August 2022

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

 

I guess we are “due” for a dry cycle. Ever since the last drought broke back in 2002, we have been in a very wet cycle for the past 20 years 

[wthrmn654]

34 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we're barely even going to get clouds from this storm system

These clouds? 

 

[wthrmn654]

This looks much more accurate then what we saw 5 days ago! 

[Snowlover11]

can we get some of that rain down in mexico lol

[SnoSki14]

Very likely we might not see rain for another week or so and more upgrades in drought severity seem likely 

[SACRUS]

86/ 50 . Onshore / southerly flow train next few days and what could be come the next few weeks overall.  Trough is cut off but so it seems if the rain for the most part.  Partly cloudy today, onshore flow and low / mid 80s.  More of the same Tue (8/16) and Wed (8/17) perhaps more showers possible along the shore.  Cut off pulls out later Wed and Thu (8/17) and into the weekend, humid, warmer.  First shot back at 90 / lows 90s in the warmer spots Thu and Fri. 

Weekend looking warm / humid as trough backs into the GL and warm along the coast.  Overall warm to hot (at times) last 10 days of the month. Perhaps the humid flow gets daily or frequent pop up shower ala Florida style.

[SACRUS]

16 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I am counting 17 90+ days so far for Central Park this season and I think they're going end up with at least 21. None this week as near to below normal temperatures continue. It looks as though the surface winds will be more light variable or southerly at first as heat and humidity try to rebuild late next weekend into the following week so 90+ is unlikely at first. But later in the month the ensembles have come around to a warmer look over the last few run cycles so I do think eventually the Park will see 4-7 more days of 90+ weather perhaps including another heatwave.

WX/PT

19 days at central park and 4 days stuck at 89 (so far). 

 

Wouldn't rule out some of the warmer/drier spots touching 90 once or twice by the 23rd. This is the setup that favored LGA (2018/19) vs EWR etc.   Maybe by this weekend (Thu / Fri) but S/ESE flow may muddy that up. 

[SACRUS]

 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

This looks much more accurate then what we saw 5 days ago! 

What a joke. The rich get richer while the people who need it get skunked. Par for the course in these perma-patterns we seem to get stuck in these days. 

[forkyfork]

what is it with the operational euro and hooking coastal lows west

 

[Dark Star]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

what is it with the operational euro and hooking coastal lows west

 

The present radar looks like some sick demented anti-drought joke...

 

[wthrmn654]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what is it with the operational euro and hooking coastal lows west

 

Probably thinks it's still good like when it made that left hand turn for Sandy. 

[SACRUS]

Easterly winds have cleared clouds from most of the region.  Bright / deep blue skies now 84 / 51 here.

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very likely we might not see rain for another week or so and more upgrades in drought severity seem likely 

We haven’t been able to buy a legit soaking rain since May to save our lives

[SRRTA22]

On 8/14/2022 at 4:12 PM, SRRTA22 said:

Ive been noticing an increase of tree damage the last couple of weeks(large branches, even some downed trees) probably from the gusty winds following the CF thurs/fri 

between the drought and laternflies, i think we have a serious problem if we get any storm that produces 40+mph winds

 

"A woman was killed and another was injured when a huge tree fell into a pool in the Bronx on Monday.

 

The incident was reported at a private pool at the River Terrace Apartments around 1:30 p.m. on Palisade Avenue."

another man had a large limb fall on his head while in a park in brooklyn

 

[gravitylover]

Unbalanced trees are falling over all over the place up here. I haven't lost any yet but two are taking on a pretty good lean and will probably go over sometime soon. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

6 hours ago, SACRUS said:

19 days at central park and 4 days stuck at 89 (so far). 

 

Wouldn't rule out some of the warmer/drier spots touching 90 once or twice by the 23rd. This is the setup that favored LGA (2018/19) vs EWR etc.   Maybe by this weekend (Thu / Fri) but S/ESE flow may muddy that up. 

19? I got my count from UOFIAMI99 and we added it up to 17. If it's 19, 24 90+ days for the season should be no problem. I was just away on Cape Cod for about 11 days. I think we'll flirt with 90 probably upper 80s this weekend, but I think we'll get heat from the 27th or 28th on and into September. 

WX/PT

[donsutherland1]

Generally cooler than normal conditions will persist through the week. Afterward, a warmup is likely, though no excessive heat will occur through at least the weekend.

Much of the second half of August could see above to much above normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +13.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.021 today.

On August 13 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.345 (RMM). The August 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.213 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.7° (1.6° above normal).

 

[uofmiami]

13 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

19? I got my count from UOFIAMI99 and we added it up to 17. If it's 19, 24 90+ days for the season should be no problem. I was just away on Cape Cod for about 11 days. I think we'll flirt with 90 probably upper 80s this weekend, but I think we'll get heat from the 27th or 28th on and into September. 

WX/PT

It's 19 if you include the 2 days in May, when the park hit 90+

[SACRUS]

8/15

 

TEB: 86
New Brnswck: 85
PHL: 85
EWR: 83
NYC: 83
LGA: 83
TT: 82
JFK: 82
ISP: 80
ACY: 80
BLM: 78

[Wxoutlooksblog]

41 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

It's 19 if you include the 2 days in May, when the park hit 90+

Why wouildn't I? I think we'll notch at least 2 more this month and about 3-5 in September. We might even get to 26. But it may be more unusual heat with low humidity and not classic heatwave heat. 

WX/PT

[doncat]

Still a couple of weeks to go of course,  but rainfall here for July-Aug last year was 20.98"...so far this year 2.50"... normal is 9.40".

[the_other_guy]

62F. Glorious

 

But my backyard is dust where the sprinkler doesnt reach :/

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  78degs.(71/86) or +2.

Month to date is  80.3[+3.3].      Should be 79.5[+2.8] by the 24th.

Reached 82 here yesterday.

Today:  79-84, wind e., variable clouds, 67 tomorrow AM.

68*(78%RH) here at 7am.       72* at 9am.      74* at 10am.       77* at Noon.        78* at 1pm.        down to 76* at 2pm.       Reached 83* near 7pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and somewhat cooler than normal. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 81°

Newark: 85°

Philadelphia: 83°

Cooler than normal conditions will persist through Thursday before near  normal and somewhat above normal temperatures return.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.5°; 15-Year: 83.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.9°; 15-Year: 85.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.0°; 15-Year: 85.8°

[wthrmn654]

2 hours ago, doncat said:

Still a couple of weeks to go of course,  but rainfall here for July-Aug last year was 20.98"...so far this year 2.50"... normal is 9.40".

You had 20 inches total of rainfall last year just for July and Aug?! My god,I don't remember it being that wet

[MANDA]

35 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

You had 20 inches total of rainfall last year just for July and Aug?! My god,I don't remember it being that wet

It was an extremely wet season last year and that is what made the rains from Ida so much worse.  Not that it wouldn't have been a terrible situation without the antecedent wet conditions but when you add the wet summer to rains from Ida it was beyond historic for most of NJ.   My total here for July, August, September and October was 34.20"!

[SACRUS]

75/ 60 after  low of 57.   E / ENE flow and continued partly sunny. More low / mid 80s Tue (8/16) and Wed (8/17) as we evade the rains and the cut off pulls out into Northern New England.  Warmer by  the end of the week and a outside chance some of the warmer and now even drier areas can get to 90 Fri (8/19).  This weekend looks very nice again with what appears to be plenty of sunshine and warm weather.  

The Western Atlantic Ridge is building back west and rising heights into the east coast and trough forced back into the GL.  Overall warm to hot at times and humid with rain chances ala Florida style pattern, the last 10 days of the month.  

[IrishRob17]

3 hours ago, doncat said:

Still a couple of weeks to go of course,  but rainfall here for July-Aug last year was 20.98"...so far this year 2.50"... normal is 9.40".

Last year was 11.72" here over that same time period, so far this year 1.69" and my normal is 9.02"

[SnoSki14]

24 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

75/ 60 after  low of 57.   E / ENE flow and continued partly sunny. More low / mid 80s Tue (8/16) and Wed (8/17) as we evade the rains and the cut off pulls out into Northern New England.  Warmer by  the end of the week and a outside chance some of the warmer and now even drier areas can get to 90 Fri (8/19).  This weekend looks very nice again with what appears to be plenty of sunshine and warm weather.  

The Western Atlantic Ridge is building back west and rising heights into the east coast and trough forced back into the GL.  Overall warm to hot at times and humid with rain chances ala Florida style pattern, the last 10 days of the month.  

If I had a dollar every time I heard that this summer I'd be rich. 

We are getting closer to some of the bad drought years but I assume the heavy rains of the past decade will keep us afloat for a while.

Reservoir levels still look ok.