SACRUS Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam now brings us rain....on saturday can we just put it out of its misery already Would not surprise me if sat / sun are more cloudy and spotty showers with cut off over the northeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam now brings us rain....on saturday can we just put it out of its misery already Is the NAM supposed to be shut down soon? I thought I remembered reading that, but now can't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 13 hours ago, Dark Star said: Maybe not Siberia, with all the problems right now, how about Svalbard Islands? I’ll volunteer for Kamchatka. Some very fascinating volcanoes there. I’m better built for the cold than the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, FPizz said: Is the NAM supposed to be shut down soon? I thought I remembered reading that, but now can't find it. Development was frozen on the NAM after the March 2017 update. So it has fallen behind models like the HRRR and RGEM which have had major upgrades over the last 5 years. Building a new model to take its place is very challenging. The one area that the NAM seems to do better at is detecting the 750-950mb warm layer in winter storms. So it handles the changeover from snow to sleet and rain pretty well. NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 what a beautiful day it is today. what a different feel.. cooler light northerly breeze.i am happy real summer is over until next year!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Long Beach the hot spot today-up to 85 already. If anyone gets to 90 it might be there. It can heat up in S Nassau on these N wind days. Bit if a downslope component from the north shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 41 minutes ago, nycwinter said: what a beautiful day it is today. what a different feel.. cooler light northerly breeze.i am happy real summer is over until next year!! 90 behind a cold front in august lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 11AM Round up PHL: 87 JFK: 85 New Brnswck: 85 ISP: 84 ACY: 84 BLM: 84 EWR: 83 TTN: 81 NYC: 80 LGA: 80 TEB: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 More clearing into NNJ/ EWR/ NYC LI etc now http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 53 minutes ago, nycwinter said: what a beautiful day it is today. what a different feel.. cooler light northerly breeze.i am happy real summer is over until next year!! No it's still very much summer. 86F now and probably making a run at 90 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 90 behind a cold front in august lol Still working with 850 MB temps >15c for most part. Today and tomorrow, pending on sun, could get the warmer / drier spots to 90, more into CNJ/NE NJ usual spots before the cooler air arrives later Thu. While these next two days may over perform on high temps, the weekend could have a tendency to cloud up and under perform, perhaps monday and tuesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Just now, SACRUS said: Still working with 850 MB temps >15c for most part. Today and tomorrow, pending on sun, could get the warmer / drier spots to 90, more into CNJ/NE NJ usual spots before the cooler air arrives later Thu. While these next two days may over perform on high temps, the weekend could have a tendency to cloud up and under perform, perhaps monday and tuesday as well. the lagging caa is partially why we did poorly with thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: No it's still very much summer. 86F now and probably making a run at 90 today. the heat we just endured fro days will not be coming back i do not think until next year...fingers crossed that is what real summer means... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 48 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 90 behind a cold front in august lol even if we somehow did it 90 no comparison to yesterday with temps high 90's to low 100's in some places and dewpoints over 70.. it is a different feel today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, nycwinter said: even if we somehow did it 90 no comparison to yesterday with temps high 90's to low 100's in some places and dewpoints over 70.. it is a different feel today... we used to get occasional summers where heat like that never came 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, nycwinter said: the heat we just endured fro days will not be coming back i do not think until next year...fingers crossed that is what real summer means... yep worst of it is over for the season in absolutes. Hard to get 95+ as we move along and days get shorter and climo averages begin to drop 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: what a beautiful day it is today. what a different feel.. cooler light northerly breeze.i am happy real summer is over until next year!! And in just a few short weeks we’ll have the first official predictions of “winter cancelled” and then we can start looking ahead to next summer!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 minute ago, tdp146 said: And in just a few short weeks we’ll have the first official predictions of “winter cancelled” and then we can start looking ahead to next summer!! LOL. I already see some in the NE forum... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: LOL. I already see some in the NE forum... Yeah several posts today and a couple of seasonal forecasts. It seems an early start to winter mode even for them, but probably because winter signals are grim at this stage. I am not too optimistic but it's well early. That block from a few weeks ago, we will need that to return, is my suspicion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Yeah several posts today and a couple of seasonal forecasts. It seems an early start to winter mode even for them, but probably because winter signals are grim at this stage. I am not too optimistic but it's well early. That block from a few weeks ago, we will need that to return, is my suspicion. Most winters come down to whether blocking shows up...good luck trying to figure that out at this lead time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 In other news the GFS has a big rain event early next week-some parts of New England get 3-5 inches of rain. Locally everyone here would get 1-2 inches verbatim. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 87, and rising, with intermittent cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 The record breaking warm pool is still there in the NW Atlantic. This has been associated with our first 7 warmer than normal winters in a row since the super El Nino in 15-16. So the main question now is whether we get blocking for more snowfall or a stronger PV and less snow. But that probably won’t be known until until we get close to the start of the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: In other news the GFS has a big rain event early next week-some parts of New England get 3-5 inches of rain. Locally everyone here would get 1-2 inches verbatim. Cmc and icon also. We really need the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: lol we hug 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 honestly we're in the era where everything gets dialed up to 11 so why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 3 hours ago, nycwinter said: what a beautiful day it is today. what a different feel.. cooler light northerly breeze.i am happy real summer is over until next year!! why are all you winter posters so bad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Lots of clouds around today...holding at 84°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Pronounced sea breeze boundary today, looks like it stalled around the LIE in Suffolk and Hempstead Tpke in Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now