dendrite Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 30 minutes ago, powderfreak said: GFS going drought buster days 5-7. Just firehose of moisture on SE flow. We can always go higher. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 sucker hole near TAN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 That whole thing is going to end up soaking NW Jersey to PA and NY up to Freak. Models always underestimate strength of WAR. Just like in winter when it looks great for us 6 days out and ends up congrats Freak It just happened the last 3 weeks with the heat and dews. Models never had the WAR as strong as it ended up . This will get bumped and pushed west 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: We can always go higher. hahaha... drought over! altho, technically we probably need two of those. but like you intimate, if it is going to go that far, it may actually synergistically go ballistic and turn into a real fun headlines like, "After months of drought nearing critical, New England floods catastrophically" who's with me! Actually, though ... my gut tells me this is the typical 'seen through the magnifier' range of the GFS, and that closed pig it seems to emerge rather than actually arrive there ( that's a potential hint -), will end up being just a general S conveyor up the EC. The weekends interlude into 70s/50 chamber will give way to a subtropical sky and that big QPF spreads out over three or four days/less. That is a very late March look though, to have that kind of sultan low plunk in there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That whole thing is going to end up soaking NW Jersey to PA and NY up to Freak. Models always underestimate strength of WAR. Just like in winter when it looks great for us 6 days out and ends up congrats Freak It just happened the last 3 weeks with the heat and dews. Models never had the WAR as strong as it ended up . This will get bumped and pushed west To be honest when they go west we don’t even really get it up here. It’s more like PA/NY. SE flow really isn’t our thing, it’s either Adirondacks down through Catskills…or Whites down through Dendrite and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: To be honest when they go west we don’t even really get it up here. It’s more like PA/NY. SE flow really isn’t our thing, it’s either Adirondacks down through Catskills…or Whites down through Dendrite and SNE. Maybe more SC VT . You can totally envision the initial warm frontal push from the ESE drops some lighter rains/ showers over SNE and the boundary gets hung up right along the Apps with training., flooding downpours while we in SNE are left with Bermuda Blues and spot quick hitting showers. That’s how I envision it ending up 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2022 Author Share Posted August 10, 2022 I envision it being fake 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Kind of like the summer version of a Ray we at EMasswx arrows map. His first call gives him 1-2” feet and final call ends up 1-3” to wintry mix to rain to Dryslot and dim sun with big amounts WNW 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 mm.. one can envision whatever is needed to fulfill one's narrative - .. I mean, this engagement is not exactly held responsible to answering to a consortium of accreditation. lol But, the rip and read GGEM and GFS and their blend, is a straight up Nor'easter entry into an event that then takes a day and half to turn into left over murk. I don't even see much way to get the flow SE away from the coastal areas with that high N of the region pressing east, while that slowly busts open through those two days. It really more like just winds down to 74/68 with nimbus debris... I mean the whole thing still looks suspicious to me. They are way over deepening that thing..>They both seem to be responding to the non-linear wave function in manifesting that thing - not descriptively delivering wave mechanics into that region very well... Therefrom, then forgetting or ignoring the geophysical memo that there aren't enough baroclinic gradients, it's basically a December coastal storm 40F warmer... yeah okay - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Bring on a SE flow of clean tropical air with quick hitting showers. Bahama Blues! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Bring on a SE flow of clean tropical air with quick hitting showers. Bahama Blues! is that the Stay-Puft marshmallow man? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 HFD is 88 with a W wind. Boston is 70 with an E 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That whole thing is going to end up soaking NW Jersey to PA and NY up to Freak. Models always underestimate strength of WAR. Just like in winter when it looks great for us 6 days out and ends up congrats Freak It just happened the last 3 weeks with the heat and dews. Models never had the WAR as strong as it ended up . This will get bumped and pushed west WAR flex and we get soaked by this version of the firehose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe more SC VT . You can totally envision the initial warm frontal push from the ESE drops some lighter rains/ showers over SNE and the boundary gets hung up right along the Apps with training., flooding downpours while we in SNE are left with Bermuda Blues and spot quick hitting showers. That’s how I envision it ending up I could see it. The 06z GFS was sort of like that. It’ll depend on the mid/upper level low. We do see it go both ways sometimes. Could pour in SNE into Dendrite and up the foothills of Maine. Could also blast a warm front through us all and boundary stalls with flooding from like PA through Binghamton and into NNY if it’s super occluded. In the winter those are the systems where Utica gets like 30” while warm sector is into Maine. At the very least, it’s some synoptic weather to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Right on cue here comes the euro washout. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 4-6" for the coastal CT solar panels. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: That whole thing is going to end up soaking NW Jersey to PA and NY up to Freak. Models always underestimate strength of WAR. Just like in winter when it looks great for us 6 days out and ends up congrats Freak It just happened the last 3 weeks with the heat and dews. Models never had the WAR as strong as it ended up . This will get bumped and pushed west Nah, this is the one that finally soaks us. How do I know? Next Tuesday/Wednesday is Maine Public Lands' peer review field trip, this year in the western Maine mountains. These trips have drawn some interesting wx in the past: ripping TS with blowdowns in 1997 (Mahoosucs) and 2007 (upper Kennebec Valley), thoroughly doused by the remains of Katrina in 2005 at Round Pond (on the Allagash), rainy 50s west of Rangeley in 2010, rain in the pines Downeast in 2015 and 2018 (at the same red pines), dancing with Isaias 2 years ago. (1997 was in June, all the others in August.) We can't miss, this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: 4-6" for the coastal CT solar panels. Stein had a nice run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Stein had a nice run. Ahh yes the bullseye at day 6. What could possibly go wrong? Wagons west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Can definitely notice dryer air already mixing down.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: HFD is 88 with a W wind. Boston is 70 with an E Tip... When you have a second, check your messages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 You’re all welcome. I take next week off and here comes the deluge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 10 years ago Kevs famous Landphoon 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Make rain great again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Stein gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ahh yes the bullseye at day 6. What could possibly go wrong? Wagons west At least you have some wiggle room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 But yeah, no one’s locking anything in a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 EPS is wet starting Monday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Stein gone? stein has been smoked out of many areas, but is still on life support here. one more good storm and he's a goner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is wet starting Monday night. Pretty classic pattern for a summer deluge. Depending on the orientation/location of the ULL there could be a severe threat too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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