bluewave Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: this went from a plains dominated heat blast to war dominated dewpoint heat Right on cue as the Western Atlantic SSTs are back to near all-time warmth for this time of year. We had a brief cooling from June into early July before the rapid rebound. Seems like the models have been consistently underestimating the WAR/SE Ridge beyond 120 hrs since around 2015. This is when the warm pool along with the perma-ridge began setting one new record after another. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: I would be skeptical of that since other models are not showing that much, but we'll see. Yeah euro's pretty meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah euro's pretty meh 12z euro pretty wet again for Friday and Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 94 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 80 degree dewpoint watch fri through tues 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 80 degree dewpoint watch fri through tues It was only a matter of time. Hopefully the drought areas see something beforehand d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It was only a matter of time. Hopefully the drought areas see something beforehand d Hard to imagine we all go dry with dewpoints like that.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 2, 2022 Author Share Posted August 2, 2022 25 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 80 degree dewpoint watch fri through tues 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Hard to imagine we all go dry with dewpoints like that.... Whatever storms we do get will be capable of dropping some very heavy rain with a DP like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 2, 2022 Author Share Posted August 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro has 75°+ dewpoints and 2.00+ PWATS from Friday until next Tuesday. So there there will be very heavy convection potential with the daytime heating. It will probably start out focusing along the daily sea breeze fronts and prefrontal trough. Then with the slow moving cold front next week that gets closer. But the heaviest rainfall locations each day probably won’t be known until the short term when we get inside the range of the high resolution meso models. Good potential for urban flash flooding IMO. It wouldn't surprise me if some places pick up a few inches of rain in a fairly short period of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro has 75°+ dewpoints and 2.00+ PWATS from Friday until next Tuesday. So there there will be very heavy convection potential with the daytime heating. It will probably start out focusing along the daily sea breeze fronts and prefrontal trough. Then with the slow moving cold front next week that gets closer. But the heaviest rainfall locations each day probably won’t be known until the short term when we get inside the range of the high resolution meso models. especially with leftover boundaries from convection the previous day(s) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 Interesting to see heat advisories issued for Thursday already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 CLIMATE... Thursday August 4 Record High/Year NYC 100/1944 BDR 93/1995 ISP 91/2006 LGA 99/1944 JFK 93/2006 EWR 100/1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 High of 92. Currently 86. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 All I want for Christmas is a Sept 2010-style macroburst/tornado event centered on KNYC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 Topped out at 92 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 86 for a high here 88 at ISP 89 in the concrete jungle of Central Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 49 minutes ago, Cfa said: All I want for Christmas is a Sept 2010-style macroburst/tornado event centered on KNYC. Good evening Cfa. Considering the incidents of extreme events, Christmas may not be a bad call. Stay well, as always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 @winterwarlock warm Muggies coming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 Some showers developing over NE NJ now headed towards NYC/Queens...its possible we could see a couple of them become a TSTM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 31 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @winterwarlock warm Muggies coming Such is August Today was pretty rough heat index wise We are getting some lawns in that have turned ratty after 2-3 weeks without a cut Also did one full tarp of leaves and blew a ton of leaves into the woods Will probably work Wednesday and Friday and take Thursday off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Some showers developing over NE NJ now headed towards NYC/Queens...its possible we could see a couple of them become a TSTM Was it forecast today? Anyway..in the Bx, at the track in Pelham Bay Pk it's partly sunny with moderate rain..a few heavier bursts. Home thermometer says rain and 90. Very FL like. High was 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 It’s drizzling fat rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region today. Tomorrow will be another very warm day with similar temperatures. The heat will likely peak on Thursday with temperatures rising well into the 90s across the region with some spots approaching or reaching 100°. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the fall. The SOI was +25.79 (old record: +20.20, 1998). The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.195 today. On July 31 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.679 (RMM). The July 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.661 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 I got storms heading my way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 Another 10.00”+ extreme rainfall event today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 Suffolk Water Authority expands water emergency to 4 East End towns Suffolk County Water Authority officials have expanded water emergency conditions declared in Southampton Village to its customers in the entire town, along with Southold, East Hampton and Shelter Island. The declaration of a Stage 1 Water Emergency for those towns was made to ensure there is sufficient water for firefighting and other emergency purposes, Water Authority and municipal officials said at a Tuesday morning news conference. It comes just days after the state designated Long Island and more than 20 other counties to be on drought watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 8/2 EWR: 95 New Brnswck: 94 BLM: 94 LGA: 93 ACY: 93 PHL: 93 TTN: 92 TEB: 92 NYC: 90 JFK: 89 ISP: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 NYC pulled it out and still running 3 - 5 below surrounding sites on the hotter/hottest days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 Taken from the south shore of Suffolk, fairly tall storms over CT. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 18z euro 1-2 area wide now Friday into Saturday 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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