bluewave Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 37 minutes ago, Rjay said: Lol. The gfs with a stellar performance from inside 36 hours. Even the lockitin account on twitter took notice of the recent over-amped GFS solutions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 6 hours ago, SRRTA22 said: Thanks for the screengrab. My MIL in Piscataway said she got .51 last night and there was lightning and thunder. I missed out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even the lockitin account on twitter took notice of the recent over-amped GFS solutions. So how much snow is that? With the sun beginning to angle down does that mean this could overperform? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 First time that Newark had back to back 40+ days of 90°. The 40 days of 90°+ ties the NJ state current leader board with Hightstown and South Jersey regional airport. Places like LGA and POU are near the top in NY as the tree growth causes NYC to fall further back in the pack. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2022 40 137 - 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 Data for January 1, 2022 through August 17, 2022Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 40 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 40 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 40 Newark Area ThreadEx 40 Data for January 1, 2022 through August 17, 2022Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 27 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 26 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 26 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 26 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 26 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 25 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP 23 SHRUB OAK COOP 22 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 22 Albany Area ThreadEx 22 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 20 ELMIRA COOP 20 WHITEHALL COOP 20 MILLBROOK 3 W WBAN 20 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 19 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 I don't know if Newark can take the top spot but the second spot is def in the cards. Definitely a lot of near 90 potential rest of the month and September always gives us a few 90s too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I don't know if Newark can take the top spot but the second spot is def in the cards. Definitely a lot of near 90 potential rest of the month and September always gives us a few 90s too. We are probably headed for a drought monitor upgrade with the 90s making a return tomorrow into Friday for the usual warm spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are probably headed for a drought monitor upgrade with the 90s making a return tomorrow into Friday for the usual warm spots. Dry ground also makes it more likely the 90s happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 75 / 59 ENE flow. Clouds building down into the area and probably on the more cloudy side the rest of the day compared to the last few days as cut off trough spins through a low into the northeast. Highs upper 70s / low 80s but a bit more humid and some isolated showers perhaps. Clearing out and warming up Thu and Fri (8/19) with some of the now drier and warm spots tagging on more 90s these days. By Sat (8/20) low of the Southeast coast spins up - GFS has rains , Euro keeps her offshore but at least the next chance for rain as we await the likely deluge at some points in the reversal. Beyond there Overall warm to hot at times, and humid last 10 days of the month as we remain in a more southerly tendency flow. Perhaps more sustained late season heat towards the close of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 4 hours ago, bluewave said: With a few weeks to go, Newark is still in 1st place for driest summer just ahead of 1966. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through AugClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 3.57 15 2 1966 4.46 0 3 1949 5.68 0 4 1957 5.69 0 5 1965 5.83 0 6 1963 6.18 0 7 1993 6.20 0 8 1953 6.47 0 9 2010 6.74 0 10 1999 6.93 0 Most of that fell in June. We'll see if the next opportunity on Sat (8/20) as low moves up the EC. Can that track close enough to bring some rains into the area or just a cloudy Saturday. If not then., Tue (8/23) front passes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 43 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Dry ground also makes it more likely the 90s happen. There are some hints at a gradual pattern change to more rainfall opportunities in the coming weeks. The drought ridge sitting in the Plains all summer is forecast to shift. So we get into more of a WAR pattern heading into September. So looking like our classic early September endless summer pattern with plenty of 80s and 90s and convection chances. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: There are some hints at a gradual pattern change to more rainfall opportunities in the coming weeks. The drought ridge sitting in the Plains all summer is forecast to shift. So we get into more of a WAR pattern heading into September. So looking like our classic early September endless summer pattern with plenty of 80s and 90s and convection chances. Hopefully but these days I believe it when I see it. These patterns seem to reinforce and lock in place more and more these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully but these days I believe it when I see it. These patterns seem to reinforce and lock in place more and more these days. I agree. Something to hope for but based upon how the current Ohio Valley / Eastern trof evolved and played out with hefty rain totals forecast and we literally received nothing I don't put much faith in these longer range projections at this time. Nice to see it on a map, it does offer hope just not something I place high confidence in at this juncture. IF the forecast pattern is real it would tend to open the door to some east coast tropical activity but we're a ways off from seeing how this actually evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 what a model fail today. do not buy into coastal captures unless there's a block over greenland/se canada 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 So happy for our deformation drizzle drops this morning. The pavement was wet for about 10 seconds too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, MANDA said: I agree. Something to hope for but based upon how the current Ohio Valley / Eastern trof evolved and played out with hefty rain totals forecast and we literally received nothing I don't put much faith in these longer range projections at this time. Nice to see it on a map, it does offer hope just not something I place high confidence in at this juncture. IF the forecast pattern is real it would tend to open the door to some east coast tropical activity but we're a ways off from seeing how this actually evolves. We may have a better shot at convection than anything tropical affecting the East Coast in the next few weeks. The GFS has been too strong recently with the tropical waves coming off Africa. It can’t seem to handle the influence if all the dry air over the MDR. This is one of the slowest starts to the hurricane season due to all the sinking air out there. So we may have to wait until September for the subtropics to compensate for the lack of deep tropical development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 We may have a better shot at convection than anything tropical affecting the East Coast in the next few weeks. The GFS has been too strong recently with the tropical waves coming off Africa. It can’t seem to handle the influence if all the dry air over the MDR. This is one of the slowest starts to the hurricane season due to all the sinking air out there. So we may have to wait until September for the subtropics to compensate for the lack of deep tropical development. [/url] It’s absolutely mind boggling. I would have bet the farm this year would be hyperactive. This could be the climate change issue that keeps storm numbers low in the Atlantic . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 41 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s absolutely mind boggling. I would have bet the farm this year would be hyperactive. This could be the climate change issue that keeps storm numbers low in the Atlantic . Less development in the MDR and more close in action around the Bahamas and Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 7 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: So how much snow is that? With the sun beginning to angle down does that mean this could overperform? The pattern depicted in this run would be more likely to bring rain or mixed precip at least to coastal areas if this were to occur in January. The center of SLP would be too far to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 5 hours ago, forkyfork said: what a model fail today. do not buy into coastal captures unless there's a block over greenland/se canada You know it’s not going to happen when the GFS is the only model showing the furthest west capture like with Joaquin in 2015 and other coastal events before a big shift east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: You know it’s not going to happen when the GFS is the only model showing the furthest west capture like with Joaquin in 2015 and other coastal events before a big shift east. joaquin had a similar blocking pattern where the block wasn't centered far enough east to force a capture 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 0.25 inches today Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 An offshore storm brought plenty of clouds to the region today. A few locations saw some drizzle or showers. Out West, Boise recorded its 20th 100° day of the year. That tied the record set in 2003. 9 of Boise's 10 warmest summers have occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1875. Salt Lake City further extended its annual record of 100° days to 23 days. Generally cooler than normal conditions will persist through tomorrow. Afterward, a warmup is likely, though no excessive heat will occur through at least the weekend. Much of the second half of August could see above to much above normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was -6.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.036 today. On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.074 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.294 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.0° (1.9° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 some kinda light rain/drizzle falling from the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 FOR THE RECORD. TRADE THIS FOR A HURRICANE: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/dep/water/reservoir-levels.page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 What's this falling out of the sky? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 0.0" here, so far, might get a little rain in a bit. Easthampton picked up 0.74" of rain today and dropped to 59 degrees during the heaviest rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 8/17 PHL: 84 JFK: 84 EWR: 82 ISP: 82 LGA: 82 TEB: 81 New Brnswck: 81 BLM: 81 NYC: 81 ACY: 80 TTN: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 Rain and thunder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 .15 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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