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August 2022


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17 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I'm glad someone is getting the much needed rain. We have  nothing and the radar at this point does not look to promising.

I've been lucky today after missing everything for the past 8 weeks it seems.  1.95" now.  Hopefully more can join in the party.

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11 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

Wow, your side of town only got that much? We are at 4.5" and just slowed down to a light rain...

Looks like the area in Branchburg and Readington Twp is hitting the JP with this event.  Several reports of rainfall reports in the 2-3” range so far in addition to yours.  Short range models have shown that potential in your area on some of the runs in the past 24 hours.  I have 1.22” with intermittent downpours out here.

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Could the volcanic explosion be affecting our climate? 

This is all very unusual 

This is why I’ve raised the question several times, but not wanting to be too forceful about inserting it unnaturally into the discussion here. 
 

The truth is volcanic climate disturbances are difficult to pinpoint already with respect to the normal cooling of a large, sulfur laden eruption. HTHH was something different with its tremendous water vapor greenhouse gas injection. A first in history. While a slight broad surface warming is now expected, I’m most interested in how this could be influencing the dynamics of the various oscillations and monsoons. 
 

Pinatubo caused jet stream disturbances along with lots of other atmospheric phenomena. But Pinatubo was a much more typical large explosive (magmatic) eruption. This was largely phreatomagmatic and heavily skewed toward a massive injection of water vapor with less ash and sulfur. 
 

I suspect this will be better determined in retrospect than in real time, what if any effect is had.  

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78 cooudy and some light rain overnight/ early morn.  We'll see if there is anything left.  Warmer Tue (8/23) and back to 90s for many in the region Wed (8/24) - Fri (8/26).  The coming Weekend Sat (8/28) and Sun (8/29) looking very nice.  Next shot at rain next week and then eyes on the tropics.  Overall warm to hot at times last 10 days of August.  Euro with latest run shows trough moving in by Labor day weekend and its control run had a hurricane along the east coast around labor day.  Overall warm and watch tropics by the start of next month.

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1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Looks like the area in Branchburg and Readington Twp is hitting the JP with this event.  Several reports of rainfall reports in the 2-3” range so far in addition to yours.  Short range models have shown that potential in your area on some of the runs in the past 24 hours.  I have 1.22” with intermittent downpours out here.

This was a nice surprise. Over 3" of rain in under an hour and 4.5" so far.

 

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

This is why I’ve raised the question several times, but not wanting to be too forceful about inserting it unnaturally into the discussion here. 
 

The unusually strong -IOD could be playing a role also.

 


 

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1 hour ago, Poker2015 said:

This was a nice surprise. Over 3" of rain in under an hour and 4.5" so far.

 

Interesting mesoscale setup in place roughly along I78 today.  The prevailing flow is lifting moisture up and over the boundary that is in place in this area resulting in numerous showers and storms forming along it.  I just passed 2” on the day.

69B9821C-FCE9-46BF-BE7D-460F9930EF94.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, Euripides said:

I am at the point where I do not trust any model output for any rain amounts.

Kudos to those who were able to get some decent amounts. Big bust for most.

The models were not all wrong.  This is from this morning’s 06z run of the HRRR.    It’s not totally correct however it did pick up on the rainfall maxes in parts of central NJ and eastern PA.

2061DDA0-739E-4DFB-881A-7CB1F16E1A87.png

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