SouthCoastMA Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro wet with onshore flow. quite different from the warm, moist, southerly deluge that was being hinted at 24-48 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: wet with onshore flow. quite different from the warm, moist, southerly deluge that was being hinted at 24-48 hours ago. It’s Stein except for NJ south and Maine 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It’s Stein except for NJ south and Maine clips eastern SNE too. I doubt it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: clips eastern SNE too. I doubt it's right Just another run. Probably closer to reality than the 3-6” amounts forecast yesterday. Congrats on the wet week this week there ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: When these lower dews coming? 72/70 right now. COC a dewdle dew 81/59 here. Think it's fully established that Taunton is the armpit of summer weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 Mm the 24 trend in the operational Euro has been to shallow out that 120 to 168 hour ordeal next week in the east. It matters because folks are asking for organized hydro but .. The problem I've been having - and still do ... - with that whole ordeal next week is that the total manifold of the trough its self doesn't appear to be arriving in the flow - the one over this next 24-48 hours, does. There after, the models ( all doing this...) are just spontaneously ripping the field open with lower heights. Then, as a response to that artifact, the create the giant 1006 mb low with all this rain... I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 Ens are still fairly wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 Remember, it applies to all 4 seasons now: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 We’ll get wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We’ll get wet. Right 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: We’ll get wet. Probably ... I don't believe the deep layer organization of that though. I suspect ( and am happy to be wrong if need be) the recent 24-hr trend toward weaker in the Euro probably ends in an open, non- closed depression in the field with nice convective blobs... That kind of morass can rain, even prodigiously ...don't need a helluva lot of triggers to dpour if theta-e's pooled and there's still relative summer sun cookin'. But the whole idea of a quasi E- jet anomaly over a 1006 mb low that doesn't move for 30 hrs strikes me as a secondary/non-linear wave manifestation. The 700 mb flow is vaguely closed with like 20 kts of circulation velocity. wooo. The models have been gunning for a trough along 80 W all summer... consummately having to back off moving inside of D5's. There has been a tendency to nadir the flow around that longitude ... but the models tend to see things magnified at this range. This time there may be more, then their detecting a little more trough through that lens. Heh, we'll see - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Probably ... I don't believe the deep layer organization of that though. I suspect ( and am happy to be wrong if need be) the recent 24-hr trend toward weaker in the Euro probably ends in an open, non- closed depression in the field with nice convective blobs... That kind of morass can rain, even prodigiously ...don't need a helluva lot of triggers to dpour if thete-e's pooled and there's still relative summer sun cookin'. But the whole idea of a quasi E- jet anomaly over a 1006 mb low that doesn't move for 30 hrs strikes me as a secondary/non-linear wave manifestation. The 700 mb flow is vaguely closed with like 20 kts of circulation velocity. wooo. The models have been gunning for a trough along 80 W all summer... consummately having to back off moving inside of D5's. There has been a tendency to nadir the flow around that longitude ... but the models tend to see things magnified at this range and their detecting a little more trough through that lens. Heh, we'll see - Yeah I always pause with mid season lows because we lack baroclinicity, but I think with that cutoff we’ll get something out of it. Kevin was worried it would be too far west, but if anything it may develop too Far East of northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I always pause with mid season lows because we lack baroclinicity, but I think with that cutoff we’ll get something out of it. Kevin was worried it would be too far west, but if anything it may develop too Far East of northeast? Right for the wrong reason. The mother f gets us either way 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I always pause with mid season lows because we lack baroclinicity, but I think with that cutoff we’ll get something out of it. Kevin was worried it would be too far west, but if anything it may develop too Far East of northeast? He will be worried any potential rain will be too far north/south/east/west until it’s actually happening and even then might not believe it. Stein has a choke hold. Cant say I blame him, persistence forecasting . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I always pause with mid season lows because we lack baroclinicity, but I think with that cutoff we’ll get something out of it. Kevin was worried it would be too far west, but if anything it may develop too Far East of northeast? I'm not sure the low ultimately closes ...and/or if does so, it may do so too shallow to force a response in the surface features. The trough appears to be deepening to me without an entry - it just spontaneously opens up in the flow. That's the non-linear/secondary result from changes in WAR moving E, and the ridge in the west retrograding ... I've seen the models do that in the winter, and they mistook as activated L/Ws - this happened in the 2020-2021 winter, near the end of January I think it was. It was more like a deep sag in the heights between - But you're right - the lack of b-c fielding is playing into that, as there's not enough thermodynamic feed backs .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right for the wrong reason. The mother f gets us either way How much rain do you forecast for Tolland for the next 7 days? Under 1.0”? 1-2”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 All this drought talk and I’m heading out to mow the lawn. Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: How much rain do you forecast for Tolland for the next 7 days? Under 1.0”? 1-2”? Based on what I see now.. Under 1”. Possibly by quite a bit. Everything went way east today . Maybe it shifts back west. Maybe it doesn’t. We won’t have a good idea either way until Sunday night. As of now.. I’d go scattered showers Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: All this drought talk and I’m heading out to mow the lawn. Hmmmm You also had 2 inches of rain and multiple storms this week . If you weren’t mowing something would be wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Based on what I see now.. Under 1”. Possibly by quite a bit. Everything went way east today . Maybe it shifts back west. Maybe it doesn’t. We won’t have a good idea either way until Sunday night. As of now.. I’d go scattered showers Tuesday Not sure why you cheer on drought in the summer with how much you invest into your lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 Jeez. I had not looked at weather stuff since yesterday. At that time it looked like a region wide soaker with just details as to where the heavy rain sets up. I come back now (without reading all the posts since yesterday) but I just took a quick glance at the 18Z GFS and it has the Stein continuing and getting worse. Almost no rain through 270 hours. What a change! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 18z gfs As soon as everyone started mentioning rain yesterday we’ve steadily been moving towards drier solutions. Like clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 37 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not sure why you cheer on drought in the summer with how much you invest into your lawn. I haven’t invested anything this year with Stein. I’m not cheering on drought . I want rain . But why would anyone be calling for heavy rains next week based on the pattern, persistence and how you typically don’t get flooding norEaster’s in August ? Why would someone think anything other than showers or a period of lighter type rains based on the look? Took a walk thru hood this eve.. there is something soothing about a drought.. maybe it’s the quiet , slow but steady early death of many things in early August . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 In about 4 weeks some diehards will be posting how they've fired up their leaf blowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 Neighbor across street watered most of July . At times he had 2 sprinklers going at once . He got his water bill last week. $575. Needless to say.. his wife put a stop to all of that in one fell swoop . We all have wells except him. Don’t really get it and neither does he. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Neighbor across street watered most of July . At times he had 2 sprinklers going at once . He got his water bill last week. $575. Needless to say.. his wife put a stop to all of that in one fell swoop . We all have wells except him. Don’t really get it and neither does he. I watered all of June and July water bill was $150 extra. Only watered the half acre I care about. I’ve given up since the last good rain July 20th grass is 50% dead now. Haven’t had more than a 5 minute downpour in 3.5 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I watered all of June and July water bill was $150 extra. Only watered the half acre I care about. I’ve given up since the last good rain July 20th grass is 50% dead now. Haven’t had more than a 5 minute downpour in 3.5 weeks. What have you had MTD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 38 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 18z gfs As soon as everyone started mentioning rain yesterday we’ve steadily been moving towards drier solutions. Like clockwork. The GFS total accum map thru 384 is Stein nightmare fuel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: The GFS total accum map thru 384 is Stein nightmare fuel Stein marches on. I bet that’ll end up closer to correct than the deluge of prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now