August 2022

[Rtd208]

46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think we'll see more rain moving forward. Droughts here don't last very long. 

Also apex of heat likely this Thursday. Ridge pulls back west a few days later. 100+ temps become very tough to do after mid August.

Believe it or not the sun angle does start to matter eventually 

I agree. It's been pretty dry and uneventful especially the last 3-4 months. We also haven't had much severe weather with the exception of a few isolated area in the metro region. I think we are headed back to a wetter/stormier pattern.

[Brian5671]

Euro, GFS and CMC have alot of convection over their 0Z run last night

[wthrmn654]

0.26

 

I'll take it

[wthrmn654]

Nws thinking we could see pulse wet microbursts Friday with current thinking. 

[TWCCraig]

Less than a quarter inch here. Not really enough to put a dent in the deficit. We need a real deluge to get us somewhere. The drought on the south shore continues, and will continue.

[SACRUS]

A nice 0.51 in the bucket overnight.  Clouds stuck all day and keeping it near 80.  Perhaps the first sub 80 high for many since June.  Once past today the heat is on Tue (8/2) through Fri (8/5) with 850 mb temps surging to >20c by wed, Thu and Fri.  Look for many mid  upper 90s and 100s in the warm spots similar to last go around.  Friday will see more southerly flow and humidity and with it starts the more Florida style pattern as the Western Atlantic ridge expands west.  A bit of a weakness between the W.AR and the Rockies / Plains ridge over the coming weekend Sat (8/6) and Sun (8/7) could mean best widespread rain chances in a while and potential for rainouts for the Mets. Beyond there continued overall warm into next week Mon (8/8) and humid.  

[FPizz]

.62" nice!

[nycwinter]

cool  day for the first day in august i am enjoying this..

[Wxoutlooksblog]

My thinking is that if winds are from too southerly a component coastal sections and NYC are not going to be as hot as expected tomorrow and Wednesday. This possibility needs to be watched.

WX/PT

 

[uncle W]

9 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

My thinking is that if winds are from too southerly a component coastal sections and NYC are not going to be as hot as expected tomorrow and Wednesday. This possibility needs to be watched.

WX/PT

 

when I lived in Brooklyn any breeze backing to the south gave me lower temperatures than NYC...a westerly compoment made me warmer than NYC...

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 minute ago, uncle W said:

when I lived in Brooklyn any breeze backing to the south gave me lower temperatures than NYC...a westerly compoment made me warmer than NYC...

In order for the hottest temperatures to occur we really need a downsloping westerly or even west northwesterly wind. In order to get that, we need a strong westward extension of the Bermuda HP and not too far south. While we could see that if the models have over-estimated the southeastward movement of the alleged cold front Thursday night through Saturday, I'm not really just yet sold on it. The proximity of the front bodes well for thunderstorm development more than it does for record-breaking heat here at the coast. And if the Bermuda HP flow is southwesterly some cooling breezes here are also a reasonable possibility with storms possibly forming on seabreeze fronts each day. We'll just have to wait and see day by day how this unfolds. NAM this morning came out with lower temperatures for tomorrow and Wednesday than on previous runs for whatever that's worth. But as we know, NAM is not terribly reliable.

WX/PT

[Allsnow]

Nice cloudy/misty day after a good soaking overnight. This will help going into the next heatwave 

[TWCCraig]

If today fails to hit 80, which it might, it will conclude ISP's second longest stretch of high temps above 80°F, tying 1966. 2010 had the longest stretch. Records go back only to 1963 

 

 

Here is the same plot for NYC (Central Park)

 

[nycwinter]

it is misty foggy and cool i love it!!!

[nycwinter]

i see quite a few people wearing jackets today...

[Intensewind002]

Only .02” of rain from my weather station last night. I’m in Virginia and last night i saw some heavy rain for the first time since like June. July finished with only around half an inch of rain imby

[SACRUS]

E/NE flow and clouds slow to erode.  80 looking to be out of reach.  I remember the 2015 streak of plus 80s lasting tino September.

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

[forkyfork]

the hrrr shows breaks later this afternoon so we'll see

[SACRUS]

55 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

In order for the hottest temperatures to occur we really need a downsloping westerly or even west northwesterly wind. In order to get that, we need a strong westward extension of the Bermuda HP and not too far south. While we could see that if the models have over-estimated the southeastward movement of the alleged cold front Thursday night through Saturday, I'm not really just yet sold on it. The proximity of the front bodes well for thunderstorm development more than it does for record-breaking heat here at the coast. And if the Bermuda HP flow is southwesterly some cooling breezes here are also a reasonable possibility with storms possibly forming on seabreeze fronts each day. We'll just have to wait and see day by day how this unfolds. NAM this morning came out with lower temperatures for tomorrow and Wednesday than on previous runs for whatever that's worth. But as we know, NAM is not terribly reliable.

WX/PT

Later Friday (8/5) and through the coming weekend looks a bit difficult to forecast in advance.  Could see a hung up boundary between the building WAR and the rim of the Plains ridge.  Not sure where that setsup and how long it linger before a more sw flow develops into next week.  One does see mich increased and improved widespread rain chances, even if that front / boundary is west, pop up Florida style storms are looking likely.  

 

[Brian5671]

drizzle and 70 here...

[Allsnow]

Bonus drizzle!!!

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Later Friday (8/5) and through the coming weekend looks a bit difficult to forecast in advance.  Could see a hung up boundary between the building WAR and the rim of the Plains ridge.  Not sure where that setsup and how long it linger before a more sw flow develops into next week.  One does see mich increased and improved widespread rain chances, even if that front / boundary is west, pop up Florida style storms are looking likely.  

 

Quite a difference from a few days ago when it looked like 3-4 days of 95-100 degrees

[SACRUS]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Quite a difference from a few days ago when it looked like 3-4 days of 95-100 degrees

Still looking like that Wed - Fri in my opinion, 3 days of strong heat.  Weekend, if enough sun could be very hot as well but it looks like a more cloudy, humid / stormy one.  Will see. This will be interesting to see how it progresses.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Quite a difference from a few days ago when it looked like 3-4 days of 95-100 degrees

Gfs and euro have been way too hot in the medium range. You can’t take those medium range high temps with any confidence 

[forkyfork]

lol the hot spots will be 95+ tomorrow with modeled 850s

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

lol the hot spots will be 95+ tomorrow with modeled 850s

in Newark yes...how about where the other people live?

[forkyfork]

who cares

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

who cares

[forkyfork]

24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gfs and euro have been way too hot in the medium range. You can’t take those medium range high temps with any confidence 

if you believe raw 2m temps at day 6 that's on you

[lee59]

Checked the NWS listing of weather reporting stations in our area and all were anywhere from 1.4 to 3.2 above normal. The exception was in the eastern Jersey area with Harrison 3.7 and Newark 4.4.