CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 Then there’s the 18z gfs LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Mid season form already. Doesn’t really look like a convection robbing moisture synoptic set up does it? The SE to E deep layer flow… usually convection disrupting moisture transport seems more like SW to S flow or am I making that up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 I'm enjoying the drought, kinda hope it misses 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Then there’s the 18z gfs LOL. Kind of like winter burp runs? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 L O effing L…the GFS is night and day different since 12z. That shit is hilarious. Low shoots off NC coast to the fish. Bone dry up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Then there’s the 18z gfs LOL. I should delete my last reply to Kev lol. Fires will still be burning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Doesn’t really look like a convection robbing moisture synoptic set up does it? The SE to E deep layer flow… usually convection disrupting moisture transport seems more like SW to S flow or am I making that up? Deep easterly flow is famously dry in New England. My quibble is definitely with his "always", as convection will induce a circulation of its own that can either enhance or diminish moisture transport. The circulation will be counter-clockwise around the convective feature, so a SW/NE oriented line of convection would tend to shunt moisture east. SE/NW oriented would do the opposite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 How does this happen? Super computers and such. Only 90 hours or so out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Deep easterly flow is famously dry in New England. My quibble is definitely with his "always", as convection will induce a circulation of its own that can either enhance or diminish moisture transport. The circulation will be counter-clockwise around the convective feature, so a SW/NE oriented line of convection would tend to shunt moisture east. SE/NW oriented would do the opposite. Ok yeah that’s what I always thought. I hate seeing those strong convective lines angled SW to NE through the Ohio Valley and into Mid-Atlantic in winter storms while QPF gets trimmed every run lol. In my head I always thought the more N-S oriented the “better.” Maybe not fully knowing why but don’t like anything /…. this vertical | or \ please lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Deep easterly flow is famously dry in New England. My quibble is definitely with his "always", as convection will induce a circulation of its own that can either enhance or diminish moisture transport. The circulation will be counter-clockwise around the convective feature, so a SW/NE oriented line of convection would tend to shunt moisture east. SE/NW oriented would do the opposite. Beer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beer? Whiskey-beer never fear; beer-whiskey very risky. Liquor-wine mighty fine; wine-liquor you’ve never been sicker 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 13, 2022 Author Share Posted August 13, 2022 Only 261 says until May 1 ughhhhhhh 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 GYX is actually participating in an experiment with a new visualization tool, mainly for support services, but I think it's going to have pretty large forecasting impacts too. The website allows you to play with the so called Grand Ensemble (GEFS, EPS, CMCEPS), including adding or removing members, comparing differences, etc. But you can also view individual cluster groups (pants tent stuff). For instance here, clusters 4 and 5 are the wet ones (12z run) and both feature higher than mean heights across northern Maine and the Maritimes. i.e. you increase the gradient and resulting easterly flow into New England. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: Whiskey-beer never fear; beer-whiskey very risky. Liquor-wine mighty fine; wine-liquor you’ve never been sicker Edibles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Only 261 says until May 1 261 days again until you're disappointed repeatedly for the following 3 months is a tough life to live. godspeed 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 49 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: L O effing L…the GFS is night and day different since 12z. That shit is hilarious. Low shoots off NC coast to the fish. Bone dry up here. As we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: As we thought. Glad its not winter. 3 feet of snow to high cirrus in 6 hrs. The traffic jam at the Tobin would persist until napril. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 Stein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 man 18z gfs is such a wet blanket. we'd be brushing it off in winter as an off run while deep down inside feeling a creeping depression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Stein 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 34 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: As we thought. Does this all the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Does this all the time It’s going to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Just hold the course. You guys are in mid winter form. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 It’s definitely a struggle with models about capturing the s/w and bringing it NW. That’s tough to model in the winter, never mind summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s definitely a struggle with models about capturing the s/w and bringing it NW. That’s tough to model in the winter, never mind summer. Do you agree about the convection Rob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Do you agree about the convection Rob? I think it’s more a s/w issue to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think it’s more a s/w issue to be honest. While the 18z Euro doesn't go far enough out, you can definitely see signifigantly less precipitation south of New England on HR 90. Could be nothing... or something got ingested into the 18z models that dried things out for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: While the 18z Euro doesn't go far enough out, you can definitely see signifigantly less precipitation south of New England on HR 90. Could be nothing... or something got ingested into the 18z models that dried things out for us... We tried to tell ‘em. I wasn’t buying the Paul pierce pump fake with these models showing a bunch of rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: While the 18z Euro doesn't go far enough out, you can definitely see signifigantly less precipitation south of New England on HR 90. Could be nothing... or something got ingested into the 18z models that dried things out for us... EPS is pretty wet still. We hold the course. I’m not saying 5” is coming, but I believe we have a good chance of beneficial rains. We’ll see. Still time to go to crap, but I’m hopeful. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is pretty wet still. We hold the course. I’m not saying 5” is coming, but I believe we have a good chance of beneficial rains. We’ll see. Still time to go to crap, but I’m hopeful. Seems like a cold season synoptic approach to modeling. We know there are wild run-to-run swings in the deterministic models so the next best utilization are the ensembles. The hedge is somewhere in the middle between nothing and 2-5”. Even a widespread synoptic soaking of 0.50-0.75” is highly beneficial. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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