40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Why bother coming at Ray on a nice day like this get out and be happy At least the discourse over my posting habits doesn't detract from the quality of the threads as much as the discussion of actual weather phenomena apparently does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 GFS out to 18 giving eastern areas rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: GFS out to 18 giving eastern areas rain Maybe this is Brian's Redzone run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 It is a sizeable hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Looks like a global version of the HRRR/3k. LBSESNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 heh...restrengthens before landfall near PWM and drenches N NH/SW ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 What Even is this thing warm core? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It is a sizeable hit. It is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Lol idk if I ever seen models this bad this close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 At least GEM came west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: At least GEM came west. Same with the ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Lol idk if I ever seen models this bad this close in models tend to have more error in the summer versus winter with the shorter wavelengths and less baroclinicity. Add in convection offshore, a bit of a tropical influence on some models, and how small scale the system is and there's going to be a lot of jumping around. I have no expectations for this...just hoping for a decent drink. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 Despite how tilted the structure is early on looks like it tries to become vertically stacked and occlude rather quickly. Something to watch too when taking into account max rain totals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 12z frenchy cordero jacks my area up to AUG. Probably the kiss of death for mby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Yikes 2 F15s and 2 helicopters screwing north over my head. I saw two ospreys last week. Not sure who was in town. Never seen them before pretty freaking cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Feels like a January blizzard threadin here. so much catching up to do with a lot of pbp. congrats ENE. Drought buster in route. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At least the discourse over my posting habits doesn't detract from the quality of the threads as much as the discussion of actual weather phenomena apparently does. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 40 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: GFS is a big hit yeah not sure which run I was looking at but still decent. lbsw as someone mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: yeah not sure which run I was looking at but still decent. lbsw as someone mentioned Doesn’t really matter. Trends are to bring this all the way back to the river. I doubt anyone wants 5” for too much runoff and/or complaints switching from drought to basement flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Doesn’t really matter. Trends are to bring this all the way back to the river. I doubt anyone wants 5” for too much runoff and/or complaints switching from drought to basement flooding. yeah its widespread general rain which is good. tough news for the drought twins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Doesn’t really matter. Trends are to bring this all the way back to the river. I doubt anyone wants 5” for too much runoff and/or complaints switching from drought to basement flooding. There’s zero agreement to bring rain into CT. Couple do couple don’t . I’d even be nervous in RI . Messenger watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Good consensus for at least about a half inch of rain here...whether I get grazed on the western edge, or its LBSE TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s zero agreement to bring rain into CT. Couple do couple don’t . I’d even be nervous in RI . Messenger watching This ain’t a fast flow winter setup with long wavelengths though. There’s a ridge over NF and in the north atlantic to help nudge it west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This ain’t a fast flow winter setup with long wavelengths though. There’s a ridge over NF and in the north atlantic to help nudge it west. There’s no baroclinic zone in summer.. it’s fighting dry air / low dews WNW flow on west side , and a lot of potential convection robbing moisture transport. In the winter this would be a slam dunk to get snow back to you . Summer totally different . I hope your forecast of soaking rains back to HFD is correct . Lord knows how badly we need it. I have my doubts , but we’ll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 It's gonna rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s no baroclinic zone in summer.. it’s fighting dry air / low dews WNW flow on west side , and a lot of potential convection robbing moisture transport. In the winter this would be a slam dunk to get snow back to you . Summer totally different . I hope your forecast of soaking rains back to HFD is correct . Lord knows how badly we need it. I have my doubts , but we’ll see But if it has some tropical characteristics, then there will be plenty of moisture....just maybe more compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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