August Discussion/Obs

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s been like pulling teeth in recent years to get it to bleed over the top and southward. We sort of got that in 2018-19…but there was a definite gradient with NNE being much more wintry that season. Unfavorable Atlantic hasn’t helped in recent seasons  

 

2018-2019 was a page right out of the 1980s playbook. It had plenty of the ingredients needed to be a good season, but the lack of NAO and absence of fortuitous timing killed us. We just needed a little help with some better timing to couple an EPO cold dump with a storm, but we just couldn't do it. You need some luck without an NAO and we just didn't have it.

[metagraphica]

59 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. We’ll have warm and dewy days thru the winter but sustained summeh is over. 

December 25th guaranteed.

[Typhoon Tip]

has to to break at some point ...

the problem is, not sure if anyone objective in this engagement/hobby/profession has bothered to notice, but autumns have been particularly topsy-turvy in recent decade(s). 

Autumns have always been changeable since the Earth decided to tilt with respect to the plain of the ecliptic ... but no: the scale and degree of stochastic instability is on a different level than the previous 300 some odd years of climate suggestion. 

It is summer and then it is winter and then it is summer ... prior to the winters sucking donkey ballz - that is the leitmotif, the recurring theme, regardless of ENSO this, polar index that, AMOCs and PDOs and whatever overly-reliant astrological teleconnector is in use. 

At some point, persistence penetrating through institutional methods should start to question the validity of the methods. Winter does not = snow and cold, anymore... It has evolved to = f'ed up.

The problem with that is... no one does, because it means no winters.  And then there is no forum.  Oops -

hahaha.  

No but my point was going to be, it seems harder to define a sort of 'week the back broke' ...  I guess the easy way to do it is to graph every years diurnal averages down to the day.  And then look for the inflection points. That's the point of no return - I'm wondering if more recent curves have multiples or approach that.  Of course...heat enthusiasts will feel jilted if there are still runs toward 90 F beneath a given year's inflection but.. you know, 'back broke' is bs in the first place and seems an unreconcilable  muse anyway.

[dendrite]

The GFS is still offering up some opportunity for bigger heat in the extended with the threats of some over the top heat plumes. Yeah, they're most likely overdone as usual, but the gist of it remains. Until we lean more cool shots than warm or kill the threats of big heat it's not totally broken yet for me. The euro suite definitely looks more tame with the heat in the extended after a couple of cool shots. If we can sneak some cold shots in the back or side door we can probably pinch off some of those heat plumes before they can really advect in for any length of time. We'll see. You can definitely see the seasonal changes in the modeling though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

has to to break at some point ...

the problem is, not sure if anyone objective in this engagement/hobby/profession has bothered to notice, but autumns have been particularly topsy-turvy in recent decade(s). 

Autumns have always been changeable since the Earth decided to tilt with respect to the plain of the ecliptic ... but no: the scale and degree of stochastic instability is on a different level than the previous 300 some odd years of climate suggestion. 

It is summer and then it is winter and then it is summer ... prior to the winters sucking donkey ballz - that is the leitmotif, the recurring theme, regardless of ENSO this, polar index that, AMOCs and PDOs and whatever overly-reliant astrological teleconnector is in use. 

At some point, persistence penetrating through institutional methods should start to question the validity of the methods. Winter does not = snow and cold, anymore... It has evolved to = f'ed up.

The problem with that is... no one does, because it means no winters.  And then there is no forum.  Oops -

hahaha.  

No but my point was going to be, it seems harder to define a sort of 'week the back broke' ...  I guess the easy way to do it is to graph every years diurnal averages down to the day.  And then look for the inflection points. That's the point of no return - I'm wondering if more recent curves have multiples or approach that.  Of course...heat enthusiasts will feel jilted if there are still runs toward 90 F beneath a given year's inflection but.. you know, 'back broke' is bs in the first place and seems an unreconcilable  muse anyway.

It does....depends on the season. Sure, it doesn't radiate as well at night anymore, but lets not get carried away.

Falls have been very changeable...agreed.

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It does....depends on the season. Sure, it doesn't radiate as well at night anymore, but lets not get carried away.

Falls have been very changeable...agreed.

Heh ... it had better!  right ? 

the statement you bolded was meant more in jest - humor... The missive overall is sardonic comedy.  Brewbeer got it - fw his emoji iw

That said, I would still focus on this: "At some point, unanticipated (adding this word) persistence penetrating through institutional methods should start to question the validity of the methods"

That is clad advice in life -  ...but as it pertains to this, expectations of winter may or may not "justifiably" include snow and cold - not engaging in that hyper discrete aspect. I am however definitely confident in the notion that they are 'f'ed up'

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh ... it had better!  right ? 

the statement you bolded was meant more in jest - humor... the missive overall is sardonic comedy.  Brewbeer got it - fw his emoji iw

That said, I would still focus on this: "At some point, persistence penetrating through institutional methods should start to question the validity of the methods"

That is clad life advice -  ...but as it pertains to this, expectations of winter may or may not "justifiably" include snow and cold - not engaging in that hyper discrete aspect. I am however definitely confident in the notion that they are 'f'ed up'

My bad, complete "whoosh"  on my part.

[weathafella]

Pretty hot today 

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Pretty hot today 

Busting balls cutting trees today but I'll take extended summer. It's always too short.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Pretty hot today 

yup

...I'm not fully convinced NYC-S VT won't cash in off of it with some 00z to 04z either spill over boomers or perhaps collapsing wind pulses and residual vil crawler lightning, under which .4 to .8" of rain

I like the 06z, 12 km NAM with that super cell in NW Mass   ...  

Just saying this stuff because I walked out to sample the air this morning, and the aroma hearkened like that first convection/dewy morning you get in early June. 

[weatherwiz]

Summer isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Sure we'll have some breaks with "cooler" temperatures and lower dewpoints as we near the transition season but the overall theme is going to be very, very warm and quite humid. 

[weatherwiz]

OT but what the flooding in Pakistan is unreal....gut wrenching really. Saw some videos last night on Twitter. Those poor people. 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

OT but what the flooding in Pakistan is unreal....gut wrenching really. Saw some videos last night on Twitter. Those poor people. 

Whaaa  ...  didn't know this is/was going on. 

 - although ..psfft, it's gotten to the point that someone some where is doing a 1::750 year return rate shit show on this planet, seemingly daily.  

You know, wild digression but general civility ( uh ...prior to the proceeding removing much of the "civility" from the complexion of our species) really needs learn to associate CC with two aspects. 

A global realm that is warming ....    +     destruction           

At a minimum, a destruction of the 'way life used to be,' when that demolition is not physical manifesting to life, property (probably should say 'geography' here), and infrastructure.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Whaaa  ...  didn't know this is/was going on. 

 - although ..psfft, it's gotten to the point that someone some where is doing a 1::750 year return rate shit show on this planet, seemingly daily.  

You know, wild digression but general civility ( uh ...prior to the proceeding removing much of the "civility" from the complexion of our species) really needs learn to associate CC with two aspects. 

A global realm that is warming ....    +     destruction           

At a minimum, a destruction of the 'way life used to be' when that not a physical manifestation of it taking place.

It's beyond scary. It's like something out of a Sci-Fi movie. A third of the country is underwater...I don't even know how to comprehend that. But yeah...these type of 1:750-1,000 year events are becoming more and more common. And regardless of the reasonings as to why they're happening or whether they've "occurred before" means nothing...that truth of the matter is countless lives are being disrupted and destroyed. 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's beyond scary. It's like something out of a Sci-Fi movie. A third of the country is underwater...I don't even know how to comprehend that. But yeah...these type of 1:750-1,000 year events are becoming more and more common. And regardless of the reasonings as to why they're happening or whether they've "occurred before" means nothing...that truth of the matter is countless lives are being disrupted and destroyed. 

Supposedly they had similar flooding in 2010. It looks like a nice standing MJO wave in the area doesn't help. Of course the easy finger pointing was on CC...but obviously there are other factors.

[dryslot]

14 hours ago, kdxken said:

 

[dendrite]

Yeah idk...we've always had major droughts and floods. We have a lot more people and a lot more of them crammed into vulnerable areas. I'm generally not on the more extreme bandwagon, but I suppose it makes sense that more water in the column equals more that is precipitable. We tend to live in the moment and get emotionally reactive to what we see in the here and now, but I remember growing up and reading about past floods, canes, heat/cold, and snowstorms imby and wishing we could still get crazy events like that. I'm sure we'll find a way to **** it up eventually though...examples like China seeding the moisture out of the atmosphere for their country.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Supposedly they had similar flooding in 2010. It looks like a nice standing MJO wave in the area doesn't help. Of course the easy finger pointing was on CC...but obviously there are other factors.

Yeah...I'm with you. As much as I am an advocator of climate change and fully believe it's occurring and impacting climate regimes, it's also important to understand not every single weather event isn't the direct response of climate change. They are certainly prone to these type of magnitude events given where their located and influences by such phenomena as MJO activity.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah idk...we've always had major droughts and floods. We have a lot more people and a lot more of them crammed into vulnerable areas. I'm generally not on the more extreme bandwagon, but I suppose it makes sense that more water in the column equals more that is precipitable. We tend to live in the moment and get emotionally reactive to what we see in the here and now, but I remember growing up and reading about past floods, canes, heat/cold, and snowstorms imby and wishing we could still get crazy events like that. I'm sure we'll find a way to **** it up eventually though...examples like China seeding the moisture out of the atmosphere for their country.

This certainly is a major factor and something that exuberates these sort of events. At the end of the day we're probably our own worst enemy by building and establishing livelihoods in these high disaster prone areas. I mean look at how many people keep rebuilding along the Gulf Coast. I mean how many times do you need to see your house wiped away to realize that's probably not a good spot? I'm glad insurance companies are finally catching on. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah...I'm with you. As much as I am an advocator of climate change and fully believe it's occurring and impacting climate regimes, it's also important to understand not every single weather event isn't the direct response of climate change. They are certainly prone to these type of magnitude events given where their located and influences by such phenomena as MJO activity.

And from a science point of view, that's ok. You aren't a denier...you are trying to understand how and why it occurred.  I mentioned this in the tropical thread....but what about the recent lack of tropical activity last few years? Tornadoes too. Perhaps that has a cc finger....but I feel like nobody will talk about it because it's not part of the "everything is getting worse.." narrative. 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah idk...we've always had major droughts and floods. We have a lot more people and a lot more of them crammed into vulnerable areas. I'm generally not on the more extreme bandwagon, but I suppose it makes sense that more water in the column equals more that is precipitable. We tend to live in the moment and get emotionally reactive to what we see in the here and now, but I remember growing up and reading about past floods, canes, heat/cold, and snowstorms imby and wishing we could still get crazy events like that. I'm sure we'll find a way to **** it up eventually though...examples like China seeding the moisture out of the atmosphere for their country.

It's a force multiplier. More people living in vulnerable areas, equipped to handle rainfall extremes/frequency of 50 to 100 years ago, are going to be more susceptible going forward as 50 year rainfalls happen every 10 etc. Maybe Scooter's 2010 flood should have happened again in 2060, but here we are.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah idk...we've always had major droughts and floods. We have a lot more people and a lot more of them crammed into vulnerable areas. I'm generally not on the more extreme bandwagon, but I suppose it makes sense that more water in the column equals more that is precipitable. We tend to live in the moment and get emotionally reactive to what we see in the here and now, but I remember growing up and reading about past floods, canes, heat/cold, and snowstorms imby and wishing we could still get crazy events like that. I'm sure we'll find a way to **** it up eventually though...examples like China seeding the moisture out of the atmosphere for their country.

We also have instant reaction to any extreme weather event anywhere in the world for the first time ever.

These things have happened before and will happen again, to what degree aided by CC, who knows.

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah idk...we've always had major droughts and floods. We have a lot more people and a lot more of them crammed into vulnerable areas. I'm generally not on the more extreme bandwagon, but I suppose it makes sense that more water in the column equals more that is precipitable. We tend to live in the moment and get emotionally reactive to what we see in the here and now, but I remember growing up and reading about past floods, canes, heat/cold, and snowstorms imby and wishing we could still get crazy events like that. I'm sure we'll find a way to **** it up eventually though...examples like China seeding the moisture out of the atmosphere for their country.

We also live in a technological age where we all hear about these things all over the globe on a moments notice.

The connectivity plays a huge roll.  Hell mountainsides in remote ranges have been calving off with rockslides and landslides since the dawn of time… now we literally have first hand cell phone video of them happening like within hours on social media.

No weather or geological event goes unnoticed by potentially hundreds of millions of people anymore… when even in the 1990s and 2000s you may never of heard of it happening.

Do not discount the current connectivity of the world.  A small village in the middle of nowhere gets smoked and there’s cell phone footage now.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We also have instant reaction to any extreme weather event anywhere in the world for the first time ever.

These things have happened before and will happen again, to what degree aided by CC, who knows.

There's definitely more frequency as Chris said. But again..there might be other effects that are not as bad. It's important to study both, but as usual....it's human nature to **** shit up...and that includes science. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

And from a science point of view, that's ok. You aren't a denier...you are trying to understand how and why it occurred.  I mentioned this in the tropical thread....but what about the recent lack of tropical activity last few years? Tornadoes too. Perhaps that has a cc finger....but I feel like nobody will talk about it because it's not part of the "everything is getting worse.." narrative. 

Great point...you don't hear much about the lack of tropical activity or tornado activity...and the lack of tornado activity pretty much the past decade has been quite noticeable. We are setting records for like lowest tornado counts, longest stretches without EF5's, etc. Was just talking about this with Vortmax95 via email. When you look at how low of a lull we are in tornado numbers that is super impressive given the technological advances we have and how so many brief spinups are being picked up by chasers or anyone really. Same goes with cold...remember a few years back there was that pretty remarkable I think late spring cold stretch into the southern Plains...wasn't much talk about that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah idk...we've always had major droughts and floods. We have a lot more people and a lot more of them crammed into vulnerable areas. I'm generally not on the more extreme bandwagon, but I suppose it makes sense that more water in the column equals more that is precipitable. We tend to live in the moment and get emotionally reactive to what we see in the here and now, but I remember growing up and reading about past floods, canes, heat/cold, and snowstorms imby and wishing we could still get crazy events like that. I'm sure we'll find a way to **** it up eventually though...examples like China seeding the moisture out of the atmosphere for their country.

Heh...   this is what "attribution science," a very quickly evolving discipline .. if for no other reason, out of shear necessity, is for.

We can separate out aspects like 'conditional vulnerability' in a process known as "scaling equations" - I'm sure you've been exposed to that, I'm speaking to straw people and the general audience here. 

But that leaves remainders after what has been accounted for in the total polynomial affecting/effecting the environment, and if that remainder satisfied the equation of AGW ( for example..), with very close tolerances ... that leaves AGW as a high confidence causality. 

That's how I've gathered the concepts of how attrib. works... And it's mathematic and doable/intuitive. 

2010 and now, are within the CC manifold, fwiw -

I'm seeing increasing frequency of attribution science - related findings landing on AGW ... and CC in general, as the problem. 

I understand your sentiment and respect it.  I could be wrong in the way I lean, but I do lean toward this being presciently suggestive of the future and probably not going to end well.   I LEAN.... ?  I don't doom...that's different.   

I'm trying to be proactively warning without sounding like a zealot - which is almost impossible in the present cultural climate of wanton compartmentalizing people into political and/or fringe lunacy at knee jerk scope and value... (Jesus!) whenever this subject matter "necessarily" enters dialogue.  But whatever... 

My biggest fear - other than babies drowning ... - is that these kinds of events will spark of massive diaspora/climate refugee phenomenon.  Like Serbian/Baltic region ...but happening everywhere like a slow moving panic wave...   Sounds like sci-fi dystopia writing, but we already saw a mini version of that when drought choked off the lively hood at sovereign scales in that Baltic region about 15 or so years ago. 

Anyway, that might set of geodesic instabilities ... here comes the wars... 

There are really two climate changes, with some lag.  The primary is the geo centric stuff; the 2ndary is the human response climate. 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah idk...we've always had major droughts and floods. We have a lot more people and a lot more of them crammed into vulnerable areas. I'm generally not on the more extreme bandwagon, but I suppose it makes sense that more water in the column equals more that is precipitable. We tend to live in the moment and get emotionally reactive to what we see in the here and now, but I remember growing up and reading about past floods, canes, heat/cold, and snowstorms imby and wishing we could still get crazy events like that. I'm sure we'll find a way to **** it up eventually though...examples like China seeding the moisture out of the atmosphere for their country.

Some of the disconnect about the younger versions of ourselves reading about disasters of yore and now is that we’re also way better equipped to handle them in many places. 
 

Like for example, ORH is never going to see another 1955 flood again due to the drainage and flood control systems put into place after that one. Tornado warnings are way better now and NWP guidance is much better now which reduces the risk of 1978-style traffic disasters. 
 

That acts as a mitigating effect on the weather disaster itself even if extreme heavy rainfall events or extreme droughts are more frequent than they were 50-100 years ago. 

Of course, on the flip side, we keep building really expensive homes and infrastructure in areas that are vulnerable to storm surges in hurricanes, nor Easters, etc. But that’s more of a human decision-making problem. 

[Torch Tiger]

3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Summeh ends tomorrow. Congrats everyone.

congratulations

[dendrite]

CC aside...I hope the RGEM is right about tonight.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of the disconnect about the younger versions of ourselves reading about disasters of yore and now is that we’re also way better equipped to handle them in many places. 
 

Like for example, ORH is never going to see another 1955 flood again due to the drainage and flood control systems put into place after that one. Tornado warnings are way better now and NWP guidance is much better now which reduces the risk of 1978-style traffic disasters. 
 

That acts as a mitigating effect on the weather disaster itself even if extreme heavy rainfall events or extreme droughts are more frequent than they were 50-100 years ago. 

Of course, on the flip side, we keep building really expensive homes and infrastructure in areas that are vulnerable to storm surges in hurricanes, nor Easters, etc. But that’s more of a human decision-making problem. 

Yup. To the building expensive properties along the coast point…it would be awesome to see a cat5 hit big money areas. Spare the poorer communities in the Caribbean and pass the eye over mar a lago instead.