Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

August 2022


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If I had a dollar every time I heard that this summer I'd be rich. 

We are getting closer to some of the bad drought years but I assume the heavy rains of the past decade will keep us afloat for a while.

Reservoir levels still look ok.

So true third times a charm maybe. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If I had a dollar every time I heard that this summer I'd be rich. 

We are getting closer to some of the bad drought years but I assume the heavy rains of the past decade will keep us afloat for a while.

Reservoir levels still look ok.

Its not like nobody's had rain in the past 2 weeks. We had several consecutive days of pop up variety storms mostly over the same areas

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its not like nobody's had rain in the past 2 weeks. We had several consecutive days of pop up variety storms mostly over the same areas

Yeah it's really only been dry for a couple of months...our problems arise if we have very dry winters and springs..that's when our reservoirs fill up.

 

 

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today featured bright sunshine and pleasant temperatures in the lower and middle 80s. In the West, Salt Lake City recorded its 22nd 100° day. That broke the annual record of 21 days, which was set in 1960 and tied in 1994 and 2021.

Generally cooler than normal conditions will persist through Thursday. Afterward, a warmup is likely, though no excessive heat will occur through at least the weekend.

Much of the second half of August could see above to much above normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +9.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.291 today.

On August 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.296 (RMM). The August 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.337 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.8° (1.7° above normal).

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

WHEN WILL THE NHC REALLY LOWER THEIR SEASONAL OUTLOOK?        

1661536800-SWQ1SMow5lc.png

It only takes one to make it a memorable season but having a hard time seeing the lofty number of named storms at this point.  Would need to be a non stop naming frenzy for September and October to get there.  The 1992 season would have been a total late starting dud were it not for one storm - Andrew.  Which oddly enough was classified as a TD on 8/16 - yesterday back in 1992.  It did pretty much nothing for a week or so before busting through the TUTT and then going to town.  Just entering the peak season now but off to a very slow start and we might make it though to CLOSE to the end of the month without a named system.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Enjoying these refreshing cool evenings with no AC. If it's not going to rain might as well be pleasant even if it's not going last

pleasant means 80s at night with dews above 70. this is wretched 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

woken up by pouring rain i haven't seen in months only to find the tiniest of cells.  0% chance, completely crazy.

Same here in Belle Mead totally unexpected downpour at 3:40am

 

The trajectory if this cell was insane coming from northeast and dropping diagonally across the state

 

We take

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With a few weeks to go, Newark is still in 1st place for driest summer just ahead of 1966.


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2022 3.57 15
2 1966 4.46 0
3 1949 5.68 0
4 1957 5.69 0
5 1965 5.83 0
6 1963 6.18 0
7 1993 6.20 0
8 1953 6.47 0
9 2010 6.74 0
10 1999 6.93 0
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging  78degs.(72/86) or about +2.5.

Month to date is  79.9[+3.0].      Should be about  79.3[+2.7] by the 25th.

Reached 83 here late yesterday.

Today:  77-81, wind ne. to w., variable clouds.

Interesting Labor Day Weekend coming.      The labor will be the cleanup from Danielle and the prep for Earl.     lol.

WHAT......ME WORRY?

gfs_z850_vort_atl_64.png

69*(71%RH) here at 7am.       73* at 9am.        75* at 10am.        77* at Noon.        78* at 1pm.      Reached  80* at 2pm.          76* at 7pm.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy and somewhat cooler than normal. A few places could see some showers. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 84°

Cooler than normal conditions will persist through tomorrow before near  normal and somewhat above normal temperatures return.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.4°; 15-Year: 83.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 85.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 85.7°

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...