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August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
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As a remarkably fortuitous result ...the 12z Euro demos precisely what I was illustrating with words, re my thoughts for September.   If one loops the his link,

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500h_anom&rh=2022083012&fh=loop&r=npac&dpdt=&mc=

 ...it's a beautiful teachable moment/product cinema, showing an absorption of western Pacific Basin TC, and subsequent large -WPO response immediately, then translates to a -EPO burst .. In fact, if anything this result at D8-9-10 needs to consider Euro tendency to over amp features in that range.

Nevertheless, if 80% of that mass field distribution works out, we're setting up a broad deep layer NW flow through the Canadian Shield.  It's as near as D9 in this movie above at the end of his run.   That's a bit sooner than even I anticipated but... like I also said at the time, this would be waiting on aspects to emerge in time.   I just didn't think the emergence would happen a mere 2 hours later LOL.

Anyway, the ending D10 would probably suppress the 80 isotherm S of the 40N ... perhaps deeper should it materialize. First western N/A

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It is burned out most areas. The rain last week did start to green up protected, shady areas to be sure 

It still looks shitty overall. The only thing is did was green up shady areas. I have a feeling the sun drenched spots are going to need reseeding. It looks totally dead. Stein did his work. 

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20 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Wtf, is that really in my state? That’s insane. 

I mean we’ve heard for years the NE Hills are magical.

The sunny lawns are torched pretty good.  I don’t see much evidence of trees/vegetation wilting but it looks like N.CT (even north of Kev) along the Mass line has gotten lucky a few more times.

My uncle has to water at least somewhat, haven’t talked to him as it’s a shared family area but it’s like Augusta National all along the shore.  Gets a lot of afternoon shade too.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... the DP's definitely closer to -18

 

man, this is hot as ballz down here.  92/69 averaging these town home stations.  KASH is 91/71 ... 

Thing is, we haven't really suffered the highest DPs imaginable this year... I haven't actually seen a lot of 90+ coupled up with 70 DPs, so today is right up there for that combo HI thing.    I mean it's not as bad as the history week of 98s or nothing no.  But it sure looks like summers back is broken, huh - lol

Car thermo hit 96F on Rte 2 by KFIT.   That place on the highway is always torchy.   Blah

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Really eccentric treescape this late summer. All the black birch  , yellow maples and much of the underbrush died and are completely bare . There are a few other Oaks that went brown interspersed. Everything else mainly green . So we almost get 2 fall foliage seasons. We had the one the last couple weeks of brown and yellow. The next should be brown , yellow and maybe some orange. With the dry next 15 days.. that should really Stein the landscape back up . Below was foliage season 1 last week followed by a pic this evening . You can really see how the canopy thinned out from Stein part 1 

 

q6gvkQi.jpgB5nI559.jpg

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Really eccentric treescape this late summer. All the black birch  , yellow maples and much of the underbrush died and are completely bare . There are a few other Oaks that went brown interspersed. Everything else mainly green . So we almost get fall foliage seasons. We had the one the last couple weeks of brown and yellow. The next should be brown , yellow and maybe sine orange. With the dry next 15 days.. that should really Stein the landscape back up . Below was foliage season 1 last week followed by a pic this evening . You can really see how the canopy thinned out from Stein part 1 

 

q6gvkQi.jpgB5nI559.jpg

He got us good. I note the same. I’m looking at an oak across the street that’s probably dead now. 

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Really eccentric treescape this late summer. All the black birch  , yellow maples and much of the underbrush died and are completely bare . There are a few other Oaks that went brown interspersed. Everything else mainly green . So we almost get fall foliage seasons. We had the one the last couple weeks of brown and yellow. The next should be brown , yellow and maybe some orange. With the dry next 15 days.. that should really Stein the landscape back up . Below was foliage season 1 last week followed by a pic this evening . You can really see how the canopy thinned out from Stein part 1 

You wonder if with the early leaf drop we sustain these higher daytime highs than normal this fall 

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He got us good. I note the same. I’m looking at an oak across the street that’s probably dead now. 

The craziest thing to me is you have been drier overall since May.. but he really crushed us here from about July 20- Aug 25. That period was insanely dry with just about everything missing plus minus a few days either side . That coincides with the hottest portion of the summer , high sun angle and everything just freaking died  . My guess is if there’s little rain the next 15 days as modeled.. we’ll see a slower progression of what just happened . Lower sun angle, longer nights should mitigate to some degree.. but things will slowly go back to death and Stein . Especially with low dew days . Those really hurt .  That storm we had on Friday took down all the remaining leaves that hadn’t already dropped. This pic below is from a few hours before it hit. Had a black birch drop all its leaves in one day fully green 

LNJn5vu.jpg

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19 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

You wonder if with the early leaf drop we sustain these higher daytime highs than normal this fall 

The dry ground certainly feeds back. It’s over a wide area too from ENY Hudson Valley where there’s fires burning tonight right to the E shore of MA

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/hudson-valley/news/2022/08/30/massive-wildfire-burns-in-minnewaska-state-park-preserve

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