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August Discussion/Obs


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29 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Easy there I only got .7” and my buddies in Shelton got a whopping 0.00” this week. I think they are under a half inch for the month in east central Fairfield county. 

same here-close to zippo for the month-hoping tomorrow gives us something...

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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We step and soon we rake.

I figure you're a man of

                                              'who cares how; just get it done'

..mentality in such matters, but that 'cool down' next week may or may not be real in my o

More so than just typical model uncertainty, there are reasons to suspect it is just a model artifact of typhoon recurving antics over the western Pacific ... Tokage is just completing that parabolic graveyard motion, and is being absorbed into the westerlies ...  As we know, there is a correlative for reinforcing L/W orientation, that lends to western N/A ridge flexing.  It's a correlation that is much stronger toward deeper autumn/early winter...but, mm.. I feel with the westerlies being overly active all summer long anyway, albeit high latitude, that "might" open things up some.

Question is, how much, if so... I mean from there, the models are routinely over amping troughs in that range, so given any excuse to do so, they'll likely try to sell that.   ... if Tokage does effect the wave orientation, they may have more of case, but climo says that's tricky.

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17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS bringing the freeze to northern Maine.

Of all guidance, that model will definitely take the opportunity at this range. 

I was just describing for Ray that I'm on the fence.

Model performance persistence, namely ...backing off trough bullies when relaying mid ranges into shorter terms...

But, this time, Tokage over the western Pac.   Thing is...it's a bit earlier for that correlation to kick in- but, the westerlies have been orchestrating unusually defined whole-scale wave structures all season. This latter aspect "seems" like the hemisphere might be more open to constructive interference - bit of an abstract idea I guess. 

We'll see.  

Usually we get a 'shot across the bow' air mass at some point here end of Augie into September.  ... like a 76/42, and the air mass bleeds out heat at sunset and the temp falls like someone broke the mercury bulb and its draining - it may be that either way. But in a ferckota way I figure some aspect of CC is to find a way a f-up cool shots, too haha

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Exactly. The updated drought map will look different. Tweeting that one is misleading.

The map is issued every Thursday AM.  The cutoff they use to produce it is Tuesday.  It is not like he is cherry picking.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

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The data cutoff for Drought Monitor maps is each Tuesday at 8 a.m. EDT. The maps, which are based on analysis of the data, are released each Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

 

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Just now, ineedsnow said:

was hoping for a Florida hit while I was down there. not looking like it now

ehhh still a long way to do. Who even knows if that system will be a thing.  I guess though if some wave can get into the Caribbean and heads towards the Gulf it will encounter favorable conditions. 

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