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August Discussion/Obs


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Well this clears things up:

 

Obviously quite a difference in outcomes and

noted substantial run-to-run variation noted in the deterministic

solutions. While the 12z GFS was a strong and western outlier, the

00z/14th GFS came in weaker and course-corrected east a bit closer

to Nantucket and the eastern MA coast; the 12Z/13th ECMWF on the

other hand was fairly close to the 12z/13th GFS, but it`s 00z/14th

solution also adjusted eastward by a significant margin, leading to

dry weather with a coastal low impacting Nova Scotia. The 00z/14th

Canadian GEM is something of a middle road 

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7 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

These run to run changes are comical.

Another negative of this evolution, if it does happen, is it isn’t going to be widespread.

Agreed.  Saw a new euphemism in the morning AFD from GYX.

Looking at ensemble low locations there is now evidence of
windshield wiping within ensemble families in low clustering near
the coast one run and a miss to the east the next run so overall
confidence in the impacts from this system remain low.
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