SACRUS Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If I had a dollar every time I heard that this summer I'd be rich. We are getting closer to some of the bad drought years but I assume the heavy rains of the past decade will keep us afloat for a while. Reservoir levels still look ok. So true third times a charm maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 All those storms off in the ocean well east of NJ and South of LI/ SNE visible in the sat image loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 LOL. Winter should be fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 43 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If I had a dollar every time I heard that this summer I'd be rich. We are getting closer to some of the bad drought years but I assume the heavy rains of the past decade will keep us afloat for a while. Reservoir levels still look ok. Its not like nobody's had rain in the past 2 weeks. We had several consecutive days of pop up variety storms mostly over the same areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: LOL. Winter should be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 5 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: You had 20 inches total of rainfall last year just for July and Aug?! My god,I don't remember it being that wet Yes then 10" more in September when Ida started the month. It was crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Its not like nobody's had rain in the past 2 weeks. We had several consecutive days of pop up variety storms mostly over the same areas Yeah it's really only been dry for a couple of months...our problems arise if we have very dry winters and springs..that's when our reservoirs fill up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 84 with a dewpoint of 50 here right now. A spectacular day, and this has been a great stretch the last several days with the very low dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 6 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Last year was 11.72" here over that same time period, so far this year 1.69" and my normal is 9.02" From about June to November I had 22.41 Not as juicy until until later in year for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Balmy 78 was the high currently 76. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 5th day in a row of comfortable beautiful weather for august not often does that happen.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 I went to marine park today. We really need rain . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Today featured bright sunshine and pleasant temperatures in the lower and middle 80s. In the West, Salt Lake City recorded its 22nd 100° day. That broke the annual record of 21 days, which was set in 1960 and tied in 1994 and 2021. Generally cooler than normal conditions will persist through Thursday. Afterward, a warmup is likely, though no excessive heat will occur through at least the weekend. Much of the second half of August could see above to much above normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +9.04 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.291 today. On August 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.296 (RMM). The August 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.337 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.8° (1.7° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 8/16 PHL: 85 EWR: 84 ISP: 84 LGA: 84 New Brnswck: 83 TEB: 83 NYC: 83 TTN: 82 JFK: 82 ACY: 80 BLM: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Out working in the yard today and the topsoil is dust. Just terrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 WHEN WILL THE NHC REALLY LOWER THEIR SEASONAL OUTLOOK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 26 minutes ago, CIK62 said: WHEN WILL THE NHC REALLY LOWER THEIR SEASONAL OUTLOOK? It only takes one to make it a memorable season but having a hard time seeing the lofty number of named storms at this point. Would need to be a non stop naming frenzy for September and October to get there. The 1992 season would have been a total late starting dud were it not for one storm - Andrew. Which oddly enough was classified as a TD on 8/16 - yesterday back in 1992. It did pretty much nothing for a week or so before busting through the TUTT and then going to town. Just entering the peak season now but off to a very slow start and we might make it though to CLOSE to the end of the month without a named system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Enjoying these refreshing cool evenings with no AC. If it's not going to rain might as well be pleasant even if it's not going last 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Enjoying these refreshing cool evenings with no AC. If it's not going to rain might as well be pleasant even if it's not going last pleasant means 80s at night with dews above 70. this is wretched 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 21 minutes ago, forkyfork said: pleasant means 80s at night with dews above 70. this is wretched 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Posts on the demise of the 2022 Atlantic Basin Hurricane season could be premature if tonight's' GFS is any indication. There are four hurricanes on this map. Of course the model lacks much accuracy but once in a while it gets something right. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 That pop up shower just gave a quick 0.64" to northern si. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 woken up by pouring rain i haven't seen in months only to find the tiniest of cells. 0% chance, completely crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said: woken up by pouring rain i haven't seen in months only to find the tiniest of cells. 0% chance, completely crazy. Same here in Belle Mead totally unexpected downpour at 3:40am The trajectory if this cell was insane coming from northeast and dropping diagonally across the state We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 With a few weeks to go, Newark is still in 1st place for driest summer just ahead of 1966. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through AugClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 3.57 15 2 1966 4.46 0 3 1949 5.68 0 4 1957 5.69 0 5 1965 5.83 0 6 1963 6.18 0 7 1993 6.20 0 8 1953 6.47 0 9 2010 6.74 0 10 1999 6.93 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 78degs.(72/86) or about +2.5. Month to date is 79.9[+3.0]. Should be about 79.3[+2.7] by the 25th. Reached 83 here late yesterday. Today: 77-81, wind ne. to w., variable clouds. Interesting Labor Day Weekend coming. The labor will be the cleanup from Danielle and the prep for Earl. lol. WHAT......ME WORRY? 69*(71%RH) here at 7am. 73* at 9am. 75* at 10am. 77* at Noon. 78* at 1pm. Reached 80* at 2pm. 76* at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Lol. The gfs with a stellar performance from inside 36 hours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and somewhat cooler than normal. A few places could see some showers. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 84° Cooler than normal conditions will persist through tomorrow before near normal and somewhat above normal temperatures return. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.4°; 15-Year: 83.3° Newark: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 85.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 85.7° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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