer than normal conditions. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.1°; 15-Year: 81.9° Newark: 30-Year: 83.5°; 15-Year: 83.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.6°; 15-Year: 84.3° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 The last 6 days of August are averaging 83degs,(76/91) or +8. Month to date is 79.2[+2.7]. August should end at 80.0[+3.9]. Reached 83 here yesterday. Today: 82-88, wind w., p. cloudy, 74 tomorrow AM., slight chance of rain late. 75*(85%RH) here at 7am. 77* at 9pm. 80* at 10am. 82* at Noon. 80* at 2pm, sun shower. 84* at 4pm. 85* from 5pm-6pm with another sun shower. Reached 87*, 6:30pm-7:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 75 / 68 and more humid. More 90s for the area today and slight chance of pop up storms today. Overall warm to hot at times through the end of the month. Trough and cool down for a 2 day affair Sep 1 - 2. Tropics remain active in some form or other on most guidance in the frist week of Sep. The Gulf seems to be where things may be targting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Tough to bet against an endless summer pattern into September with the Atlantic at all-time warmth for late summer. You'd think with all that heat things would be more active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 26, 2022 Author Share Posted August 26, 2022 High for the day yesterday was 94 here. Current temp 80/DP 71/RH 75% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The guidance continues to correct warmer. Older runs only had low 90s for next week. Now mid 90s are being forecast as 850 mb temperatures range from +18C to +20C. we roast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 86/74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You'd think with all that heat things would be more active Tons of dry air being funneled into the Atlantic from the Sahara for one thing, and also increased shear. Nina usually reduces the shear. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 On 8/25/2022 at 8:57 AM, SnoSki14 said: It'll correct cooler. +PNA and a trending -NAO oopsy poopsy. look at the war stopping the cold in its tracks. a wall of protection <3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 87/75. Nasty day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 i thought summer's back was broken 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i thought summer's back was broken The reports of summers back being broken were greatly exaggerated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 16 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i thought summer's back was broken To be repeated in 2 or 3 weeks with the first sub 80 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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