wthrmn654 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 should i start a thread for tonight/tomorrow? i'm scared 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 85 / 66 and now mostly cloudy after a partly sunny moring. Should see some breaks in the clouds and get more sun in the afternoon. Trough pushes front through later tonight and Mon (8/22) and into Tue (8/23). Best shot of widespread 0.76 or grater rainfall. Mets/ Yanks rain out? By Wed (8/24) its warmer again and the usual hot spots more chances of 90, wet park could be capped below 90 till it dries out. Overall warm to hot at times and humid last 10 days of the month with more rain chances (not hard vs the recent dryness and missed opportunities). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 43 minutes ago, forkyfork said: should i start a thread for tonight/tomorrow? i'm scared I'm scared of the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I'm scared of the rgem Hi-Res looks better. I think things pretty much on track for widespread 1/2" to 1" NNJ into NYC and L.I. Some will do better than 1" but I think most everyone gets to the 1/2". We need it! We miss out on this and we're skunked for another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Temp 82F/DP 65%/RH 58% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 unless i missed a month ewr's august record for 90s is 17 in 1988. so far we're at 13 this month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Warmer than average temperatures on the EPS through the Labor Day weekend. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 I’ve been watching an anvil stay almost stationary for over an hour here in Charlotte. Too bad it’s drifting away from me. 86/65 high/low back in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 Unsettled weather is likely early this week. Showers and thundershowers will bring some welcome relief from the emergent drought. Much of the region will likely see total rainfall of 0.50"-1.00" with locally higher amounts through Tuesday. Much of the second half of August could see above to much above normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September. On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +3.88 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.438 today. On August 19 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.608 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.492 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.6° (2.5° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 Severe weather is not expected at this time. However, the proximity of the warm front, high helicity values, and 0-3 km shear values of over 40 kt could lend to an isolated tornado, which if it did occur, would occur where the heavier rain showers start to move in as mentioned previously. Climatologically speaking, the warm front moving through the area lends to an increased threat for tornado development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 This looks depressing for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 8/21 TEB: 88 New Brnswck: 87 PHL: 86 TTN: 86 ACY: 85 ISP: 83 EWR: 83 LGA: 83 JFK: 82 NYC: 82 BLM: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: This looks depressing for me. Not sold on this at least area wide. Models generally look meh especially east of the Hudson. Any rain is more than welcome but outside of a couple lucky spots I doubt it makes any dent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 5 hours ago, jm1220 said: Not sold on this at least area wide. Models generally look meh especially east of the Hudson. Any rain is more than welcome but outside of a couple lucky spots I doubt it makes any dent. It will take a tropical system to bring some drought relief area wide with how large the current rainfall deficit is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Heavy downpours are possible. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 81° Philadelphia: 84° Tomorrow will see additional showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain will be heavy. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.8°; 15-Year: 82.5° Newark: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 84.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 84.9° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It will take a tropical system to bring some drought relief area wide with how large the current rainfall deficit is. The rain looks broken/scattered and I doubt many of us even get the 0.5”. Looks like a small part of Ocean County got 2-3” or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 82degs.(74/91) or +7. Month to date is 79.2[+2.5]. Should be 80.0[+3.8] by the 30th. Reached 81 here yesterday. Today: 80-84, wind e., cloudy, rain 0.5"-1.0" from 10am-5pm-part of total on Tues., 72 tomorrow AM. Want rain? Dallas had up to 8" last night and 6" more is coming during the next three days-then heat is back for them. 75*(98%RH) here at 7am, drizzle. 78* at 9am. Down to 75* at Noon. 78* at 1pm. 81* around 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The rain looks broken/scattered and I doubt many of us even get the 0.5”. Looks like a small part of Ocean County got 2-3” or so. Yeah, it won’t take much for the 90° heat to return in a few days with how dry it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 It's raining better my end area then other areas.. how ironic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 Radar scope has crashed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 Heads up, if everyone who uses radarscope is having data issues, KDIX is updating correctly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 Have received 0.82” from the ongoing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 .90" mod rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 Still nothing here. I was away for a week and it's amazing how much worse everything looks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 75 here & cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 Over 1.50" now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 Could the volcanic explosion be affecting our climate? This is all very unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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