August Discussion/Obs

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Let's not rush things...

I realize summer aspects are not very well aligned with the majority/populace druthers ( lol ) of this forum ...But, it may be more apt to say, the recent heat wave's back is broken. 

Summer?   Not on August 10.  

Brief op ed on the pattern/summer going forward ...

I suspect the trough aspect that is about to incur along 90W will, like so many others both this summer, and since the GFS upgrades began parading out new versions like Pez candies in 2014 ... ( yeah, dubious beta testing), have proven exaggerated.  What I suspect is more likely, a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  It will have some minoring circuitous, meso-beta scaled S/Ws embedded, but not to the depth that many of those recent runs were selling. 

This may be true for the Euro as well, although these tech sources converge on that similar bias through different reasons. The Euro is already showing the relaxed trough at still 576+ to even 582 dm heights demarcating - that's pretty clearly a summer characteristic.  That's probably all this is - a summer trough/relaxation mode.  After?  I don't know if we return to the same look aloft and suffer some dimming variant of heat potential... I have seen/experienced big heat as late as Sept 10.

Anyway, I spoke a bit at length yesterday ... the notion of an EC paralleling deep layer flow - unknown strength but likely on the weaker side ... - probably sets up some sort of Bahama Blue type sky and air, after the initial trough thrust bobs down to about NYC, attenuating as it does... I mean it's not a huge leap to correct that way - the models are already leaning. 

It is largely a subjective notion, 'summer back break' ... but for me, that happens when the total synoptic scaffolding takes on the the first autumn vibe, with radiative cooling nights taking over the diurnal variation.  Something more like that...

Having said all that... I do suspect that we enter a tendency for +PNAP in autumn, its self, and faux the early winter by October/November again.

 

 

Right...to me, it means the apex is behind us and we are exiting solar max...just like in mid February when we have toasty tushies in the car. I did say we will see 90 degrees again.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

An 85/70 pattern to close summer is doable and hopefully that will come with more consistent rains. 

I think 90/74 or so is in the cards. 97/74 stuff is done. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right...to me, it means the apex is behind us and we are exiting solar max...just like in mid February when we have toasty tushies in the car. I did say we will see 90 degrees again.

Fair enough ...again, the subjectivity of the discussion notwithstanding ... but I would not personally use that bold concept in the same context as 'breaking summer's back' - that's a little incongruous.  

I think people "want" summer's back broken LOL   ..and we dance and frolic around the semantic syncopation, a groove that resolves the tenor by saying so, without actually meaning that.  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think 90/74 or so is in the cards. 97/74 stuff is done. 

Maybe it would help if we adulted this debate by way of one of two aspects:

A  ...  define a set of synoptic metrics once and for all, that when matched with verification, are agreed upon ... Such that if we broach those metrics it's game over - tough shit.  Even if some fluke after the fact 91/94/97/95/93 heat wave takes place, ...it has to go in the books as a post broken back odyssey/anomaly, not part of core summer or whatever.

B  ...  Stop using that expression, for ever!

[dendrite]

I usually break winter's back when the threat of < 10F disappears. Basically late Feb or early Mar when we start pulling more 35-45/15-25 type days. That's equivalent to fracturing summer in late Aug/early Sep which is right around the last chance for 90F. So I will say the back is currently not broken, but there are degenerative discs developing.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I usually break winter's back when the threat of < 10F disappears. Basically late Feb or early Mar when we start pulling more 35-45/15-25 type days. That's equivalent to fracturing summer in late Aug/early Sep which is right around the last chance for 90F. So I will say the back is currently not broken, but there are degenerative discs developing.

Summer took a line drive to the hand,  but hasn’t fallen off the bike yet?

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I usually break winter's back when the threat of < 10F disappears. Basically late Feb or early Mar when we start pulling more 35-45/15-25 type days. That's equivalent to fracturing summer in late Aug/early Sep which is right around the last chance for 90F. So I will say the back is currently not broken, but there are degenerative discs developing.

We need to invent an emoji that is both Like and Laugh...

But, this more aligns with my own 'subjective' take on it.  I like a coherent move in the isohypsotic layout toward a more autumn vibe, where it's not going to return because the hemispheric foundation isn't there. That's usually the the first two week of September -so in the ball park.  This is also tending to coincide with the night time/radiative cooling controlling/pulling the daily diurnal means downward - probably shown better graphically.  I mean, it's not uncommon to 42 a tanked September 10 low and still make 76 the following afternoon.. but that 76 is obviously a very different 76 than one experiences prior to the breaking.  ... 

But even these are vague as the hemisphere can sort phase above and below the autumn look over a 2 or 3 week period during stubborn years. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

There's some interesting features on the high res vis loop...

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Look up toward NS and trace that low level pattern of movement - it gives the allusion if not proof, this NE flow is back built way the f out there.  It's not just some local to eastern New England circulation eddy.

The other aspect, ...it's very narrow.  It's like a low level NE sting jet.  And it is very low in the atmosphere, because there are layers that probably around the 800 mb level kiting/pealing back NE over top.  

Then, if we look toward SW NH and NW Mass, the CU field is moving SE and it is mostly sunny. 

This low level NE "jet" is very narrow and very low tube of air that is really it's own environment - a wonderful illustration in totality of how we here suffer this kind of uniqueness that is really hard to find anywhere else on the planet.  

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Summer took a line drive to the hand,  but hasn’t fallen off the bike yet?

I’m afraid to know what he will do to himself while laying in his hospital bed. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think 90/74 or so is in the cards. 97/74 stuff is done. 

Sitting at a balmy +8.2F thru 9 days.

[Whineminster]

Lol early August saying summer is over. We're in the peak of summer guys c'mon.  Easily could get a 3 day stretch of 95 at end of August.

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Sitting at a balmy +8.2F thru 9 days.

It'll correct downward over the next week ..obviously - but...  that's pretty impressive as a 10 day aggregate mean in August. 

It's actually rather under the radar extraordinary - I guess that goes without saying as it was exceeding a record not touched in 111 years so yeah ..It was extra   ordinary. 

Anyway, it is much easier to put up a +8.6 day, as well as a week long, in January than it is in mid summer.   In terms of that relativity, a +8.2 in August is a > SD for 10 days than it likely is in the middle of the winter.   

Earth likes to correct the temp up in the winter, but there are physical limitations at the warm end of the spectrum.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fair enough ...again, the subjectivity of the discussion notwithstanding ... but I would not personally use that bold concept in the same context as 'breaking summer's back' - that's a little incongruous.  

I think people "want" summer's back broken LOL   ..and we dance and frolic around the semantic syncopation, a groove that resolves the tenor by saying so, without actually meaning that.  

I understand your interpretation is different. We disagree.

Touching 90 degrees again and having the season wane are not mutually exclusive to me, thus my statement is in fact congruent. I understand why it isn't through your lens.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Lol early August saying summer is over. We're in the peak of summer guys c'mon.  Easily could get a 3 day stretch of 95 at end of August.

Home-2022-New – Hooked on Phonics

[40/70 Benchmark]

It never fails....February and August both always feature the first people discussing seasonal change, and its always met with butt-hurt resistance  Its admittedly worse in winter....won't deny that.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It never fails....February and August both always feature the first people discussing seasonal change, and its always met with butt-hurt resistance  Its admittedly worse in winter....won't deny that.

Use logic though ...

It's actually probably more exposing who's butt is sore when attempting to end -around climate and logic this early in the year by prematurely appeasing one's self with incongruous claims

LOL

J/k dude

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It never fails....February and August both always feature the first people discussing seasonal change, and its always met with butt-hurt resistance  Its admittedly worse in winter....won't deny that.

Which is funny b/c it's getting into those transition periods which features the most active weather. Some of our bigger snow events happen late January/February and the past several years we've had some pretty decent convective events in August (and of course we've had some tropical impacts mixed in too). 

[Typhoon Tip]

Breaking backs aside ...  I've often thought of August and February as the real beginning of transition - so I agree with Ray in principle on those two months. 

It's like the zygote of the ensuing season's life, but still too small to notice.  Usually have to get several weeks and a missed cycle before it dawns on the wife, 'gee, uh...wait a sec. oops.'  

But us nerds notice everything ... like, exiting solar max this.  And 'shot across the bow' air mass that...  The truth of the matter is, it's not a hard seam in time.  It's like crossing the event horizon of the black hole:  you can never go back, but you don't notice much of anything unusual or different for the experience going across.  Pick one's metaphor.    But we do, as overtly focused folk, notice the creep. Some years it may be more obvious than others.

But it always strikes me as interesting how, the difference between May 10 and August 10 - excluding BD butt-bang years - is often much less noticeable than the difference between August 10 and November 10 ( sometimes even as near as September 10).  Same is true for February going the other way... In either case, those months are an blurred boundary whence the corrections moving forward switch.  

Think of it this way, in 45 days, we enter a month that has snowed some 10 event-years in the last 20      One cannot really know that from July 1 to August 15. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Breaking backs aside ...  I've often thought of August and February as the real beginning of transition - so I agree with Ray in principle on those two months. 

It's like the zygote of the ensuing season's life, but still too small to notice.  Usually have to get several weeks and a missed cycle before the wife thinks, 'gee, uh...wait a sec. oops.'  

But us nerds notice everything ... like, exiting solar max this.  And 'shot across the bow' air mass that...  The truth of the matter is, it's not a hard seam in time.  It's like crossing the event horizon of the black hole:  you can never go back, but you don't notice much of anything unusual or different for the experience going across.  Pick one's metaphor.    But we do, as overtly focused folk, notice the creep. Some years it may be more obvious than others.

But it always strikes me as interesting how, the difference between May 10 and August 10 - excluding BD butt-bank years - is often much less noticeable than the difference between August 10 and November 10 ( sometimes even as near as September 10).  Same is true for February going the other way... In either case, those months are an blurred boundary whence the corrections moving forward switch.  

Think of it this way, in 45 days, we enter a month that has snowed some 10 event-years in the last 20      One cannot really know that from July 1 to August 15. 

 

You are up on Brokeback mountain or coming home?

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Use logic though ...

It's actually probably more exposing who's butt is sore when attempting to end -around climate and logic this early in the year by prematurely appeasing one's self with incongruous claims

LOL

J/k dude

I honestly think its a bit of both on each end....but again, all I was implying is that the worst of the summer is behind us and we are exiting solar max...that's it.

[tamarack]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It never fails....February and August both always feature the first people discussing seasonal change, and its always met with butt-hurt resistance  Its admittedly worse in winter....won't deny that.

Even up here, most summers have weeks-long periods with high dews and warm/hot temps, but once things cool off for a bit, it's uncommon for temps/dews to regain that peak in August/Sept.  Last time that occurred here was 2010.

Yesterday's high of 66 was the first <70 since June 20; the 49 straight days of 70+ maxima is the longest in our 24+ years.

[BrianW]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Sitting at a balmy +8.2F thru 9 days.

DXR +9.2

HVN +7.9

KGON +6.7

MMK +6.9

BDR +5.2

 

[SnoSki14]

42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Which is funny b/c it's getting into those transition periods which features the most active weather. Some of our bigger snow events happen late January/February and the past several years we've had some pretty decent convective events in August (and of course we've had some tropical impacts mixed in too). 

Weatherwise Feb/March & Aug/Sept are my favorite periods. September is just great all around, best beach month imo. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Weatherwise Feb/March & Aug/Sept are my favorite periods. September is just great all around, best beach month imo. 

I used to really love fall and used to have equal love for all seasons but as I get older I hate fall and winter more and more. If anything it's just because of the cold. I used to have a higher tolerance for cold but not as much anymore. I honestly think driving is what lowered my tolerance for cold. I didn't get my driver's license until I was almost 26 so before then I used to walk everywhere (or take a bus...which still required walking) so in the winter's I was used to walking 1-2+ miles in the cold/wind/snow. It's just the cold/wind that drives me nuts. Snow I still love.

[WhitinsvilleWX]

41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I used to really love fall and used to have equal love for all seasons but as I get older I hate fall and winter more and more. If anything it's just because of the cold. I used to have a higher tolerance for cold but not as much anymore. I honestly think driving is what lowered my tolerance for cold. I didn't get my driver's license until I was almost 26 so before then I used to walk everywhere (or take a bus...which still required walking) so in the winter's I was used to walking 1-2+ miles in the cold/wind/snow. It's just the cold/wind that drives me nuts. Snow I still love.

I hate the cold too. But i hate March and April more. I have less than zero use for those 2 months. If I could leave NE and go south March 1st and return Mother Day, I'd be happy.

 

 

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Lol early August saying summer is over. We're in the peak of summer guys c'mon.  Easily could get a 3 day stretch of 95 at end of August.

August 2009 was like that.  Maybe only 2 days?, possibly more but we were roasting in the 90's later in the month

[powderfreak]

Up to 69F now at noon.  What a difference the past two days from the previous 3-4 days.

[powderfreak]

GFS going drought buster days 5-7.  Just firehose of moisture on SE flow.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Up to 69F now at noon.  What a difference the past two days from the previous 3-4 days.

Not really relevant for you guys up there but ... the last BD I recall was perhaps June - this one was "cloaked" in the other boundary, making it less obvious, but it was very real.   Spooky drowned sailor's shrouds ghosted across the sky under moonlight at 11pm last night as the smell of salt marshes penetrated the streets some 30 miles inland.  It was beautiful, actually...

But .. it appears it's terminating this hour as we speak.  There is a clear delineation on higher res vis loop that suggests the interior cloud level wind field is turning back W, while this roughly E of Worcester Hills struggle to pretend it doesn't have to give up ... heh. 

I have more direct, non-orb sun shining in splashes now and we've jumped back to 76 here in town.   Far cry from the 97 yesterday at this hour.  But, as I was pointing out this morning and is still the case... this air mass on this side of the main/real synoptic front is still warmer than normal. We are getting a disproportionately cool enhancing by virtue of the low level NE jet that materialized over the last 18 hours of this BD fist.  But hydrostatic heights being 575 still and even 570 mb up where you are, in this air mass...is NOT a CAA environment.   So clouds and other nuances appear to be ganging up - so to speak - in making it appeal cooler than it really "should be" -

I'm noticing now LGA on the NAM grid is back to 26 C tomorrow, and 25 at ALB... That's upper 80s in the 2-m - really where today still could have been down this way if this BD didn't steal time.  Interesting...

We all will, far in a way, get into a more convincing corrective air mass this weekend though.   Probably upper 70s here to low 60s in the summits up there, with very low DPs... 

There after, I'm still thinking that the trough retros and we start considering a S EC parallel Bahama tap.   Something like this as we write the last couple chapters of summer.

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not really relevant for you guys up there but ... the last BD I recall was perhaps June - this one was "cloaked" in the other boundary, making it less obvious, but it was very real.   Spooky drowned sailor's shrouds ghosted across the sky under moonlight at 11pm last night as the smell of salt marshes penetrated the streets some 30 miles inland.  It was beautiful, actually...

But .. it appears it's terminating this hour as we speak.  There is a clear delineation on higher res vis loop that suggests the interior cloud level wind field is turning back W, while this roughly E of Worcester Hills struggle to pretend it has to give up ... heh. 

I have more direct, non-orb sun shining in splashed now and we've jumped back to 76 here in town.   Far cry from the 97 yesterday at this hour.  But, as I was pointing out this morning and is still the cast... this air mass on this side of the main/real synoptic front is still warmer than normal. We are getting a disproportionately cool enhancing by virtue of the low level NE jet that materialized over the last 18 hours of this BD fist.  But hydrostatic heights being 575 still and even 570 mb up where you are, in this air mass...is NOT a CAA environment.   So clouds and other nuances appear to be ganging up - so to speak - in making it appeal cooler than it really "should be" -

I'm noticing now LGA on the NAM grid is back to 26 C tomorrow, and 25 at ALB... That's upper 80s - really where today still "could have" been down this way if this BD didn't steal time.  Interesting...

We all will far in a way a more convincing corrective air mass this weekend though.   Probably upper 70s here to low 60s in the summits up there, with very low DPs... 

There after, I'm still thinking that the trough retros and we start considering a S EC parallel Bahama tap.   Something like this as we write the last couple chapters of summer.

Yeah absolutely still above normal in totality.  Our min last night stayed +5 despite feeling refreshing… which says something about the prior air mass.

Were it not for the thick summit level stratus deck it feels like it would get warm with sunshine.

Summit level registering 53F currently at MMNV1 so maybe it wouldn’t warm that much.  That fits with near 70F down here.